Spandex Industry Or Downward Turning Point Now

Is the spandex industry's current lifting price accelerating? Look at the number of people, look at the price of oil, spandex where the inflection point, the industry is more clear than us, and they are more risk factors.

In April 9th, Spandex Industry Association raised the price of spandex 40D to 59000-60000 yuan / ton. If the price increase in 2009 has made the spandex industry turn round and become a profit, the price increase this year has completely rid itself of the declining trend. Reporters learned that some of the spandex business real gross profit margin has exceeded 20%. After raising the price, the market further appears optimistic, the risk will be thrown to the brain, the spandex price inflection point will be unknowingly approaching in the future.

Although the industry association has raised the price, the downstream manufacturers' price list for spandex 40D still stays at 57000 yuan / ton. As downstream textile and garment enterprises are more cautious about subsequent orders, they tend to use pre - hoarding stock production, and dealers are eager to make profits at preferential prices. Obviously, the target price of 60000 yuan / ton still needs a process.

Jiang Jianren, an expert in Keqiao textile Index Office, believes that the maximum price of spandex 40D will reach 65000 yuan / ton during the current boom cycle, and then a downward turning point will be formed. At present, spandex 40D has a maximum price of 14%. Although the price of spandex continues to rise, Jiang Jianren believes that the performance of the spandex listed companies is too high. "Earnings per share in 2010 should be below 1 yuan."

There is no room for further improvement.

Spandex is known as "industrial monosodium glutamate" for textile. As a fabric additive, it only accounts for 3%, so the price increase is relatively easy. Its function is to make the fabric soft and elastic. Jiang Jianren thinks that although spandex is a necessity of high-grade fabrics, its consumption is not static. If the spandex price is too high, the downstream will sacrifice part of the fabric elasticity and reduce the amount of spandex, or choose alternative materials for lower cost.

At present, the downstream demand of spandex has rebounded strongly. The yarn utilization rate (85% of the spandex requirement) is about 80%, and the warp knitting operation rate is close to 80%. When the boom is at its peak, the starting rate of the yarn is 90%, in fact, there is little room for improvement. At present, the overall operating rate of textile enterprises is 85%, and the best time is only 90%.

The textile industry is recovering strongly now. On the basis of ensuring domestic demand, exports have improved significantly. Jiang Jianren said that from the textile export volume, there is still about 20% of the space before the peak of the economic crisis can be restored, and textile exports reach the top, while spandex is also at the top.

Exports continue to recover, but the demand for downstream textile products may increase slowly, mainly due to the limited labor force. Zhu Yong, vice president of Shanghai Textile Holding (Group) company, said that the order and operating rate of textile enterprises are generally very full, and they want to further increase their production capacity, but the workers are not enough. Now, the salary of 1500 yuan / month in Shanghai has not been able to stabilize the front-line textile workers and have greater mobility.

If labor intensive industries fail to solve human problems, the growth of capacity will be limited, which will transmit to the demand of upstream spandex, which has become a more prominent contradiction in the industry.

Zhu Yong said that the textile enterprises that survived after the financial crisis have improved. The export orders in the first two months of this year are full of foreign retailers' demand for replenishment. But the good times did not last long. In March, the export of garment and textile decreased year-on-year, and the ratio of ring to belt decreased, even lower than that in March 2009. It can be seen that the overall consumption abroad is still at a low ebb. Zhu Yong believes that although exports still have room for growth, it will be completed in a way that allows time for space exchange. There is no possibility of explosive growth.

Capacity expansion exceeded expectations

The gross profit margin of the spandex industry is positively related to the oil price. The highest gross profit margin of the listed company is 40%, which occurred at the time when the oil price was 140 US dollars / barrel, and the gross gross profit margin of the industry was 30% at that time, which has attracted a large amount of capital intervention.

Spandex industry cycle is very short, only 2-3 years. According to Wang Qianjin, head of the first textile network, it is only 400 million -5 billion yuan for the production of 10 thousand tons of capacity, and it can be put into operation in 1 years or so. In addition, the technical threshold is also getting lower and lower. "Five years ago, the threshold is high, and now even the machinery and equipment are nationalized."

According to statistics, in the fourth quarter of 2010, the spandex industry will have Yantai spandex (002254, stock bar), Xiao Xing Zhuhai, Jiangsu Tai Guang, Hangzhou blue peacock, Ying Wei Da Foshan, Shaoxing Huahai nearly 40 thousand tons of new capacity put into operation. With the improvement of exports, the new spandex capacity expansion plan has also begun to appear. Taking listed companies as an example, Yantai spandex announced in March 15th that a new annual production of 7000 tons of comfortable spandex project is expected to be put into operation in 14 months. The bankrupt production enterprises are also rebuilding their capacity to restore production. For example, the spandex has been reorganized, and it is understood that its planning capacity is tens of thousands of tons.

Two years ago, spandex downward inflection point occurred, the domestic CPI remained high, the government tightened up efforts, while labor costs rose, the renminbi continued to appreciate, the expansion of new capacity spandex industry is facing difficulties.