US Department Of Agriculture: Cotton Outlook August

The US Department of agriculture's latest 2008/09 cotton forecast shows that world cotton production is expected to be 6% less than that of 2007/08 in 119 million 300 thousand.

This year's global output is estimated at 112 million 200 thousand packages. The main reason for this year's lower global production is the decrease in planting area. It is the second year with the least planting area in 15 years. This year, the choice of crops is more attractive to farmers.

2008/09 cotton production in the world has been cut down, and US cotton supply and consumption have been forecasted. Cotton production is expected to be reduced by 28% compared with 2007/08.

China's production forecast is slightly lower than last year, but production in other countries of the world is expected to decrease by 2%, to its lowest level since 2003/04.

In 2008/09, the US share of world output is expected to drop to 12%, compared with a 5 annual average of 18.5%.

As a result, the proportion of China and other countries and regions in the world increased to 32% and 56% respectively in 2008/09.

Figure 1 cotton output in the US and foreign countries

Unit: million package

Dark blue = other countries and regions in the world; yellow = China; slant strips = America.

August report slightly lowered 2008/09 US production forecast