Guosen Securities: It Is Expected That The Price Of Spandex Will Rise In 2010

In the last week of March, the price of spandex rose again. Spandex 40D rose 1000 yuan to 57000 yuan/ton, and spandex 20D rose 1000 yuan to 82000 yuan/ton. Analysts of Guosen Securities published a research report, which is expected to spandex The year 2010 will be a cycle of upward prices, and there will be no downward trend in prices. Therefore, the ratings of Huafeng Spandex, Youli Holding and Yantai Spandex will be maintained as "Recommended".

Analysts pointed out that although the downstream processing enterprises and dealers had digested the inventory and prepared goods recently, the price of spandex remained stable; However, the gradual arrival of terminal orders also promoted the demand for spandex to remain strong, so some manufacturers entered the market again to purchase, thus pushing the price of spandex to rise again.

According to the analysis of Monita Research Institute, the proportion of direct export of spandex in the total output is not high. From January to November 2009, the value was 12%, while in the same period of 2008 and 2007, the value was 18% and 22% respectively. From downstream demand From the perspective of flow direction, domestic textile and clothing processing is the main consumer end of spandex; Analysts believe that the textile and clothing exports in the second quarter should be a high probability event, so the consumption of spandex will also rise.

It is reported that PTMEG and pure MDI respectively account for 45% and 10% of the production cost of spandex production raw materials. In 2009, the total capacity of PTMEG in China was about 320000 tons. Analysts from Monita said that if the demand for spandex next year is expected to be 2.6-28 million tons, about 2.2-24 million tons of PTMEG will be needed (spandex consumption accounts for about 80% of the total output of PTMEG); And the supply and demand structure of PTMEG shows that it is unlikely to compress the profit space of spandex due to its price rise. In addition, assuming that MDI prices will rise by 20% next year, the production cost of spandex will only increase by 2%, which will have a very limited effect on compressing the profit space of spandex. Analysts believe that the price of spandex in the second quarter has room to rise as the low price inventory has been digested in early April; In addition, the concentration of the spandex industry is high and there is a certain bargaining power, so analysts are still optimistic about the performance of spandex products in the short term.

However, it is worth noting that after the third quarter, the new capacity of the spandex industry calculated by Monita was about 40000 tons, equivalent to about 10000 tons in the first quarter, which accounts for about 12% of the current effective capacity in the current quarter. Analysts believe that, New capacity The release of may have a negative impact on the price of spandex in the fourth quarter and beyond.