Commodity Markets Are Gradually Weakened By The Factors Of Foreign Exchange Reform.

　　 Central bank " Foreign exchange reform "The statement came out, regardless of the foreign exchange market. equity market Or in the commodity market, there was a wave of "market reform" at the beginning of this week.

According to the views of all analysts, most of the views are that exchange rate reform can boost the trend of commodities in the short term, but in the long run, the impact is limited.

Yu Mengguo, deputy general manager of Jinpeng futures, believes that the reopening of foreign exchange reform has further affirmed the trend of China's economic development in a sense. With the expansion of domestic demand, the increase in import of bulk energy and raw materials will constitute a strong support for its price.

Li Zhe, the director of Galaxy futures research and development center, also said that the central bank has restarted exchange reformed voice, and the commodity market has changed to a state of weakness in the past. The reason for this is that China's position as the "world factory" has made China the largest raw material consumer in the world, and the "China factor" plays a decisive role in the bulk commodity markets such as metals, agricultural products and crude oil. RMB appreciation will surely reduce the import cost of China's bulk commodities, enhance the purchasing power of the international market, and promote the international commodity prices in a phased way.

However, Li Zhe also said that the RMB exchange rate reform stressed the enhancement of RMB exchange rate flexibility. Appreciation or depreciation will depend on the domestic and international situation, and time and amplitude are not released in detail. This makes RMB exchange rate reform a discount to the market. From the perspective of market reaction, the bullish sentiment is gradually being cautious after the earlier obvious fluctuations.

Foreign exchange reform is not good for all futures varieties.

Lv Guowen, general manager of Dongxing futures research and development center, said that the RMB exchange rate reform has a certain asset upward revaluation and liquidity stimulating effect in the short term of commodities and index futures. Among them, non-ferrous metals, fuel oil and natural rubber and other closely related varieties are rising or rising under the foreign exchange reform, but the ferrous metals such as thread and wire rod are subject to the revaluation. raw material The decline in import cost has a negative impact, and seasonal agricultural products such as soybeans, sugar, wheat, corn and early indica rice are relatively stable.

Lv Guowen stressed that, from the medium term impact of half a year to a year, if the RMB appreciates slowly, it will create pressure on China's exports and reduce the speed of China's economic growth, which will have a negative impact on the futures index. Cotton and PTA will also suffer some negative effects due to the impeding export of textile and garment industry in the lower reaches. Judging from the long-term impact of 3 to 5 years, the reform of the exchange rate promotes China's economic structural transformation, which is conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of our economy, and has a positive effect on the long-term trend of the index. However, due to the forced transformation of the high energy consuming industries, China's demand for metal and chemical raw materials has declined, which has a negative effect on these related commodities.

Reuters quoted analysts as saying that China's decision to increase the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate is unlikely to weaken China's huge demand for gold. However, as the RMB exchange rate reform will be gradually realized, its impact on the spot price of gold will also be very limited.

As Dr. Huang Xiaofeng, a researcher at the public economics and management research center of Peking University, said in an interview with reporters, a single policy has limited impact on the commodity market, and whether this policy will have a further impact on the commodity market depends on whether domestic supporting industrial policies and monetary policies will be adjusted at the same time.

"At present, the global industrial economy is in a state of atrophy. Deflation risk is greater than inflation risk. It is not clear how much a policy can boost domestic and international demand. Even if short-term commodity prices fluctuate, the price will eventually return to its own channel." Huang Xiaofeng said so.