China Market: We Can Not Manage And Interfere Artificially.

What is the problem in China? It has a growth process, just like a fat person is not always born fat, and has a fat process. China is pushed forward by the whole government, and it is a systematic process of promoting.

Look at the former Soviet Union, its scale has reached 80% of the scale of the US economy, including physics, aviation and so on.

Now China's society is likely to have economic problems, because all trade configurations are driven by the government. In fact, we can not manage and interfere with the market artificially.

In 2003, Mexico occupied the United States.

We also see that since 2001, the economies of Russia, Ukraine and ASEAN have been very unstable, which are strengthening global capital to allocate resources to China.

India's demolition is not as easy as China's demolition. The cost of demolition in India is very high, and the government has no way to move.

What is the result of this long-term arrangement? China's trade surplus is a great sorrow for us - we are not free to configure it.

We are likely to see something unexpected happen, and the price of trade products around the world is much lower than that of Chinese products one day.

We take petrochemical products as an example.

In recent years, the petrochemical industry in the Middle East has developed rapidly, and the ethylene production capacity has increased by more than 5% per year in 2002~2008.

The main Petrochemical Industries Co in the Middle East, taking advantage of cheap raw materials, and working with large international companies to build world-class petrochemical plants with advanced technology from the world, make them highly competitive in ethylene and downstream petrochemical products, and are ambitious in the face of future development.

The Iran national Petrochemical Industries Co plans to increase its ethylene production capacity by 1 times to 9.4Mt/a in 2012.

The Saudi Basic Industry Company plans to increase its production capacity of polyolefin in 2020 by 1 times on the basis of 13Mt/a in 2010, reaching 26Mt/a.

If the new ethylene installations in other Middle East countries are taken into account, the Middle East ethylene production capacity will reach 31Mt/a by 2013.

Because the raw materials of Middle East petrochemical products are mainly gas (methane, ethane, propane, etc.), their downstream products are mainly concentrated in polyethylene, ethylene glycol, polypropylene, methanol, urea and other products. These products are developing rapidly and production capacity is growing very fast.

The cost of petrochemical products in the Middle East is 30% of China, and polypropylene is only 70% of China's.

What is the situation of Saudi Arabia? The economic growth is 1%, the population is increased by 2%, the population unemployment rate is about 20% now, and 40% of the population are young people.

3 years later, about 16 million tons of petrochemical products dumped all over the world in the Middle East.

Why did Saudi Arabia not develop heavy industry before? Because it first developed agriculture and used a lot of seawater desalination to develop agriculture.

Now the surplus of Saudi Arabia's agricultural products can be exported.

After completing its own agricultural development, it must shift to heavy industry.

The cost of Saudi Arabia's oil now stands at $5 a barrel, which is absolutely beyond doubt in terms of resources and costs.

In recent years, the major oil producing countries in the Middle East are vigorously developing the petrochemical industry.

At present, a large number of petrochemical installations are being built in the Middle East and will be put into operation after 2010. Most of the products are located in Southeast Asia, and these products will inevitably have a certain impact on the petrochemical market, including China.

In addition, Vietnam's clothing exports now exceed US $10 billion.

Chinese clothing

I have a Russian aunt. When she was young, she had 10 thousand Russian roubles, which could be exchanged for 10 thousand dollars at that time.

But after 1989, the 10 thousand Russian rouble could only be $1.

In 1985, who would believe that the Russian rouble would depreciate?

In 1996, the International Monetary Fund evaluated ASEAN as the best economic system, but the ASEAN economy collapsed in 1997.

At that time, the Indonesian rupiah was devalued from 2500 yuan to 10 thousand yuan, and the international monetary organization quickly entered the field. At that time, Hongkong's Peregrine company built a lot of stocks. However, the Indonesian rupiah soon devalued to 20 thousand yuan, and Hongkong's Peregrine went bankrupt.

The trend of currency depreciation triggered by the economic structural problems is not something that manpower can reverse, until the energy is released completely.

When the mountain torrents roared down, the water potential was like the Tianhe river burst, which means Nuwa had to hide first. No matter who or how to intercept it, it was a hero who could only offer life.