China's Economy Has Fluctuated, And Economic Growth Has Slowed Down In The Second Half Of This Year.

Economic data will be seen in the first half of this month.

According to the prediction of major organizations, the year-on-year increase in consumer prices in June will be a new high on the basis of 3.1% in May. But economic growth in the two quarter is expected to slow down in the first quarter. China's economic growth rate was 11.9% in the first quarter. Some experts believe that the economic growth rate in each quarter will be reduced by 1 percentage points thereafter.

For such a rise or fall, the current divergence of the situation has increased. Wu Xiaoqiu, director of the finance and Securities Research Institute of Renmin University of China, believes that China's economy may be stagflated. Goldman Sachs Song Yu believes that China's economy may face deflation pressure.

Teng Tai, vice president and chief economist of Minsheng securities, has his own view.

He believes that the current overall economic operation is healthy, although the next two quarters of the economic downturn will be more obvious, but still maintain a high level, the effect of structural adjustment will be gradually reflected in the future. The European and American economies can neither afford two bottom searches nor real recovery, but run at a low level for a long time. China's economy has seen no major inflationary pressures over a long period of time, mainly due to overcapacity in the manufacturing sector.

Teng Tai, vice president and chief economist of Minsheng securities, is vice chairman of the China Securities Industry Association's analyst Committee. He is also an external professor at Renmin University of China, Central University of Finance and Economics and other universities, focusing on macroeconomic and wealth strategy research.

In the first half of this year, the economic growth rate was over 10%.

Twenty-first Century: the finished product inventory index of manufacturing industry in June was 51.3%, rising to the critical point for the first time since December 2008. Is there a big downward pressure on the economy?

Tengtai: in fact, as early as May, the new order index declined year by year, and the stock index increased significantly. At present, this trend is still continuing. These leading indicators may indicate that the next stage of industrial growth will decline. Our forecast is that the GDP growth rate will be between 9.2% and 9.5% in the three quarter, and the fourth quarter economic growth will probably fall below 9%.

Twenty-first Century: will the economy have second bottom searches?

Tengtai: China can not call the second bottom. Affected by external shocks, China's economic growth last year was 8.7%. The negative impact of this external shock this year has been filled by massive domestic investment, resulting in the economic growth rate in 2009 is not low. Gross domestic product The growth rate is around 9.5%.

China's economy is fluctuating, and the economic growth in the second half of this year will be slowed down. But if the economy stays above 9% for the whole year, it will be healthy as a whole. It can not be called the two bottom finding.

Twenty-first Century: the next step is expected to slow down economic growth, slow investment, stable consumption and stable exports. From a structural point of view, does it mean that the economic structure is improving?

Teng Tai: structural adjustment is a long-term task. In order to reduce the impact of external shocks, the end of 2008 issued a 4 trillion investment plan, after two years of expansion, fixed asset investment is gradually down to a normal level, it is estimated that in the next few years will still be able to maintain 20~25% fixed asset investment growth. Data observation shows that the recent growth rate of total retail sales in society is actually eighteen percent points, excluding the impact of the price index, the actual growth rate is only sixteen percent. This growth rate is almost the same as in the past five years. The export is not stable. In the first half of the month, there was an unexpected recovery. Currently new Export orders And the backlog of export orders growth is decreasing, marking the start of the three quarter export growth will fall significantly. Therefore, from the perspective of the dynamic structure of economic growth, there is no obvious improvement. In the future, we need to further stimulate domestic demand and reduce the dependence of economic growth on investment and exports.

From the industry perspective, the effect of structural adjustment needs to be observed. For example, the output of the four high energy consuming industries is still increasing at a high speed, and the proportion of electricity consumption is increasing. Recently, however, stocks in these industries have risen rapidly, and the operating rate is expected to decline in the second half of the year. And the information industry and service industry have maintained a relatively high growth rate, and we should continue to increase support in the future.

From the perspective of regional structure, the economic growth in the central and western regions has obviously accelerated, and the advantages of China's economic strategy are being reflected, and the regional structure of the economy has also improved significantly.

There is no substantial recovery in the world economy.

Twenty-first Century: exports grew faster in the first few months. What about the external economic situation in Europe and the United States?

Teng Tai: at present, the United States and Europe are in a period of slow economic growth. They may remain for a long time. But it's not the second time.

Before, Europe and the United States Economics The decline of growth rate is the superposition of multiple factors. China is different from Europe and the United States. For example, the United States is the 4 cycle of decline, the decline in 2008 is the case now, one is the cycle of inventory, one is the financial cycle, including credit, stock market, real estate, etc., one is the cycle of demand, including three carriages, import and export, investment and consumption; the fourth is the cycle of supply, which is the real power of economic and wealth growth, not the demand, but the supply side. This includes input of elements, the growth momentum of wealth released by the system, the progress of technology, the progress of technology, the input of resources and capital, etc.

Many people ask whether the economy is exploring the bottom for second times. In fact, the US economic downturn is caused by all the previous 4 cycles. For example, the increase in stocks and the decline in orders led to the economic downturn; the financial sector in 2008 was a total collapse; demand was consumption and exports were sliding down; the supply side was the end of the 25 year cycle. For the United States, it started from the Reagan era, and the United Kingdom was the economic boom from the beginning of the Thatcher era and from 1982 to 2007. This time, the recovery of the US economy is only the recovery of the first two short cycles, mainly financial recovery. In terms of supply, the growth of new institutional innovations and new technologies in western countries has not yet appeared.

Twenty-first Century: does this mean that the US and European economies can not grow at a big speed?

Tengtai: if its economic recovery is not a real recovery of sustainable demand, nor is it a revival of the new cycle of supply in the 25 year cycle, it is only a brief recovery of inventory adjustment and financial turn. Then the recovery will bring us economic growth to around 3%, bringing the European economy to around 1%.

At present, the financial system in the United States is relatively stable. Although there is a debt crisis in Europe, there has been no breakage and collapse of corporate funds. It is in a stable process, and the adjustment of inventory and order is also in the normal situation. So the United States and Europe are not the two bottom, but the low economy. The medium cycle, especially the demand cycle, did not appear to have a long-term sustainable recovery. The supply side is still in a downward cycle, and there is no obvious change in the basic state of the system, technology, resources, capital investment and so on.

China has no inflationary pressure

Twenty-first Century: CPI growth is expected to be higher in June than 3.1% in May. Is inflation pressure increasing?

Tengtai: I have advocated from last year that there is no inflation pressure in China for a long time. The key lies in the fact that the overcapacity of China's manufacturing industry is more severe. For example, oil and copper prices rose sharply in 2007, and oil prices rose to more than $140. However, the daily chemical and plastic products in the lower reaches did not increase substantially. The price of iron ore had increased several times, but the prices of the downstream cars did not rise. Why does the upstream raw material price rise and the downstream products do not rise? The reason is that China and the world are in an era of overcapacity. Under the condition of overcapacity in the world, downstream products are in the state of excessive competition and complete competition, and no one dared to raise prices. If an automobile factory rises in price and others do not raise the price, consumers will buy other models. This competitive situation determines that China is unlikely to see big price increases.

In the first half of this year, capacity expansion was more severe, but money growth was slowing down. Broad and narrow money growth rates were turning downward, so that production capacity was growing, and currencies were decreasing. Not only does it not exist now, it does not exist in 3-5 years.

Of course, partial price fluctuations will exist, such as periodic fluctuations in food and energy will also cause changes in CPI, but China's economic structure determines that there will be no comprehensive inflation pressure for a long time.