Supply And Demand Analysis Of Vinyl Acetate And Polyvinyl Alcohol In The World

Ethylene acetate

From 2005 to 2006, the demand for vinyl acetate monomer in the world stagnated. In the highly competitive Asia, although the upstream raw material cost rose and the market price of vinyl acetate remained almost unchanged, the demand for vinyl acetate increased by 5.8% over the previous year due to the recovery of the demand for downstream products based on polyvinyl alcohol. The demand for vinyl acetate increased by more than 5 million tons in quantity.

In terms of supply, in 2007, there were no plans to increase the supply and demand.

From summer to autumn, accidents happened frequently around the world, and supply and demand became more intense.

From May to August, the world's largest vinyl acetate plant, Serra's kiralalk factory, was declared an irresistible force because of the accident of acetic acid equipment, and vinyl acetate had to be substantially reduced.

Then, in September, the remaining 3 manufacturers in the United States (Dow, Lyondell, DuPont) also announced the force majeure, and the other regions also caused the situation of force majeure due to the continuous production accidents in European BP (July) and Serra's Singapore (August). From October to December, the supply and demand of vinyl acetate became very popular in the world.

In this situation, the market market will rise sharply in the second half of the year.

The Asian market has been in a low level for a relatively low level of $1000 / ton in the past few years, but it has surged from 1000 US dollars / ton to 1400~1500 US dollars / ton in 8~10 months.

Europe and the United States also had high prices after the summer. Europe rose 200 euros to 1200 euros / ton after July, and the United States also rose by 250 dollars to 1300 dollars / ton.

With regard to the new installation plan, the largest Celanese Co in the industry started to put into operation after the new acetic acid plant in 2007 (Nanjing 600 thousand tons / year). Vinyl acetate was also put into operation in the middle of 2008, and the construction of the new plant (Nanjing 300 thousand tons / year) is being carried out.

In addition, Sipchem is scheduled to build the first vinyl acetate (Saudi Arabia 300 thousand tons / year) in the Middle East in early 2009.

Among them, the Dalian chemical industry in Taiwan province failed to achieve the full load of 650 thousand tons / year equipment in 2006 due to the restriction of raw materials (ethylene and acetic acid) procurement.

In 2007, the purchasing difficulty of acetic acid continued to be roughly the same level as that of last year (70% of the production rate).

In 2008, the supply and demand of acetic acid will be eased.

In addition, it is estimated that China's calcium carbide method, which is derived from cheap coal, will continue to increase production. However, in 2007, because of the great demand growth in China, it did not bring much impact to the market (China's import of vinyl acetate increased from 210 thousand tons in 2006 to 300 thousand tons in 2007).

In the first half of 2008, there is still a tight supply and demand in 2007, and the tight situation continues.

In the second half of the year, Sipchem began to put into operation in 2009 due to the start of commissioning of Serra's new vinyl acetate plant and the increase in production in Dalian.

Table 1 main manufacturers of vinyl acetate

(unit:

Ton / year

Source: Cola Li

Table 2 demand and forecast of vinyl acetate in the world

(unit: 1000 tons)