Domestic Market Of Textile Market Is Expected To Grow By 3.3% In 2009.
The main domestic market pressures in 2009 include slowing income growth, lagging consumption of wealth and lagging consumer confidence. Referring to the evolution of clothing consumption and macro economy in the United States, Korea and India over the past 40 years, combined with the history of clothing consumption and macro economy in 1992-2007 years, it is estimated that the overall domestic clothing market in China will grow by 1.3%-5.3% over the same period in 2009.
The export tax rebate rate increased, interest rates declined, the RMB was basically flat or depreciated against the US dollar, the cost of raw materials decreased, and the export market share increased, which constituted the main driving force of the investment export leader in 2009. Sensitivity analysis of textile and clothing consumption in major export areas is expected to increase 6.9% and 1.6% in 2008 and 2009 respectively.
China's per capita consumption of clothing and home textiles is much lower than that of developed countries. In the long run, China's domestic brand clothing will continue to grow. Judging from the decline of the domestic market, the brand clothing enterprises choose defensive brands as the keynote, and choose to run a steady brand clothing company to share the next round of prosperity, such as the American state dress, the wedding bird, the seven wolves and the Weixing share.
內銷：2009年預計增長3.3%
The macroeconomic forecast is slowing down, the growth rate of household income has dropped, and the growth of domestic apparel sales has slowed down. In the 1-3 quarter of 2008, the per capita disposable income of urban residents increased by 14.68% compared with the same period last year, while the rural per capita cash income increased by 19.57% compared with the same period last year. The growth rate dropped by 2.56 points and 4.15 points respectively. In the 1-3 quarter of 2008, the per capita clothing consumption of urban residents in China increased by 839 yuan, an increase of 10.58% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 5.27 points over the same period. In the 1-3 quarter, the per capita clothing consumption of rural residents increased by 150 yuan, up 9.64% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by 7.28 points over the same period. The sales volume of large shopping malls in China increased by 11.03% in the 1-8 months of 2008 compared with the same period last year, and the retail sales grew by 20.81% over the same period last year.
We have referred to the evolution of the relationship between clothing consumption and Macroeconomy in many rounds of business cycles in the United States, South Korea and India over the past 40 years. Combined with the history of 1992-2007 years of domestic consumption and macro economy in China, we have estimated the overall domestic clothing market in China in 2009, an increase of 1.3%-5.3%, averaging 3.3% over the 2009 GDP.
出口：預計2009年增長1.6%
Europe, America and Japan are the main export markets for textiles and clothing in China. In 2008 1-10, textile and apparel exports totaled 153 billion 700 million US dollars, an increase of 8.6% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by 11.5 points compared with the same period last year. In 2008 1-9, China exported 15 US dollars to the European Union, 25 billion 900 million US dollars, an increase of 33.6% over the same period last year, and exported US $18 billion 100 million, down 0.72% compared to the same period last year. It exported US $14 billion 600 million, an increase of 6.41% over the same period last year. The EU 15 countries, the United States and Japan accounted for 19.54%, 13.66% and 13.66% of the total exports respectively.
The main countries' economic downturn and the overall decline in global textile and apparel consumption are expected to import 5% and 1.2% of global textile and apparel imports in the US and the euro area in 2009. According to the International Monetary Fund's forecast in November 2008, we analyzed the sensitivity of the US and EU's import and export of textile and apparel from the global economy to the corresponding macro-economic sensitivity in the past 1990-2007 years. We expect that in 2009, the total volume of imports and exports of textiles and clothing from the United States will decline by 5.1% over the same period last year, and the EU will decline 1.2% compared with the same period last year.
Sensitivity analysis of textile and clothing consumption in major export areas, we expect that in 2008 and 2009, China's textile and garment exports increased by 6.9% and 1.6% compared to the same period last year, reaching 187 billion 700 million US dollars and 190 billion 600 million US dollars respectively. Our forecast assumes that the RMB exchange rate has maintained a narrow fluctuation against the US dollar in 2009. At the same time, we have cautiously optimistic about the US's policy of canceling the quota of textile and clothing in 2009, assuming that it will not introduce any rigid quantitative control. The comprehensive supporting advantages of the industry will ensure that the market share of domestic enterprises will be further raised by about 3 points.
The industry is dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises, playing an important role in solving employment problems. Further policy support will enhance the value of industry investment in 2009. The expected implementation and possible policy support measures for 2009 will include RMB depreciation, loan interest rate reduction and local preferential tax incentives to promote employment to enterprises in the industry.
投資策略：推薦內銷穩健增長品牌服飾和強議價力出口龍頭
Demand fell and unit cost increased. The first 3 quarters of the textile and garment industry listed companies overall profit growth negative, cash flow situation is better than the overall A shares. Industry 2008 3 quarterly report data show that the industry overall first 3 quarters of the overall revenue growth of 6.3%, the parent company net profit fell 2.3%, the growth rate is lower than the overall A share market, and the overall income and net profit growth of the industry is 6.1 points and 5.2 points lower than the 2008.
The main assets operating index and profitability index of the industry are lower than the overall market. The increase in the proportion of domestic Brand Company has benefited from the high growth of domestic clothing consumption in the first half of the year. The overall cash flow of the industry is obviously better than the total A shares. The net cash flow of operating cash in the first 3 quarters increased by 64% over the same period last year.
China's per capita consumption of clothing and home textile consumption is far below the level of developed countries. In the long run, China's domestic brand retail and dominant home textile enterprises will still maintain good growth.
Based on the judgement of the sharp decline in the domestic market, we think that investing in domestic brand clothing enterprises will focus on the defensive tone and choose a stable brand clothing enterprise to ensure that they can share the coming of the next round of vision. The current A share domestic companies recommend the American state dress, the news birds, the seven wolves and Weixing shares. In 2009, the industry export will continue to grow, and the export tax rebate rate adjustment will increase 2009 of the profits of the industry, about 25%, 2009 yuan will be basically flat or depreciated against the US dollar, the government's further policy support for the industry, the sharp decline in the prices of major raw materials, and the decrease in interest expense and other financial expenses will constitute an important driving force for the growth of the export company's performance.
Editor: vivi
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