Today'S Point Of View: Quantity Can Restrain The Rebound Of &Nbsp; Two Types Of Stocks Or Excessive Returns.

One point: real estate stocks rebound is difficult to continue investment value has not yet appeared

Real estate stocks led another day tour market?

When it comes to the persistent problem of big market rebound, Yuan Hao believes that the factors behind the real estate stocks are too complex.

He then made a detailed analysis:

First of all, management faces the "dilemma" of regulating the real estate market and maintaining economic growth.

On the one hand, housing prices will not come down, and the housing market will not cool down. The high asset bubble will bring endless troubles to the sustainable development of the economy. On the other hand, in the "three carriages" of China's economic growth, fixed assets investment is its "big head", and the real estate in this "big head" is also an important part of it, so it is "the most important thing".

Secondly, there are differences in interests between the central government and local governments in regulating the real estate market.

Many local governments rely on land sales to maintain financial revenue. Once the housing market is cooling down, land prices will drop, and will their revenues be "wasted"?

Third, the real estate regulation is also facing the problem of whether the urbanization process will slow down.

The central economic work conference decided to promote urbanization.

"Urbanization" naturally requires farmers to go to cities. Farmers need housing in the cities. Now some cities restrict the purchase of foreign population.

Based on the above analysis, Yuan Hao believes that there are too many variables that affect the future market of real estate stocks. It is difficult to give a clear road map.

Real estate investment opportunities have not yet appeared

The real estate sector swept the haze yesterday and rebounded sharply.

For yesterday's strong rebound in the real estate sector, the fund is divided.

Most funds believe that the valuation of real estate stocks does not mean the arrival of investment opportunities, and still see the post market performance of real estate stocks.

However, some individual fund managers indicated that in the medium term, the returns of real estate stocks were significantly greater than risks.

Two point: the rebound should not be too optimistic 5.19 market difficult to reproduce

Although there are still three hidden dangers in A shares, the 5. 19 market is hard to come by today.

Analysts suggested that high expectations should not be given for this rally.

After all, on the policy of real estate regulation, management has great determination. In the future, we will not rule out further measures. Under the regulation and control, coupled with the upgrading of overseas financial crisis, China's exports will be affected.

The future direction of the economy is full of uncertainty.

Hualong securities analyst Niu Yang believes that when the sharp fall on Monday, left a gap gap, the gap is located at 2663 ~2678 points, this gap will be a pressure on the future rebound of A shares.

At the same time, the pressure on the 2600 points is also greater, so it is suggested that investors with heavier positions will gradually reduce their positions in the rebound process.

We can pay close attention to the opportunities of Xinjiang, Tibet and other regional plates.

Overshoot rebounded unspeakable risk is gone

Yesterday, real estate and banks once again acted as security guards to push the stock market index of two cities to return.

Recalling the current round of adjustment since April 16th, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by more than 20%, and market sentiment has suffered a setback. Bear market sentiment has dominated the market.

We believe that the real estate stocks that led to the stock market decline and dominated the rebound yesterday did not completely withdraw from the release stage of the policy risk. And yesterday, the large area breaking of the new shares also showed that the valuation is still in the correction period. In addition, the A share performance profit forecast declined during the year to become a probability event.

Therefore, we believe that yesterday's two cities' bottom rebound is a technical overshoot, and the establishment of a stable market structure will still be questioned.

Shenyin Wanguo: Shanghai index 2700 points line is hard to overtake

Can such a rebound continue?

It should be said that the possibility is not big.

This is because the downside is due to systemic risk, and the rebound is based on technical reasons, and the strength between them is unbalanced, so the rebound can not be further promoted.

Further, even if the new regulation policy will not be introduced immediately after the latter stage, it will be enough to implement the existing policies, which will be enough pressure on the market.

Therefore, in the absence of fundamental changes and policy changes, it is not possible to expect a reversal of upward trend in the market.

From this, it is not difficult to infer that the current market is only a short-term rebound, and its space will not be very large. The Shanghai stock market is hard to surmount at 2700 points.

Of course, when a technical rebound occurs, and this rebound has certain strength, it can be understood that the market is spontaneously bottoming, that is, from unilateral decline to low position.

Generally speaking, this is a relatively long process, which is full of repetition. People should have enough patience and sufficient preparations in operation.

Everbright Securities: the market entered the unilateral adjustment stage, the rebound space is limited.

From the perspective of CPI operation and large scale IPO, there are still many factors leading to market vacant factors.

The NDRC predicted Tuesday that the overall price level of residents will remain small in the two quarter, and that the CPI increase will probably be around 3% in the next two months.

From the relevant expression of inflation expectations, monthly CPI exceeding 3% is likely to trigger the central bank to use price tools to control.

In addition, from the perspective of large-scale IPO process, ABC has speeded up the A+H listing process since early May when Agricultural Bank of China submitted regulatory applications to the two regulators, and the target was listed in July.

Overall, in the unilateral adjustment of the market, there will be a continuous rebound and anti smoking.

But investors should mainly follow the general direction and cautiously handle minor trends.

Investors who want to rebound heavily should pay close attention to the risks.

Three point: main trend and current investment opportunities

Billions of dollars in cargo insurance fund products slump, the main body substantially increased

NetEase finance and economics learned that from 2600 point of view, insurance funds began to take a big hit, and more and more organizations began to agree that it is now the bottom of the stage.

Recently, a large fund company investment director said that China life last week applied for about 10000000000 of the fund, while Ping An also had a large number of subscription funds.

Yesterday's market crash again brought a new buying opportunity to insurance funds. It is reported that on the 17 day, China life again spent more than 1 billion of its purchases.

Guotai Junan: the two largest shareholder is expected to bring excess profits to the company.

Guotai Junan issued a report recently that although the major shareholders have increased their holdings after the recent market crash, they are not all recognized by underestimation of stock price. Therefore, we can not simply take the increase of large shareholders as the bottom of the market.

But we can find out two kinds of investment opportunities: one is the commitment of large shareholders, and another is the refinancing scheme of listed companies. The other is that the company's refinancing plan has been approved by the securities and Futures Commission, and the current share price has fallen below the issuance price.