The Central Bank Unexpectedly Lowered The Three - Year Central Bank Interest Rate &Nbsp; Easing Policy Tightened Concerns.
The central bank has kept the 3 - month issuance rate on Thursday, but accidentally cut the 3 - year issuance rate by 1 basis points, helping to slow the market.
monetary policy
Tightened concerns.
On Thursday, the central bank issued a 3 month central bank vote of 23 billion yuan, issuing interest rates for thirteenth consecutive periods at 1.4088%, while issuing 90 billion yuan 3 year central bank votes, but the issue rate was only 2.74%, down 1 basis points compared with the previous week; in addition, the central bank issued a 35 billion yuan 91 day repurchase agreement in the morning.
Prior to that, the Central Bank of China reopened the 3 year central issue in the previous week (April 8th), and reopened the 3 year central bank's ticket for the first time after 22 months, with a scale of 15 billion yuan and a 2.75% interest rate.
The central bank lowered the issue rate of 3 - year central bank votes, which correspondingly reduced the 1 - year period.
Central interest rate
The upward pressure will delay the introduction of interest rates.
If there are no other operations this week, the central bank will net 65 billion yuan of funds through the open market, much higher than the net return of last week's scale of 14 billion yuan.
It is believed that this central bank has lowered the issue rate of 3 - year central bank votes.
3 year issue of central bank issued substantial volume
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Short term adjustment
The issuance of the 3 - year central bank will meet the demand for liquidity allocation on the one hand, and on the other hand, it will also help the slow-release market to raise the deposit reserve ratio again.
The people's Bank of China issued a notice on the evening of April 21st, which will issue a 90 billion yuan 3 year central bank vote on 22.
This is the second issue of the 3 - year central bank reopening in April 9th. The issue volume is 6 times of the previous issue of 15 billion yuan.
Nevertheless, the issue volume is still lower than market expectations.
According to the insiders, the issuance of the 3 - year central bank will meet the demand for liquidity allocation on the one hand, and on the other hand, it will also help the slow-release market to raise the deposit reserve ratio again.
The issuance of the 3 - year central bank votes has resulted in a net return of 30 billion yuan this week, which has increased considerably compared with last week.
"Banks prefer a 3 year central bank in terms of liquidity allocation."
Hongyuan securities
Senior researcher He Yifeng said that the 3 - year central bank has good liquidity, and the coupon rate has a larger margin than the 1 - year central bank.
Real estate regulation
Leading to easing inflation expectations and increasing optimism in bond markets will also help to increase banks' preference for the 3 year central bank.
Since the resumption of the 3 - year central bank in April 9th, there have been some changes in the liquidity of the open market operation. The most obvious is that the net volume of weekly net returns has been significantly reduced.
When the 3 - year central bank resumed, the net return volume remained as high as 110 billion yuan. Last week, in the absence of 3 - year central bank votes, the net return volume in the open market was only 14 billion yuan, reducing by nearly 90%.
At the same time, the pressure of withdrawal still exists.
citic securities
According to analyst Guo Qinmiao, despite the trade deficit in China in March, foreign exchange reserves continued to grow and hot money inflows increased the pressure of open market withdrawal.
Data show that in the first 3 months of this year, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by US $16 billion 100 million, US $9 billion 400 million and US $22 billion 500 million respectively.
The net receded volume has led some sectors to worry about the re raise of deposit reserve ratio.
Li Huaiding, a fixed income analyst at Guoxin Securities, is quite representative: "the net volume of net purchases is quite unusual. If the net return volume remains low this week, it may be necessary to move the reserve requirement ratio."
Xu Xiaoqing, executive director of the fixed income Department of CICC, believes that the circulation of 3 - year central bank bills has increased significantly, which is conducive to stabilizing the market.
The conjecture of raising the required reserve ratio is mainly due to the diversion of demand for the 1 - year central bank votes in the 3 - year central bank.
Xu Xiaoqing further believes that the deposit reserve ratio is unlikely to rise in the near future.
Generally speaking,
Increase in deposit reserve ratio
It will be announced in the first half of the month, which will help the implementation of the second half of the month. The recent increase means that it will be implemented at the end of 4, but it will soon enter the holiday in early May.
However, some market participants expressed concern about the interest rate of the central bank. Chen Lan, a fixed income analyst at Guotai Junan, said that the interest rate issue of the 3 - year central bank would not be ruled out in the future.
A shares narrowed part of the decline because the central bank lowered the 3 year central bank rate.
The A share market rebounded after a sharp fall on Thursday, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3000.
The central bank has eased the market's concerns about tightening monetary policy because the central bank unexpectedly cut the 3 - year central issue rate by 1 basis points.
On Thursday, the central bank issued a 3 month central bank vote of 23 billion yuan, issuing interest rates for thirteenth consecutive periods at 1.4088%, while issuing 90 billion yuan 3 year central bank votes, but the issue rate was only 2.74%, down 1 basis points compared with the previous week; in addition, the central bank issued a 35 billion yuan 91 day repurchase agreement in the morning.
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