Analysis On The Price And Future Trend Of Primary Products In The International Market In Half A Year

International market in the first half year Primary production Product price situation and trend analysis in the second half year

Last year, the prices of primary products in the international market increased substantially. In the first half of this year, the trend was divided, the prices of agricultural products were relatively low, the prices of industrial products were high and volatile, and the overall level of prices of primary products was relatively stable. As the global economic recovery is more complicated, the market is worried about the pace of further economic recovery. It is expected that the price of primary products in the international market will remain at a current level at the current price level in the second half of the year.

First half year international market Price of primary products

In the first half of the year, the prices of primary products in the international market showed a high and volatile trend. In the first 4 months, under the influence of optimistic expectations of the economic recovery, the price level of primary products in the international market was higher than before. In April, the price level rose to the highest level since the economic recovery, which is equivalent to the level of the second half of 2007. The price level of most primary products has rebounded to a higher position. Since then, influenced by the spread of the Greek debt crisis, the market has doubts about the pace of the global economic recovery, and the price of the first tier products has dropped somewhat in the first 2 months. Compared with last December, spot prices rose a lot in June and futures prices fell slightly. Specifically, spot prices rose 11.7% in June compared with December last year, up 20.3% over the same period last year, and futures prices fell 2.9% from December last year, up 9.6% over the same period last year. From the first half of the year, spot and futures prices rose by 12.9% and 8.9% respectively in the second half of last year, up 31.3% and 36.5% respectively over the same period last year.

(1) grain and soybean prices oscillate and cotton prices rise. International grain prices have been on a downward trend since last June, with a slight increase in the first half of this year. In June, international grain spot and futures prices decreased by 7.7% and 10.6% respectively compared with December last year, down 9.7% and 21.8% respectively from the same period last year. Judging from the varieties, the spot prices of wheat, corn and rice showed a downward trend. In the main spot market, in June, the US 2# hard Mai Mei Bay FOB price was 156 US dollars / ton, 23% lower than that of December last year; the US 3# corn Mei Wan FOB price was 129 US dollars / ton, down 8.2% compared with 12 last year; Thailand has broken 25% rice Bangkok FOB price is 443 US dollars / ton, down 3.1% from last December.

　　 soybean Prices are falling sharply and cotton prices are rising. In June, soybean spot and futures prices decreased by 9% and 9.7% respectively compared with December last year. Cotton spot and futures prices rose by 15% and 3.8% respectively compared with December last year. In the US market, the spot price of soybeans in June was 334 US dollars / ton, down 6.3% from last December, and the spot price of cotton was 1749 US dollars / ton, 9.4% higher than that of December last year.

(two) crude oil prices are at a high level. In the first 4 months, crude oil prices continued to rise in the international market, rising to a maximum of 87 US dollars / barrel. In May, the price dropped sharply to the lowest level of 68 US dollars / barrel. At the end of June, the price rebounded to 75 US dollars / barrel, slightly below the level at the end of last year. Overall, oil prices continued to be high in the first half of last year, since October. In June, crude oil futures prices in two major exchanges in New York and London were 75.4 US dollars / barrel and 75.7 US dollars / barrel respectively, up 1.4% and 0.8% respectively compared with December last year, up 8.2% and 9.2% respectively over the same period last year. Judging from the average level in the first half of the year, WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices were respectively 78.5 US dollars / barrel and 78.4 US dollars / barrel, up 7.5% and 7.7% respectively compared with the second half of last year, up 51.8% and 48.2% respectively from the same period last year.

(three) the price of non-ferrous metals has dropped. The price of nonferrous metals rose slightly in the first 4 months, and the price in April was high since the economic recovery. The price dropped sharply in the latter 2 months, and the price in June was much lower than that in last December. In June, the spot and futures prices of non-ferrous metals dropped by 8% and 8.5% respectively over the 12 months of last year, up 23.3% and 25.4% respectively from the same period last year. Judging from the specific varieties, the spot price of copper, aluminum, lead and zinc fell 4.7%, 9.2%, 26.6%, 26.4% in December, respectively, and the spot price of tin and nickel rose by 10.7% and 13.4% respectively compared with that of December last year in June.

Two. Forecast of the price trend of primary products in the international market in the second half of the year

Considering the global economic situation in the first half of the year, although the debt problem of Greece and other countries has emerged, the overall recovery pattern of the world economy has not changed. In recent years, the IMF has raised its forecast for economic growth this year. It is estimated that the world economic growth rate will be 4.6% in 2010, the largest increase since 2007, which is higher than the expected level of 4.2% in April. The rapid economic recovery has raised the demand level of the global primary products, which has brought support to the price. However, after a year of continuous rising, the price level has been at a high level. The supply and demand of most primary products are balanced or slightly surplus, and the inventory level is generally higher. The problem of sovereign state debt has led some developed countries to adopt fiscal tightening measures, which will affect the pace of global economic recovery in the second half of the year and bring downward pressure on the prices of primary products. It is expected that the prices of primary products will remain at a current level in the second half of the year.

Grain prices are still facing downward pressure. From the point of view of supply and demand, global grain production has increased for more than 4 consecutive years, and inventories have increased. According to the latest report of the US Department of agriculture, the world grain production in 2010/11 is estimated to be 22.6 million tons, 1.4% higher than the previous year, and the demand is 22.5 million tons, an increase of 2.3% over the previous year. The end of term inventory is 4.8 million tons, an increase of 7 million tons over the previous year, and is at a high level in the past 9 years.

Specific varieties, with the harvest of wheat into the market, the supply of wheat will increase substantially in the second half of the year, and the price of wheat will continue to decline under the influence of new wheat listing and inventory growth. Corn production and demand are expected to increase in the new year, but production is still greater than output, which will restrain prices. Because of the critical period of maize growth, climate may become an uncertain factor affecting prices. In the rice market, rice production in the world's main producing countries has increased to varying degrees this year. Market supply and demand are loose, and there is downward pressure on rice prices.

Oil and oil prices are running weak. From the perspective of supply and demand, the basic situation of high yield and over production in the year ending in late September will affect the weak operation of soybean and soybean oil prices in the whole year. New soybean production in October is larger than expected, and inventories continue to increase, which will affect soybean and soybean oil prices continue to weaken in the latter part of this year.

Crude oil prices remain high and volatile. As demand in developing countries has increased rapidly, the global demand for crude oil this year has been close to the highest level in 2007 after declining for two consecutive years, which will bring support to oil prices. OPEC's June report predicts that world crude oil demand will increase by 950 thousand barrels per day to 85 million 370 thousand barrels per day this year, while the US Energy Data Association (EIA) forecasts an increase of 1 million 500 thousand barrels to 85 million 580 thousand barrels / day, close to the 85 million 620 thousand highest level of consumption in 2007. In terms of supply and inventory, OPEC still maintains the policy of limiting production since the financial crisis. Crude oil inventories in developed countries are still at a high level, which suppresses the space for oil prices to rise. According to the latest weekly report released by the American Energy Information Association (EIA), oil inventories increased significantly over the same period last year, of which crude oil and gasoline increased by 3.6% and 3.2% respectively, close to the highest level in the past five years. In summary, crude oil prices are expected to oscillate between 70-80 US dollars / barrel in the second half of the year. Seasonal oil consumption may increase the oil price to a higher level after the peak season of winter oil consumption. However, there are many uncertain factors affecting oil price, especially the change of US dollar exchange rate or speculation fund, which makes oil price possible to break through 70-80 US dollars / barrel shock interval.

Nonferrous metals prices remain volatile. According to the data released by the London Metal Exchange, by the end of June and the end of last year, the inventory of copper and aluminum dropped slightly, lead and zinc inventories increased, tin and nickel inventories declined sharply, but compared with the same period last year, six major non-ferrous metals inventories increased. It is estimated that the overall level of non-ferrous metal prices will be in a concussion situation in the second half of the year, but the price trend will be differentiated if the specific varieties are affected by the changes in the relationship between individual production and demand.