Sun Huaibin: The Export Tax Rebate 2% Is Not Only The Game Of Numbers, But Also Needs Stabilizer In The Long Term Development.
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Sun Huaibin, director of China Textile Economic Research Center, spokesman of China Textile Industry Association, director of Information Center
Raise the export tax rebate rate:
"Pain period" into the "analgesic"
Since 2006, in order to change the mode of enterprise growth, enhance competitiveness and reduce the large trade surplus, China has repeatedly reduced the export tax rebate rate of some industries.
However, this year, influenced by many factors, such as rising prices of raw materials and labor, appreciation of the renminbi, weakening of foreign demand, adjustment of export tax rebate policy and credit crunch, the export profitability of enterprises has declined significantly, especially the export profit margins of labor-intensive industries such as textile, clothing, light industry and agricultural products have been very limited.
According to customs data, in May, China exported $14 billion 430 million of textile and clothing, an increase of 9.7% over the same period last year, less than 5.7 percentage points of the cumulative growth rate in 1-5 months.
Among them, Guangdong textile and clothing exports 11 billion 510 million US dollars, down 15.7% compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate also dropped by 40.3%.
Based on this, a number of senior central leaders in South Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other manufacturing enterprises concentrated areas for research, during this period, the "export tax rebate rate is about to increase" speculation.
Favorable policies finally surfaced at the end of July.
On the 31 day, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued the notice on adjusting the export tax rebate rate of some textiles and garments, pointing out that since August 1, 2008, the export tax rebate rate of some textiles and clothing has increased from 11% to 13%, and the export tax rebate rate of some bamboo products has increased to 11%.
The adjustment returned to the level of 13% before the two rounds of export tax rebate adjustment in 2006 and 2007.
In 2006, the textile export tax rebate rate dropped from 13% to 11%; in 2007, the export tax rebate rate of garment exports dropped from 13% to 11%.
"The improvement of the export tax rebate rate indicates that the government has conducted a thorough investigation of the actual industrial situation.
Through local adjustment of fiscal and trade policies, the aim is to achieve a global balance. "
Sun Huaibin, director of the China Textile Economic Research Center, director of the China Textile Industry Association, and director of the information center, said in an interview with our reporter, "although it is only two percentage points, it is not easy. It reflects the state's positive support for the industry."
From the current reaction of enterprises, the improvement of the export tax rebate rate is nothing less than the government's injection of "analgesics" to small and medium-sized enterprises that are in urgent need of survival.
According to Dongfang securities, assuming that the whole year is the measurement cycle, and all textiles are included in the tax rebate up range, the tax rebate rate will increase by two percentage points according to the 15% increase in the industry's export this year. The profit of the company will be increased by 2 billion 700 million yuan, and the profit of the industry will increase by 18 billion 400 million yuan in the calculation of RMB to us dollar 6.8:1.
What are the properties of analgesics?
Ease cost pressure is the best.
Sun Huaibin believes that the export of clothing is restricted by many factors. Global economic slowdown, weak demand will inevitably affect the textile trade; and from the perspective of domestic economic development, the cost of various factors of production is rising, making export enterprises facing insufficient external demand, and China will bear enormous cost pressures. Under such a tight environment, some policies need to be balanced. The improvement of export tax rebate rate reflects the subtle grasp of macroeconomic policies on the pace and intensity of industrial guidance.
"It is impossible for enterprises to change the weak demand of foreign economies. However, the improvement of export tax rebate rate can effectively alleviate the cost of domestic production and operation in enterprises, thereby improving the export profitability of enterprises, which will be the greatest benefit reflected in the export tax rebate policy at this stage. Sun Huaibin said.
Specifically, the export tax rebate rate ranges from silk, woolen textiles, hemp textiles, chemical slender short silk, floc, felt, non-woven fabrics, knitted garments, woven garments and accessories, knitted fabrics and accessories, and some other textile fabrics. From the point of view of the adjustment object, the emphasis is on the downstream knitting and garment industry. The ideal effect is that the adjustment of the tax refund policy for downstream products will help increase exports, alleviate the contradiction between the insufficient demand in the upstream and middle reaches, and indirectly support the development of the upstream and middle reaches industries.
In response to the current drawback of the export tax rebate rate, Sun Huaibin also put forward the proposal to incorporate home textile products into the callback range.
"China is a big exporter of home textile products. The export tax rebate rate adjustment does not include the products of the ninety-fourth chapter of customs tariff. The export volume of these products is relatively high in the total export volume of home textiles. Therefore, can we consider that the products of this chapter should also be included in the scope of adjustment? " Sun Huaibin told reporters. 長遠(yuǎn)發(fā)展更需“穩(wěn)定劑”:
Comprehensive bargaining power is the key.
After the increase of the export tax rebate rate, the industry has also divided the scope and direction of the "2%".
Will the two point tax rebate be rapidly diluted in the cost factors such as exchange rate appreciation and fierce competition among domestic industries?
"Those two tax rebates are not necessarily subsidized to whom. How can buyers, who take cost and price as the main measure, easily miss the opportunity to divide the cake?
"Raise the tax rebate rate, foreign businessmen will inevitably reduce the product quotes. In a comprehensive way, the income of China's textile enterprises will be smaller than that of foreign businessmen".
In view of all sorts of worries, sun Huaibin believes that regardless of whether the policy is "good", the "game" situation always exists in the export structure. In order to avoid the "2%" in the negotiation pattern, the irreplaceable core competes and the strong "bargaining power" will be the magic weapon for the export-oriented enterprises to stick to their positions.
From this point of view, the 2% digital game of external policy will eventually return to the game of "survival skills" of enterprises.
"Raising the export tax rebate rate will give enterprises a certain buffer time to adjust and upgrade. The state has given the policy and given the opportunity. What is needed next is the acceleration of the structural adjustment of enterprises. Sun Huaibin said, "pure" self help "or" excessive dependence on policy "is not enough.
At the same time, there is also a view that the adjustment of the export tax rebate rate may not bring significant changes to the textile industry. However, the first step of "flexible" regulation has brought new hope to the industry. There is a view that the export tax rebate rate is only the beginning of the callback, in the coming period is likely to continue to introduce similar measures.
In view of this, sun Huaibin's view seems more prudent. He said that the basic judgment of the national decision-making level on macroeconomic regulation and control policies is based on the analysis of the fundamentals of the whole industry. The industrial policy at this stage may be partly fine-tuning with the actual industrial situation. However, seeking "balance" in "stability" is still the main theme of the country's overall control of industry.
Sun Huaibin finally gave full recognition to the improvement of China's product competitiveness. He believes that Chinese products have considerable cost performance advantages and product mix is relatively rich. At the same time, in recent years, foreign trade textile and garment enterprises have also greatly improved the delivery time and the ability to quickly reflect the market. In addition, China's textile and garment enterprises have huge industrial scale, complete industrial chain system, abundant labor resources, and strong self supporting ability of the textile industry. Finally, textile and garment enterprises have a huge domestic demand market as a support and room for maneuver. Therefore, no matter what tone the policy adopts, the textile and garment industry will not be the so-called "sunset industry". The development of this industry is huge, and it will not be so vulnerable to decline. |
Textile and garment industry export tax rebate rate adjustment history
Since the reform of tax system in 1994, China has drastically adjusted the export tax rebate policy for the 5 time.
With the reform and opening up, there were 11 adjustments to the export rebate rate of the textile and garment industry in China, from 13% in 1994 to 6% in 1996. In 1999, the tax rebate rate of textiles was raised to 15%, and clothing was pferred to 17%. In 2003, it also decided to reduce textile and clothing to 13% from January 1, 2004.
After the start of the new round of tax reform in 2004, the export tax rebate rate of textile and garment industry has been adjusted two times.
In September 15, 2006, the textile export rebate rate dropped from 13% to 11%. From July 1, 2007, the export rebate rate of garments, shoes and caps and bags decreased from 13% to 11%, while leather fur products and viscose fibers dropped to 5%.
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