Chen Changhua: Who Paid For The Collapse Of Real Estate?

According to scholars, since 2004, the growth rate of real estate prices in major cities in China has been comparable to those in the United States, such as New York and San Francisco.

If measured by indicators, the United States in the past few years rose by 120%, while China's real estate prices generally rose by 200%, let alone Hainan, "rocket launch" speed up, the increase is large, the speed is alarming.

Chen Changhua pointed out that the property market is experiencing the madness between the bubble burst and staged the "last tango".

Whether residents or real estate investors, "basically do not put the government in their eyes."

The reason for this is that everyone can see clearly that as long as the government is determined, real estate prices can be stabilized, but what is missing is precisely the "determination".

And investors are more aware that if the government wants to achieve the goal of "price stability", the government should effectively regulate the real estate market, and must have the psychological preparation of "beating down".

If it is not for this determination, the price will not be stable, but will continue to rise.

Chen Changhua pointed out that the main force that caused the rapid rise of real estate prices is not local residents but investors in the field.

Take Haikou as an example, a villa price of 300 square meters has reached 60 million yuan or even 100 million yuan, which is equivalent to the highest price in the world's first tier cities.

More than 95% of those who buy houses are not local people.

Chen Changhua believes that once the real estate bubble burst, it is the residents who are irrational to enter the market.

Despite the controversy over the "rigid demand for housing", in fact, the demand for autonomous housing for ordinary residents other than investors has been exaggerated.

Take housing capability as an example, now many people will use levers that are equivalent to 50 times to 100 times their annual income, and the whole family can collect money or even buy houses together for generations.

This is actually beyond its original housing needs.

The reason why people do this is to believe that "housing prices will rise or fall".

In the early 90s, Hongkong and Japan in 80s made the same mistake.

"This is a very dangerous thing in itself."

Chen Changhua stressed that in addition to these blind ordinary consumers entering the market, the lack of independent judgement of investors is also the future "real estate bubble" after the "pick up".

Investment accounts for more than 30% of major cities in China.

The price of these people entering the market is almost twice that of the reasonable housing price.

In other words, half of the sales amount in the real estate market is borne by investors.

Most investors also hold this belief that "the real estate market can not be adjusted" and firmly believe that once the adjustment is made, local finance will not be able to support it, while China will not have the problem of "government bankruptcy".

However, according to the 2010 budget, "land sales" account for only about 20% of the central and local fiscal revenue. It is not considered reliable that the central government dare not move the housing market.

Chen Changhua stressed that if we do not grasp the opportunity to adjust, once the real estate problems also occur.

Chen Changhua believes that in 2009, China's economy was stable at the beginning, which was the most favorable time to adjust the healthy development of the real estate market. However, the money supply increased too fast, and the liquidity in the short term was too large, resulting in a large amount of capital flowing to the real estate market.

The consequence is to increase the difficulty of subsequent adjustments.

But he said, "if it's not right now, it will be even harder by 2012."

China is at a crossroads. If the government fails to reduce the real estate prices, it will surely have a "comprehensive real estate bubble".

Now, "it is not the question of whether to tune up, but whether it can be adjusted, adjusted or adjusted".