July 17Th Consensus: Cotton Traders See The City (7.16) Express

Lighten down slightly rebounded

Overnight New York cotton main contract price in December after a new low rebound after a slight rise, whether the short term can end the fall or rebound is worth looking forward to. Today's domestic cotton trading market electronic matching price rebounded and rose, MA far month contract below 16000 yuan short term support, and delivery in recent months in July, hit a new high of 19180 yuan. Total turnover of 25640 tons, less than yesterday, the total volume of orders 176660 tons, down 180 tons, the total decline in orders mainly concentrated in the past month in July, a decrease of 3440 tons a month, other contracts to substantially increase positions. Disk transactions, with the help of the external market rebound and low support, long buying power dominant. Short term rebound is expected to continue, but domestic spot continues to weaken obviously, the increase in China's cotton price index will inevitably reflect the matching market and directly weaken the strength and height of matching price rebound. We will continue to pay attention to the changes and trends of domestic spot price. The words of a family are for reference only.

Disk deadlock increased

On the 16 day, the market opened up sharply, and the contract rebounded sharply in recent months. In the first half of this year, China's high growth and low inflation continued to lead to further lower interest rate hikes, and the sound of 600 thousand tons of cotton throwing and storage policy weakened. Xinjiang cotton Regional weather conditions are very unsatisfactory and other support, the bull's panic has weakened, and the willingness to stop and stabilize has risen. But speculative forces still rely mainly on wait-and-see, and short term plans are not strong; 16 days, 25640 tons of contracts were contracted, narrowing narrower than yesterday, ordering only 180 tons reduction, and the two sides were in a stalemate, of which the main contract MA1009 traded 5100 tons, up 42 points. Personally, I think the strength of the 16 day long strike and counterattack is obviously insufficient. It is only a reasonable consolidation of the "Jiu Lian Yin" in the early stage. The market atmosphere is still dominant, the market price of cotton yarn is reduced, the appreciation of RMB is appreciated, the import volume of imported cotton continues to climb, and the domestic and export situation of textile clothing in the second half of 2010 is long and medium term. Cotton price The formation of high pressure, the main contract next week to break the 17300 problem is not big. But concern: first, the impact of continuous rain on cotton yield and quality in the Yangtze River Basin in recent years; in two and June, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.9% over the same period last year, narrowing 0.2 percentage points from last month, but CPI exceeded 3% in many provinces. 　 Objective existence; three, the national monetary control policy is likely to "turn" to prevent a "hard landing" of China's economic growth in the three quarter and fourth quarter. The words of a family are for reference only.