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Futures Daily: Short Selling Time Will Appear &Nbsp; PTA Brewing Crash Market

2010/7/12 17:48:00 44

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The near future,

pfy

The hot selling has supported PTA traders' confidence and offer, and PTA spot is obviously reluctant to sell below 7000 yuan / ton.

However, the author believes that the support for PTA prices will gradually weaken. With the rebound of Dow and crude oil to the pressure level, PTA will have a mid-term sell-off opportunity, and PTA will usher in a new round of collapse.

At a point in time, a turning point is likely to occur within 10 days. On the decline, prices may fall back to the low price of 6600 yuan / ton before October 2009.

The volume of textile raw materials is enough, and overheating procurement is difficult to sustain.

After May 28th, the downstream of polyester filament is

Textile mill

and

Textile raw materials

Traders, worried about the shortage of polyester supply in 7-9 months due to the shortage of policy production, increased the purchase of polyester filament.

At present, the two most influential news for the market is that the polyester and textile enterprises resulting from high pollution enterprises in Wujiang, Jiangsu will be unable to start work for a long time. From July to September 15th, the government of Zhejiang will reduce the emission reduction of 15 days in the scale of polyester and chemical fiber enterprises in Zhejiang.

After careful reading of these information, we find that the maximum restriction on the polyester production in Zhejiang is only 15 days in two and a half months, while the reduction of polyester production capacity in Wujiang can also be increased by increasing load in other regions.

Therefore, during the 15 months of July -9, polyester supply will have a maximum supply gap of 15 days.

However, since May 28th, polyester stock index has been gradually decreasing under the high opening rate of 81.9%, while the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has been maintained at 70%, which is the same as the previous period. This indicates that a large number of polyester filament stocks have been pferred to the downstream.

According to the calculation of the change of polyester operating rate and inventory index, the downstream has saved enough polyester stocks to cope with the supply gap in July -9 months.

Therefore, the frenzied purchase of polyester is difficult to sustain. The recent fall in polyester prices also reflects the lower purchasing intention of polyester, and no longer high priced stock.

Polyester has reached its peak and demand for PTA will gradually decrease.

From the perspective of PTA market performance, in the process of falling price stabilization, PTA buyers are mainly downstream polyester enterprises, and PTA traders have larger inventory because of their own stock, and they do not increase their own stock by purchasing each other.

Therefore, the main demand for PTA in the short and medium term is polyester enterprises.

At present, the polyester start up rate is 80%, the maximum operating rate of the pre polyester is 81.9%, and the polyester market driven by the raw materials of the downstream textile raw materials is hard to improve the starting rate of polyester again.

The main reasons are: first, because of the environmental factors in Wujiang, the polyester enterprises can not resume production in the medium term.

Second, the downstream stocking market is mainly concentrated in polyester filament, while the demand for staple fiber and PET bottles has not improved. The operating rate of these two parts will not be increased.

Therefore, the demand for polyester for PTA is also difficult to improve significantly.

The high profit makes the manufacturer's equipment fully started, and the PTA warehouse receipt rises again.

Due to the sharp fall in the price of PX, the PTA production profit has increased to more than 1000 yuan / ton recently, and the profit margin is as high as 17%-18%.

It is because of such a high profit margin that PTA manufacturers have launched the PTA device in an all-round way, and the overall operating rate of the industry is as high as 97%.

From the data analysis, PTA Nissan is currently able to produce about 44 thousand tons, while polyester daily consumption of PTA is 42 thousand and 700 -4.5 tons. This indicates that if the import of goods is not considered, the daily output of PTA in the country is equal to the daily consumption.

However, since the import volume has remained high since March, PTA's social inventories have increased sharply after the collapse.

The latest warehouse receipts of the exchange show that PTA registered warehouse receipts and effective forecast warehouse receipts have risen to more than 40 thousand, and in June, they have been reduced to below 38 thousand. This indicates that the situation of PTA oversupply is deteriorating.

Under the influence of high inventory, the price of PTA will face more and more pressure.

Crude oil and PX rise have little effect on PTA.

Crude oil prices will fluctuate sharply in the near future, while crude oil futures prices may return to US $78-79 / barrel with the expected reduction in stocks and the rebound of the Dow. At that time, Asian PX prices will probably rebound to near us $900 / ton.

However, even in the short term, the price of PX rises to 900 US dollars / ton, or even 950 US dollars / ton, and the support for PTA price is also very limited.

This is mainly due to the high production profit of PTA. According to the calculation, assuming that PTA remains unchanged at the current price of 7050 yuan / ton, when the Asian PX price rises to 900 US dollars / ton, PTA's production profit is 800-900 yuan / ton, indicating that PTA producers still have more than 10% profit margins; when the price rises to 950 US dollars / ton, PTA production profit still has 500-700 yuan / ton, and the profit margin is still at a high level.

PTA producers have little chance of substantially reducing production at this profit level, and the supply and demand adjustment and confidence support for the entire market are very limited.

Domestic economic hotspots are affecting the trend of PTA.

From the perspective of domestic economic orientation, which began in June, China's economic growth engine has been pformed from exports to domestic demand - regional economic development, which has led to the overall rise in the price of domestic commodities. However, for a period of time, the regional economic hotspots and the continued promotion of low-carbon life will weaken the demand of PTA.

As the policy weakened the impact of exports on the economy, the government may loose on the appreciation of the renminbi, the appreciation of the dollar.

For low value-added textile and garment industry, the change of exchange rate will affect the profits of terminal enterprises, and ultimately affect the survival of enterprises.

At the same time, in June and July, the state adjusted the minimum wage standards of various regions several times, and labor costs rose. The competitiveness of Chinese textile and garment exports, which is dependent on low production costs and low exchange rates, will become increasingly difficult to maintain.

To sum up, the author believes that the late PTA will inevitably usher in a new round of decline.

As PTA has gone through nearly one and a half months of consolidation, the technical indicators of pre fall have been repaired. The possibility of PTA going out of the new round of market decline is very high in the middle of 7.

Moreover, after falling through the current oscillation platform, PTA futures prices may lower the price low in September 2009.