Ping An Securities Week Strategy: The Weak Arrangement Pattern Is Difficult To Fundamentally Change.

Before the two major risk factors that affect the short-term market, real estate regulation and European debt crisis are not clear, the A stock market's weak arrangement pattern is still difficult to fundamentally change.

1, Hungary called the financial difficulties facing the market nerves, indicating that market confidence is still fragile.

Last Friday, the Hungarian government said it was facing a Greek style sovereign debt crisis.

Although Hungary's current financial situation is much better than Greece's, its possibility of a sovereign debt crisis is limited.

But capital markets still react fiercely, and investors' risk aversion is rising rapidly, showing that market confidence remains fragile.

We believe that before the European debt crisis is yet to be clear, confidence in the market is unlikely to be fundamentally changed.

This will still be a big test for the global capital market, including A shares.

2, real estate regulation and control continues.

As a major factor affecting the performance of the A share market in the near future, domestic regulation and control of real estate continues.

Last week, the State Administration of Taxation issued a circular calling for the "land value-added tax to be severely liquidated". The Ministry of housing, the people's Bank of China and the Banking Regulatory Commission jointly issued a notice on the weekend. It is clear that the identification of the two suites should not only take family as the unit, but also enforce the strict policy of recognition of housing and recognition of loans.

Shows that the regulation and control of the real estate industry continues to go deep, and there is no sign of reduction in the regulation and control of the real estate industry.

To a large extent, this will continue to affect investors' confidence in the capital market and the real economy.

3, TED spreads continue to rise, and global liquidity is under pressure.

Earlier, we have reminded investors to pay attention to the impact of TED spreads on capital markets.

Last week, the TED spreads continued to rise, reflecting that global liquidity is shrinking under the background of investor risk aversion, which makes capital market pressure on capital still small.

4, the contest between "value" and "confidence".

The relative attractiveness index of A shares rose to more than 3% again.

Rationally, the relative attractiveness index of A shares exceeds 3%, indicating that the A share market already has medium and long-term investment value, but the short-term market confidence is still insufficient. The negative factors such as the real estate regulation and the European debt crisis which affect short-term market performance are further aggravated, and the short-term performance of stock index will continue to be suppressed.

Moreover, we note that the yield of the 10 year treasury bonds has gone down, and the yield of short term bonds such as 6 months and 1 years has been rising. There is a sign of tighter liquidity in the market. This also has certain constraints on the market performance.

5, the short-term pattern is still hard to change.

From the valuation point of view, we believe that the A share has fallen to the value zone, but as a key factor affecting the performance of the global capital market in recent years, the European debt problem has continued to spread and there are still many uncertainties in the peripheral market.

Moreover, the domestic policy pressure on real estate regulation continues, making short-term market confidence still fragile.

Under the contest of "value" and "confidence", the balance tends to be "confidence" in the short term, and the short term market structure is still difficult to change fundamentally.

The clarity of policy and the resumption of market confidence remain the first choice for short-term strategy.