Guo Tianyong: China'S Economy Is Getting Cold.

This morning, the National Bureau of statistics released China's macroeconomic data in May, of which CPI grew by 3.1%, exceeding the 3% moderate inflation line set by the previous government, an increase of 2.8% over April.

To this end, Guo Tianyong, director of China banking research center, Central University of Finance and Economics.

Guo Tianyong thinks that the growth rate of CPI in May is almost the same as that expected before the market. However, from the current situation, the possibility of future economic downturn will occur. Therefore, CPI may stay for more than 3% months, perhaps for a quarter, and there will be no significant increase.

Guo Tianyong pointed out that the specific trend of CPI in the future depends on the future development of China's economy.

If the Chinese economy itself has a downward trend, it does not exclude that the next 3.1% will be the high point in the year. But if the economy is still strong in the future, then the possibility that CPI will continue to rise to 3.5% or even 4% in the future will not be ruled out, which is very fundamental to the fundamentals of China's economy.

For the current inflationary pressures, Mr Guo said that first, it is necessary to manage the supply side and maintain adequate supply of some commodities to prevent the price rise of commodities under the control of inflation expectations.

Secondly, it is suggested that the current interest rate level be carefully assessed to determine whether the current market interest rate is reasonable and appropriate under the current CPI and economic indicators. If the future CPI is above 3%, then the interest rate can be adjusted under the premise that the interest rate is reasonably assessed. When CPI breaks through 3%, it is necessary to pay attention to it. If the negative interest rate is too obvious, it will be an unreasonable occupation of the depositors' wealth.

Because of the possibility that the whole economy is getting cold, raising interest rates in the current situation is a policy withdrawal. It may have negative effects on other economies. Therefore, a serious assessment is needed. Some asymmetrical interest rate increases can also be chosen, such as raising the deposit interest rate appropriately, and lending interest rates slightly increased or even unchanged.