Ye Tan: We Need Beautiful Data &Nbsp; We Need More Reform And Determination.

China and the United States are carrying out economic scramble through a series of economic data and psychological expectations. For the world or China, it needs more than just beautiful data, but the determination of reform and the system construction that can promote the development of the next 30 years.

In the expected economic era, there are too many artificial axes in economic data and phenomena.

Pessimistic data should not be pessimistic. Optimistic data should not be optimistic.

China's macroeconomic data in May revealed that the growth rate of house prices declined, exports increased and consumption increased, except for CPI data.

The number of exports is much, everything is in control, foreign exchange reserves have decreased slightly, and China's exports have increased greatly. The import and export data in the past two months are full of dramatic colors.

The increase in exports and the net investment of the central bank indicate that there is a trend of deflation in China, and the currency has been draining slightly to make up for the loopholes in the price of the products.

The euro zone is still blowing, but that is mainly because the euro area wants the euro to remain weak.

Hungary exposed the financial crisis inexplicably. Despite the reminder of the scale of rescue efforts raised by US Treasury Secretary Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke, the EU seriously expressed the need to strengthen fiscal discipline, and Europe would never save the world with American style helicopters.

Through the depreciation of the euro, increasing exports and reducing debt, the euro zone economy has not been worse. Why not?

The United States has been in a state of no job recovery, and policymakers in the US economy have confidence.

In June 9th, Bernanke attended the House Budget Committee to prove that the US economic recovery has been on the right track.

In the next two years, the US economy is expected to enter a track of sustained growth.

As long as the financial system remains stable, the European debt crisis may only have a moderate effect on the US economic recovery.

Although the US economy continued to grow in 2010 and 2011, it is still not enough to solve the employment market problem, nor to help reduce the huge budget deficit, but the effective expenditure of consumers and enterprises is ensuring the sustained recovery.

Bernanke believes that inflation will not happen, interest rates and commodity prices will continue to decline.

The facts are neither optimistic nor pessimistic. The global economy is in the process of recovering from the bottom. The two time of exploration is certainly not confirmed. It is believed that the global economy and the Chinese economy will enter a broad upward path, and a disregard for reality.

Because any structural adjustment is long and painful.

Many people are interested in the prediction of individual data, and the vitality of a single data can only be interpreted by embedding the whole economy.

For the economies with obvious problems of CPI weight, what can be explained about the rise of CPI to 3.1% when the price pmission system is not smooth? When the CPI is rising, the major steel enterprises such as Baoshan Iron and Steel Group and Angang are reducing the whole industry, the global prices of commodities are beginning to decline, and the price of resources purchased by China in May is still rising.

Because of the complexity of the economic situation, we see the monetary policy moving around. The NDRC has repeatedly refuted reports that the prices of agricultural products have increased.

The reason why we have repeatedly clarified passively is not only the cold and hot economy, but also the fact that our monetary policy has never really considered CPI as a matter of fact, but a conclusion that we take into account the overall economic situation.

According to the analysis of entity and fictitious economic data, according to the understanding of China's economy, it is clear that the central bank can not raise interest rates in the near future, but this does not mean that we can ignore the quality of life of the middle and low income groups.

Housing prices fell slightly, indicating that the price of housing is going to drop completely? Please, the adjustment of the real estate market has already started, and the volume of housing in the first tier cities has dropped by 70%.

As long as there are normal logics, we can draw the conclusion that as long as the policy does not change 180 degrees, the price drop in the real estate market will happen sooner or later. According to the analysis of cash flow, a large number of price reductions will be made in the three quarter.

For China's economy, we need to see the following empirical evidence: the regulation of the real estate market will be different from the past. It will abandon speculation and focus on the long term. The reform of the real estate market will become an important part of China's economic restructuring. It will not because of the short and temporary economic fluctuations, it will not abandon the reform because of the lobbying of large iron and steel enterprises.

For China's economy, the economic reform is necessarily a complete supporting reform. It is impossible for a single soldier to succeed in any field.

For example, if property tax is not accompanied by public finance policy, without the overall legality improvement of tax and fees, the author will turn from support to opposition, because that reform is short-sighted, does not touch the fundamental and unwavering reform of vested interests, and how it will be changed.

We must remain sober and rational, pay attention to the current reform measures, abandon the indignation and draw a fair conclusion, and establish China's market base with a genuine benefit to China's future middle class income class.