Consumption Golden Age: Money To Buy = Wait For Depreciation?

In the first half of this year, consumer prices (CPI) rose by 2.6% over the same period last year, and CPI rose 2.9% in June, up 0.2 percentage points from May.

This morning, the National Bureau of statistics issued the national economic performance in the first half of this year. Sheng Laiyun, spokesman of the National Bureau of statistics, introduced the above situation.

The three session of the eleven National People's Congress adopted this year's residents.

Experts also said that under current circumstances, the purchase of money will only affect purchasing power.

When the time comes, the golden age of consumption has arrived.

Eight categories in the first half of the year

Food rose 5.5%

Tobacco and alcohol products increased by 1.7%

Health care and personal products rose 2.7%

Entertainment and cultural goods and services rose 0.3%

Living up 3.9%

Clothing decreased by 1.1%

Household appliances and maintenance decreased by 0.6%

Traffic and communications fell by 0.1%

Digital interpretation

Control of liquid food prices

CPI rose by 2.9% in June, down 0.2 percentage points from last month, a larger decline than in the previous month, and a 0.6 percentage point decrease in June.

Sheng Lai Yun said that this change is beyond many people's expectations.

The main reasons can be seen from two aspects.

On the one hand, in the first half of this year, the state pays great attention to managing inflation expectations and liquidity problems.

On the other hand, from a structural perspective, it is mainly due to the large number of vegetables and fruits coming into the market in June, resulting in a sharp decrease in vegetable prices and fruit prices, resulting in a decline in food prices.

From the statistical data, the price of vegetables decreased by 14.6% in June compared with May, and the price of fruit decreased by 5.1% compared with May. These two items had a 0.5 percentage point impact on the CPI index.

At the same time, Liu Yuanchun, vice president of the school of economics, Renmin University of China, pointed out a cause -- the tail factor.

He pointed out that in June last year, CPI was relatively low. Last year, the price trend was low and high. In December last year, the CPI growth rate was 1.9%.

The effect of the tail factor on the CPI is 1.8 percentage points.

Expert Watch

The commanding heights may appear in August.

Affected by the low level of CPI in the same period last year, this year

Looking at the historical data of CPI, we can see that in May, June, July and August, China's CPI rose by -1.4%, -1.7%, -1.8% and -1.2% respectively, which is basically in the bottom position of CPI in the whole year, and the price level is relatively low.

Liu Yuanchun believes that the corresponding CPI increased in the past few months compared with the same period last year.

Coupled with the seasonal and climatological rise of food prices, it will be more obvious in the CPI year-on-year increase.

Liu Yuanchun analyzed the situation this year and thought that the high point might appear in August.

The relevant value is bound to "slide".

With the release of CPI data in June and the first half of the year, economists generally believe that the inflation pressure that has been plaguing macroeconomic development for some time has been significantly alleviated.

Most agencies also believe that inflation has been too high.

Yu Xianyang, a professor at Renmin University of China and an expert in the field of social economics, pointed out that under the new situation of CPI growth of less than 3%, the driving force behind the soaring CPI prices has not existed.

We must reassess the trend of CPI in the light of the new situation.

He pointed out that if the relevant measures are appropriate, coupled with moderate slowdown in economic growth, the value of CPI in the second half of the year will surely take the slide.

Life story

Interest turns to "no consumer comfort".

A year ago, Parson shares, which he worked in a public relations firm near Jianguomen, was first set up to try to save money. He kept a $10 thousand regular year in the bank.

According to the current central bank's regular deposit rate of 2.25% a year, Parson now gets 10225 yuan even with interest.

But the extra more than 200 yuan made him somewhat uneasy.

Parson's unease is that his account is only more than 200 more, and the "big piece" he wants to buy has risen by more than 1000 yuan.

Parson's "big piece of goods" refers to the price of a trip to a place and the cost of a simple car modification.

The summer vacation fee rose from 7500 yuan to 8200 yuan, and the chassis should be reduced to 800 yuan.

These two things were considered by Parson half a year ago.

Parson felt that the money in his hand was not taken away from each other, but was taken away by a small stack.

The chief culprit lies in its own hesitation.

He concluded that as a common people, we must keep up with the consumption policy of stimulating domestic demand.

If you look at something that you can't buy, you should sell it when you shoot.

Want to let interest "win" CPI, this is a "lose at the starting line of the game."

Money to buy = wait for depreciation?

Parson's consideration is reasonable. Although CPI is soaring, we are in the golden age of consumption.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from August 2008, CPI rose to less than one year's benchmark deposit rate.

CPI rose 2.7% in February, which is the first time in 18 months that CPI has risen above the one-year benchmark deposit rate.

After that, the CPI growth rates in March, April, May and June were 2.4%, 2.8%, 3.1% and 2.9%, respectively, all above the one-year benchmark deposit rate.

Yu Xianyang, a professor at Renmin University of China and an expert in the field of social economics, said that for ordinary people represented by Parson, continued savings means a drop in purchasing power.

Unless there is no rigid consumption demand, who else will wait for the money to depreciate because of purchasing money?

Parson seems to have heard the voice of an expert.

He took out his savings, changed his laptop, and bought an entry level digital SLR camera.

"So much money, there is no time to choose to say, spent it."

He said.

Be very careful in reckoning

The interest rate is 225 and the 35 is outstanding.

Zhou Qingjie, executive director of the industrial economics research center, School of economics, Beijing Technology and Business University, has calculated an account.

If the CPI data are calculated in the first half of the year, the account of the deposit will be clear.

In the first half of the year, CPI rose 2.6%, while the one-year fixed deposit rate was 2.25%, and the deposit interest rate shrank by 35 basis points.

That is to say, if depositors deposit 10 thousand yuan of fixed deposit at the time of last year to the bank, they can get 10225 yuan by retrieving the principal and interest.

But in terms of the CPI factor, the actual purchasing power is equivalent to a loss of 35 yuan.

He pointed out that many factors that are closely related to our daily life and consumption are not included in CPI, such as housing prices. At present, what we are seeing is a sign of price loosening and falling.

As a whole, it is not a wise move to choose the currency if there is a rigid consumer demand.

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Core concerns

Annual control is 3% feasible.

Sheng Lai Yun, a spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, said that fluctuations in the price of agricultural products will have a certain impact on CPI, and it is also one of the uncertainties.

But from another point of view, we should also see that there are downside factors for price changes in the second half of this year.

He pointed out that, first, the tail factor of price rise last year gradually reduced from July.

Two, the supply and demand relationship of industrial products is still oversupply at present, and the price uplink of industrial products will be suppressed.

On the whole, Sheng said that the target of price control is around 3% in the whole year.

Zhou Qingjie, executive director of the industrial economics research center, School of economics, Beijing Technology and Business University, said that with the high opening of CPI and the soft landing after the successful adjustment of China's economic structure, the goal of achieving CPI control at 3% this year is not suspense.

Renmin University of China professor Yu Xianyang said, as long as the protection of winter related heating products and vegetables and other products distribution, China's CPI will slow down, the second half of the year will not suddenly rise, so annual control in 3% is entirely possible.

Consumption suggestions

Why do computers reduce prices?

Liu Yuanchun, vice president of the school of economics, Renmin University of China, said in an interview with the late reporter that from the current situation, it is quite cost-effective to spend money on things.

Liu Yuanchun analysis, CPI in the next few months may continue to rise, even if the second half of the year is stable or down, it is difficult to return below 2.25%.

At present, there is little possibility of raising deposit interest rate at present macroeconomic level.

Therefore, Liu Yuanchun believes that it is impossible for residents to save money in order to "win" CPI.

Zhou Qingjie, executive director of the industrial economics research center, School of economics, Beijing Technology and Business University, believes that for the common people, consumption is a good way to avoid depreciation of the currency in their hands.

Buying daily necessities, you can collect more discount sales information, pay more attention to the discount time and activities of the surrounding supermarkets and shopping malls.

Although the price of seasonal tourism is not good enough, the prices of household appliances such as computers and cameras have been steadily decreasing, and they can also be purchased according to their own needs.

According to the price monitoring center of the national development and Reform Commission, the price of domestic passenger cars in 36 large and medium-sized cities continued to decline in June, down by 1.66%.

So buying cars is now.