Home >

Cotton Futures Have A Double Hidden Danger &Nbsp; Have You Noticed?

2010/7/10 14:39:00 32

??? 日本語 Fran?ais English 中文

Road rich bank

It said it expects the second quarter operating profit to exceed analysts' expectations, which is seen by investors as a precursor to economic improvement and stimulates market prices for stocks and most commodities.

NYBOT

cotton

Prices were also boosted, with the most active December cotton futures up 0.24 cents or 0.3% to 74.56 cents a pound.

Although the linkage between the internal and external markets of the cotton market is not as close as that of non-ferrous metals, with the continuous escalation of domestic cotton supply and demand, we have to rely on imports to solve the domestic shortage of cotton.

Under the stimulation of a small rebound from the outside market, the main contract of the internal market opened 90 points higher at 16545 o'clock in January, but it did not go up sharply in the market. The whole trading day remained within the narrow area between 60 points and up and down, indicating that it was very cautious and unwilling to attack easily.

As a domestic cotton futures investor, we have to face up to the two problems existing in the domestic cotton market.

First, the main contract in September is kept high by the spot price, and the futures margin is not willing to leave the stock market. The market is shrouded in the market, which makes it difficult for the new space to enter the futures market and futures prices are hard to fall back.

Second, in November, the contract price was delayed by the cotton planting late this year and the new cotton market was postponed. It was difficult to form a delivery pressure in November, resulting in a much higher contract price in November than in January.

Such a price list is the first time since the listing of cotton.

If investors look at the domestic market from a domestic perspective, it seems that the above two problems are reasonable.

However, as cotton, especially the shortage of cotton supply in China, has already evolved into an international variety, then the analysis of its later trend will have to take into account the influence of international factors on its future price trend, so that we can judge cotton price trend more comprehensively and accurately.

From the international market, the sown area of the United States increased significantly compared with last year. According to the 2010 report of the US Department of Agriculture released in June 30th, the sown area is expected to be 66 million 160 thousand mu, higher than the 63 million 730 thousand mu forecast in March, and higher than the previous 65 million 300 thousand mu, which is 19.26% higher than the 54 million 960 thousand mu in 2009, reaching a new high of nearly four years.

In addition, India, Uzbekistan and other countries also have the expected increase in output, which will bring some pressure to the market.

Global economic issues

It is still more worrying that, at the moment, the first thing to bear in mind is that the European sovereign debt problem has caused tight fiscal problems, which has led to a decline in expected consumption.

Since the main destination of China's cotton textile exports is the European Union, the EU issue is bound to affect the export demand for next year.

There is also a concern about export demand. China's foreign exchange reform starts again, and it is expected that the RMB will appreciate, which will also bring pressure on the export of China's textile industry.

In addition, India and other countries will take this opportunity to seize part of our market.

It can be said that the appreciation of the renminbi is a multiple blow to China's cotton textile industry.

Judging from the international market and domestic exchange rate reform, the market outlook is not conducive to high cotton prices.

But judging from the domestic cotton situation, it seems that the price does not support much more.

According to the director of a large cotton trading company in China, the order price of Xinjiang seed cotton is about 4 yuan / Jin, plus processing fee, pportation cost, labor cost and the price of cotton reaching the mainland at least 18000 yuan / ton.

It can be imagined that the price space is not very large.

As investors face a lot of unfavorable factors in the face of rising, but the fall seems to be more robust, how to better participate in the operation of the futures market? I suggest that in September, its futures prices are indeed difficult to fall, and the trend of future control is in the hands of many investors.

As for November and January, it is expected that the price survey will gradually become normal. It will be difficult to postpone the price in January by raising the price of seed harvest, and pushing up the price of November is a risk. November January is expected to return to normal price in the future.