Customs: Textile And Garment Exports Remained Stable In June

In July 12, 2010, the General Administration of Customs released the latest export data. In 1-6 months, textile and apparel exports totaled 88 billion 878 million US dollars, up 22.04% from the same period last year. Of them, textile exports were US $35 billion 652 million, an increase of 32.31% over the same period last year, and exports of garments and accessories were US $53 billion 226 million, up 16.02% over the same period last year.

In June, exports of textiles and garments were 21 billion 62 million US dollars, up 56.22% over the same period last year. textile Exports of US $6 billion 595 million, an increase of 31.06% over the same period, and clothing exports of US $14 billion 467 million, an increase of 71.21% over the same period last year.

Commentary:

1, June industrial export data continued the rebound trend in the first two months, and maintained steady growth. The trend is basically consistent with our expectations in the mid-term strategy. The concrete judgement is as follows: the recovery of overseas demand is the main driving force for the growth of China's textile and clothing exports in the two quarter. From the perspective of the major textile and apparel consumer markets in the US and Europe, the US economy is in a strong recovery in the two quarter, and both employment and consumer credit have returned to normal levels. The upgrading of consumer demand has shifted from government stimulus to endogenous growth, which provides strong support for China's textile clothing export in the two quarter.

Although the euro area has experienced the debt crisis, it is currently facing China's debt crisis. Textile and clothing The impact of exports is not large, and the negative effects are lagging behind.

Judging from the monthly data, according to our estimates, the growth rate of textile exports in June has declined, an increase of about 10 percentage points lower than that in May, while the year-on-year growth rate of garment exports has exceeded textiles for the first time since the three quarter of 2009, reaching 71.21%. We believe that this is mainly due to the increase in the price of raw materials such as upstream textiles, and the increase in the price of clothing products has led to a significant increase in clothing exports.

2, the latter uncertain factors increase, industry export growth in the three quarter or fall. The reasons are as follows: 1) the impact of euro zone debt crisis is lagging behind, and the impact on China's textile and clothing export trade will appear in the three and fourth quarter. 2) the implementation of the new exchange rate reform forced the renminbi to appreciate against the US dollar in the short term. Because the new reform system dynamically adjusted the RMB exchange rate with reference to a basket of currencies, which means that the recent rebound in the euro against the US dollar made the RMB appreciate against the US dollar correspondingly. Considering that the share of the textile and garment export trade in China is about 80% of the total, it is affected by the recent superposition of RMB appreciation and the lag of the debt crisis, and the export growth rate of the industry will be slowed down in the three quarter and fourth quarter.

3) high in developed countries unemployment rate Although the pressure has been alleviated, it is still operating at a high level, and it still has certain restrictions on the full recovery of consumption. 4) the impact of the economic crisis, the rising prices of raw materials and labor costs have led to the sensitivity of overseas customers to the fluctuation of export prices. Once the price of products continues to rise, the industry will face the risk of order shifting; 5) the amplification effect of the late financial crisis will weaken, and the high growth rate will slow down.

3, take the above reasons into consideration and maintain the "neutral" rating of the industry. In the later stage, we recommend that large export enterprises with strong bargaining power and stable order conditions, such as Lu Tai A, Huafu color spinning and Rebecca, will maintain the investment rating of the above companies.