Experts Expect China'S Economic Growth To Exceed 11% In The First Half Of This Year.

Economics

Due to the reduction of the base period and the reduction of the domestic demand, experts predict that the GDP growth will slow down in the two quarter, which will increase by about 10%-10.5% compared with the GDP growth rate of 11.9% in the first quarter. In the first half of this year, China is likely to achieve more than 11% economic growth.

Ha Jin Ming, chief economist of CICC, expects that the economic growth in the two quarter will be around 10.4%, and the macro-economy has shown a downward trend. The fourth quarter GDP will probably fall to around 8%.

Livelihood

From the published June data, the complexity of the current macro-economy is further apparent.

In June, China's exports increased by 43.9% over the same period last year, and the monthly export value and import and export value all reached a record high. In the first half of this year, real estate investment increased by 38.1%, and real estate regulation did not cause significant cooling of investment.

On the other hand, many leading indicators have dropped significantly. In June, the PMI of manufacturing industry was 52.1%, falling for two consecutive months, and the growth rate of electricity consumption that was positively related to the industrial economy dropped to 14.14%. That may mean that the growth of the economy has slowed down.

Zhang Xiaojing, director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the Institute of economics of the Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the GDP growth of at least two digits in the two quarter is more than 10%, and the annual economic growth will also be located near the potential growth rate.

Experts predict that, from the year-on-year growth rate, the indicators of industrial added value and fixed asset investment in June may slow down appropriately, while consumption and prices may be relatively stable.

Inflation or rising in June

In terms of price, according to the price monitoring data released by the National Bureau of statistics and the Ministry of Commerce, the main food prices in June showed a trend of first fall and then rise, but overall, the ring down ratio is still obvious.

Experts predict that the impact of the tail factor will reach the maximum in the year. The CPI increase in June may continue to approach or exceed 3%, and the price increase in the first half is about 2.6%.

Analysts pointed out that some recent economic indicators fall in line with the long-term economic laws and regulatory expectations. The second half of this year will continue to focus on macroeconomic regulation and control growth, structural adjustment and management of inflation expectations three, at the beginning of the year about 3% inflation target is expected to be achieved.

Of course, we should prevent the superposition effect of a number of policies and avoid an unexpected drop in the economy.

Ha Jiming believes that the inflation situation in June may go up and down.

Affected by the tail factor, CPI rose by about 3.2% on the same month, higher than 3.1% in May, but the ring ratio has begun to fall.

PPI rose 6.2% over the previous year, down 0.9 percentage points from last month.

"In the second half of the year, it is expected that the central bank will not adopt such regulatory measures as raising interest rates and adjusting reserve requirements, and open market operations may also become more relaxed."

He said.

Xia Bin, director of the Finance Research Institute of the National Research Center, believes that, compared with the 11.9% growth in the first quarter, the second half of the year should be prepared to reduce the economic growth by 2-3 percentage points.

The key policy variables in this year's regulation are the regulation of real estate, the liquidation of local financing platforms, and some policies issued by the State Council to limit overcapacity.

Although some of the recent economic indicators began to decline, the new credit target of 7 trillion and 500 billion should be maintained throughout the year.