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    The International Economy Is Still Fragile &Nbsp; Cotton Prices Are Hard To Sustain (1).

    2010/7/8 11:36:00 38

    Cotton Cotton Price

    Recently, cotton reserves and quotas sometimes have no effect, and the yarn price is unbearable.

    Off season market

    A small downward trend is more than just.

    although

    Cotton spot

    The market has been in a steady state, but the market has been watching, and the cotton futures market has been declining.

    The economic recovery is not obvious, and the cotton output in the new year will be improved or the market coming in the off-season.

    Cotton price

    The market is hard to sustain.


    1, the international economic situation or the threat of "two bottom finding"


    According to the chart below, we can see that the US ISM manufacturing index began to rebound from the beginning of 2009, and the market went all the way. However, in the past two months, the index showed a slight downward trend, the index stopped at 60 points, and this month stopped at 56.2 points, down 3.5 points.

    The change in the US non farm payroll population has shown a decreasing trend since January 2008, although after 3 sharp bounce, the market began to look promising, but the economy was still fragile. The number of non farm payrolls decreased by 125 thousand this month.

    In addition, the US unemployment rate has been hovering at 9.5% since June 2009. The number of initial jobless claims increased by 13000 to 472000 in June 26th, and the unemployment rate remained at 9.5%.

    The number of non-agricultural employment decreased, the manufacturing industry continued to decline, and the unemployment rate was 9.5% for a long time. The pessimistic data on all sides had hit investors' confidence. The US consumer confidence index released by the US economic advisory chamber in June this month dropped by nearly 10 points to 52.9 last month.

    As the world's most important economy, the uncertainty of the US economic recovery will exacerbate the market's worries about the "two bottom finding" of the economy, which will bring greater resistance to the upward march of Zheng cotton city.


     

    2, RMB appreciation is not good for textile exports.


    From the start of the RMB exchange rate reform, the RMB has been ups and downs, of which the renminbi has shown a clear upward trend against the US dollar.

    Within half a month, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar rose from 6.8275 in June 18th to 6.7790 in July 6th, rising by 485 basis points, appreciated by 0.71%, and many times the new high since July 21, 2005.

    Among them, the biggest increase in a single day is 295 basis points, the biggest drop in a single day is 122 basis points.

    The spot market also rose rapidly. In July 6th, the closing price of RMB against the US dollar was 6.7749, up 525 basis points compared with the closing price in June 18th, and appreciated by nearly 0.77%.

    As the main exporter of our country, the United States will start the exchange reform, and the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar will be unfavorable to the export of textiles.

    According to the research, the sales profit margin of the textile industry has decreased by 2%-6%, and the garment industry with a high dependence on exports has been damaged more than 1%.

    For the textile industry with a small profit margin, the appreciation of the renminbi will drive its profit space to be compressed again.

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