Commentary: Commodities Generally Lower &Nbsp; Plastics Hit A New Low In The Year.

Chemical weakness in the afternoon is still low in plastics.

Rubber: today, the main contract of Shanghai gum 1011 has tested the support strength of 21000 yuan / ton, and it has managed to hold 21000 yuan / ton barrier at the end of the market, closing at 21175 yuan / ton.

Due to the relatively high spot price in Southeast Asia in April, the amount of rubber purchases in Southeast Asia at that time dropped sharply, resulting in a sharp decline in rubber imports to about 90 thousand tons in May. However, in late April to early May, Southeast Asian prices fell sharply by about 18%.

Based on the sharp drop in prices at that time in Southeast Asia and the sharp decline in China's rubber imports in May, Chinese buyers should increase their procurement of rubber in Southeast Asia during the second period. Therefore, domestic rubber imports should increase in June, and if China's rubber imports increase in June, the pressure on China's low rubber stocks will be eased.

In the beginning of the year, automobile sales were coming out. From the early news, the US sales figures for June were not optimistic, while the rise of China's tire stocks and the pressure of downstream consumption were increasingly apparent.

But China's spot price is still strong, becoming the only pillar to support the trend of the Shanghai rubber industry. Today's average price of Nongken is 23520 yuan / ton, although the volume is affected by the decline of the futures market, but the turnover of 300 tons still shows that the spot market is still stronger than the futures market.

In addition, ANRPC today will continue to reduce the world's output of rubber products to 5.2% in 2010, and it was expected to be 6.1% in May. In recent months, the expected growth rate of rubber production in 2010 has been decreasing, which will limit the space for rubber to fall.

On the macro side, bad news has frequently spread that China's PMI in June was 52.1, down from 53.9 last month.

On the other hand, the purchasing index of Chicago managers also dropped, lower than expected.

In addition, the German banking sector has become the world's worst debt.

The global economic recovery road twists and turns, market participants are generally empty at the later stage, and Shanghai glue itself is interlaced with each other, although there are spot support, but I am afraid it is difficult to outshine others. In the near future, it will test the integer pass of 21000 yuan / ton.

PVC: today PVC main contract 1009 due to break down the current price, the early market trend was strong once, but it finally arrived at the drop of the peripheral market, and the market bearish psychology caused by the basic weakness.

All the way down, fell to 6980 yuan / ton, volume continued to slump, today only traded 31428 hands, but a small increase in positions, today's holdings increased 1412 to 52630 hands.

Europe's debt crisis remains apprehension, and stock market, futures and crude oil plummeted.

Today, the domestic PVC spot market remains in the doldrums, the business mentality is pessimistic, and the mainstream quotation continues to be explored.

The downstream businesses continue to wait and see if they buy or sell, but the market is showing no market price, and there is no sign of stabilization.

Fuel oil: New York crude oil fell for three consecutive days, which was affected by the rise in crude oil inventories and the clearing position of the end of the quarter fund.

Shanghai oil opened today after the shock dropped, showing weakness.

Analysis of the following market: G20 summit did not introduce new economic stimulus policies, the short-term impact of the US Gulf storm is not big, the oil price has receded in a short period of adjustment, and the Shanghai oil market is rather light.

LLDPE: today, the main contract for plastics is 1009, with volume increasing and downloading, closing at 9215, falling below the lowest point in the year.

After the opening of the stock market, the domestic market dropped to plastic enough to fall.

The fundamentals continued to slump, and the turbulence in the international situation increased greatly.

It is suggested that empty tickets can be held temporarily today, and whether the 9280 can be repeated is the key.

Judging from the current situation, the next target is expected to be 9000 of the domestic stock market trend, beware of weekend risks.

PTA: on Thursday, crude oil dropped to $75 on the outside market. The PTA price opened at 7234 today, the highest 7252 points, the lowest 7136 points in the day. The second half of the session was more than 10 thousand below the 7200 resistance level, the world dropped 112 points, the final price was 7144 points, the settlement price was 7200, the price center of gravity continued to decline, the PTA1009 contract position increased 8490 hands, and the total position was 172544 hand.

Judging from the analysis of the disk, today's PTA price declines have been established. Although supported by the current fundamentals, PTA has shown a strong resilience. But the market expects July demand to turn pale, and the polyester polyester price too high will face a callback.

PTA's rally, which lasted for nearly 20 days, ended and the market trend fell again.

The operation continues to hold on the high side.

Fat tail fell sharply, Zheng sugar repair rose channel

Beans: economic worries set the overall negative market tone of the commodity market. The US dollar has been strong, crude oil and stock markets have fallen sharply and overturned grain and oilseed futures.

Short term weather forecasts are conducive to soybean crop growth, the first delivery date of Wednesday July contract and the flat position before the announcement of the quarterly inventory and area report of the US Department of agriculture.

The spot price of soybean meal continued to be slightly lower than that of yesterday. As a result, yesterday's electronic disk and domestic plate beans fell, and at the end of the month, the US Department of agriculture's planting area and quarterly inventory report will be released. The industry generally does not see much. Therefore, the soybean meal spot purchase is prudent. Many regions do not see a deal. But yesterday, the price of oil factory in the inland part of Shandong was obviously lower. The price was first traded at 2700 yuan / ton, and then the price rose to about 2740 yuan / ton. The overall volume of pactions was obvious, indicating that the demand side was still more recognized for the 2700 yuan / ton line price, but the oil factory was reluctant to sell at a low price.

It is advisable to maintain a concussion in operation and light storehouse.

Sugar: raw sugar rose strongly to repair the rising channel. Zheng sugar rose strongly against the background of the stock market and commodities.

On the one hand, the tight support of spot market is another good expectation for the next quarter.

Sugar market fundamentals are good, but the macro environment is slightly worried.

The operation is on the low side.

Corn:

Grease: market rumors that China will soon resume the import of soybean oil in Argentina. If the supply is adequate, the soybean oil will go up and down in the afternoon, eventually closing to 7360 points. The overall trend of the current oil is empty, and the recent operation is more difficult.

On Thursday afternoon, palm oil futures opened up and closed at 6284.

Because the overall trend is still downward, we suggest that we should deal with this problem.

Shanghai gold futures opened slightly lower on Thursday, and the price shocks were lower during the day. The main contract pactions and positions were slightly increased, but most of the holdings were in the late fall.

International gold prices were stable on Wednesday evening, and the US dollar fell slightly.

Asian early trading prices continued trading around $1240 on Thursday.

On the London golden day line, the short-term upward movement of gold prices is not obvious. The swing indicators on the weekly line need to be repaired and the operation need to be cautious.

Recently, the ETF fund is still adding a small margin, supporting the price.

On Wednesday, the European Central Bank provided the banking system with a three month capital of 131 billion 900 million euros, which is lower than the 210 billion euros expected by the market, and the market's performance is more optimistic, because this indicates that the current financial strain of the European banking system is not very urgent.

According to a data released by the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday, the share of US dollar and euro in global foreign exchange reserves has declined in the first quarter of this year, and diversification of foreign exchange reserves will be a trend in the future.

Because of the lag of the data, the data in the second quarter may more clearly reflect this trend.

Diversification of foreign exchange reserves is conducive to gold prices.

In the light of the current fundamentals, the factors that support gold prices have not changed, but technical graphics show that gold prices may not rise in the short and medium term.

Coloured price rebounded weak, returning to a downward trend

The slash of macroeconomic data still makes the price of nonferrous metals under pressure.

China's PMI index in June was 52.1, down from 53.6 last month, and data show that the growth rate of China's manufacturing industry is slowing down.

In addition, the number of private sector employment increased by 13 thousand in June, less than 1/4 of economists' expected value.

The price of Shanghai copper is down today, the price is back to the down channel, and the Shanghai copper 1010 contract closed at 51040 yuan / ton, down 520 yuan.

The uncertainty of global economic growth is still a factor in the current copper market, while the European sovereign debt problem has been alleviated in the short term, but there are still large risks in the medium and long term.

In addition, the emergence of the Spanish problem has also led to renewed worries in the market. Moodie said Wednesday that it is assessing Spain's rating and may reduce it by two levels, because the country's economic growth may decline in the future and its financial challenges will intensify.

It is expected that copper prices will continue to be lowered to a low level of US $6000.

The fluctuation range of Shanghai aluminum prices is down again, and the decline of the surrounding varieties is obviously a drag on the aluminum price.

Domestic spot market prices continue to decline, but due to the reduction in volume, turnover is acceptable.

Shanghai aluminum spot trading price of 14450-14490 yuan / tons, 60-40 yuan per ton of water discount, Wuxi spot paction price of 14470-14520 yuan / ton.

On the news side, Chinalco again lowered alumina quotations from 200 yuan to 2650 yuan / ton.

After the continuous reduction of alumina prices, the loss situation of electrolytic aluminum plants has eased, but under the background of rising electricity prices, the average cost can hardly be greatly reduced.

It is expected that Shanghai and aluminum prices will be weak and the pattern will be maintained. The short term is expected to explore 14500 yuan / ton, which can be operated in a short space.

Shanghai and zinc prices rebounded against a slight decline of 75 yuan / ton, closing to 14500 yuan / ton.

Spot market, Shanghai 0# zinc traded at 14400-14450 yuan, 1# zinc traded at about 14350 yuan, 150-160 yuan for the main month.

At the beginning of the paction, with the stock market hitting low pull up zinc, enquiries increased, buying gas was slightly boosted. Once it fell, it was cautious to wait and see. Suppliers always actively shipped, and the performance was passive.

The reduction of global economic growth, the pressure of supply and the recent strengthening of the US dollar index still lead to the pressure of zinc price. In the absence of many factors, the price of zinc will continue to shake down.