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    Steel Market Adjustment Pattern Remains

    2009/2/13 0:00:00 24

    Since the middle of November of last year, "bottoming out", domestic

    Steel prices are rising all the way.

    Among them, the ton price of hot-rolled coil increased by more than 1200 yuan, which is surprising.

    This round of "continuous rise" has the factors of domestic steel mills sharply shrinking production adjustment supply, as well as factors of national economic stimulus measures to stimulate steel consumption.

    However, analysts in the industry also noted that there was a phenomenon of "no amount of rise" in the period of "rising" for a long time.

    Recently, the price of major steel products has finally been callback, and the atmosphere of market watching is gradually thick.

          鋼價又“回頭”

    In recent days, there has been a continuous occurrence of reporters' short messages.

    Steel price callback

    "Market information, steel prices once again" look back "trend.

    According to the monitoring of major steel information institutions, 9 days, 28 cities in China, the market price of main lines and rebar varieties decreased by 20 yuan and 15 yuan per ton respectively; on the 10 day, they fell 23 yuan and 22 yuan per ton respectively; 11 tons per ton fell by 22 yuan respectively.

    And the hottest rolled coil with the most uptrend in the past is the most obvious. The price of the thin gauge varieties dropped by 250 yuan in 3 days. Some people in the market sighed, "there is a smell of roller coaster."

    Researchers recalled that domestic steel prices hit bottom in mid November last year and then went up and counterattack all the way.

    Taking the hot rolled strip with a deeper decline in the early stage as an example, as the steel mill substantially reduced production, its rise became a "soaring trend". The price of hot-rolled coil in the Shanghai market rose to more than 1200 yuan in the more than 10 week period, an alarming increase.

    At present, the price of China's main domestic steel products has reached a high level in the world, and the price of hot and cold rolled sheet has surpassed that of the European and American markets.

    In the face of excessive steel prices, the market mentality is changing, and the price adjustment is also expected.

    But will the callback continue?

    How big will it be?

    These need to be observed.

          從“三方關系”看市場

    When reporters exchanged views with a number of industry analysts, we were all concerned about the three concepts of "steel supply", "market inventory" and "terminal demand".

    The "three party relationship" determines the quality of the steel market operation.

    In the past few years, domestic steel mills sharply reduced production and reduced supply, resulting in a decline in the overall stock market level and a steady market mentality. Dealers gradually have the ability to make up their hands to bargain for low price resources and start a new round of "library operations". On this basis, steel prices have seen a "continuous rise" market.

    It should be soberly noted that in this process, the crucial downstream demand has not been significantly improved, and the "final solution" of market resources is not very smooth.

    This "unlimited increase" has accumulated to a certain extent.

    Steel price fall

    It is inevitable.

    Some dealers contacted by reporters also noticed the problem of "empty inflation" of the previous section of steel price.

    Especially since mid January, due to the long holiday of Spring Festival, the demand for steel has obviously weakened, and the market turnover has shrunk, while the rising trend of steel price has not stopped.

    Until just a few days after the holiday, the "no amount of inflation" was interrupted, and the market mentality became cautious.

          警惕“單向度”市場

    The domestic steel market once again appeared "rising for more than 9 weeks" one dimensional trend is worth vigilance.

    In recent years, the head of a large iron and steel enterprise in China thinks that the iron and steel industry has been developing rapidly for many years, making the enterprise form an inertia mechanism, which greatly weakens the market resilience. This situation must be resolutely changed.

    When communicating with a number of people in the industry, reporters also learned that the domestic steel market often had a trend of "ups and downs". The key lies in the lack of its internal market regulation mechanism.

    If there are several "window" adjustments in the "continuous inflation" process, the factor of unlimited inflation will be digested in the "natural rhythm" of the market.

    Under the current situation of oversupply of iron and steel industry, the "non one way" adjustment trend is the most efficient.

    At present, the level of steel inventory in the domestic market is not high, but it has increased rapidly in recent years, mainly concentrated in the hands of dealers. This shows that terminal demand has not yet been restored obviously, and the market risk is far from being lifted.

    And some steel mills have begun to resume production, and domestic steel output has increased for 2 consecutive months, which has led to the rise in ore prices and so on.

    With the market factor becoming more complex, the atmosphere of market wait-and-see is becoming stronger and the market mentality is calm. This is a good thing.

    The next step is to see whether the supply of steel mills, market inventory and terminal demand can be balanced and matched.


    Editor: vivi

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