Cotton Spot Price Fell Slightly; Grade 3 Cotton In September Is Expected To Return To 19000

Recently, with Zheng Mian futures Compared with the sharp fluctuation of the electronic matchmaking price, the domestic cotton spot market only dropped 200-300 yuan/ton compared with the late June, and was not deeply impacted by the cotton yarn price drop of 500-1000 yuan/ton. The confidence of cotton hoarding enterprises was not loosened, and some cotton The enterprise believes that the price of domestic cotton will still rise in August and September, and there is a power to break 19000 yuan/ton for Grade 3 cotton. The quotation of SM consignment cotton in the bonded area is expected to reach 18000-18200 yuan/ton, for the following reasons:

1、 Although it is used domestically in June and July Cotton enterprise A large number of American cotton, Central Asian cotton and West African cotton were signed for shipment from October to November. However, according to the purchase and processing progress of American ginning enterprises, it is questionable whether they can ship in October in time. From the perspective of the past years, November, December and January are the centralized shipment and arrival dates of foreign cotton. Considering the safety of raw materials, cotton mills must supplement cotton resources in August and September.

2、 According to the statistics of the Processing Branch of the China Cotton Association, as of the beginning of July, about 240000 tons of cotton had been stored in more than 90 major cotton warehouses in the mainland, accounting for 40% of the total commercial inventory in the mainland, about 600000 tons, and about 410000 tons of cotton to be shipped out of Xinjiang (160000 tons of which are stored by the state). Therefore, the commercial inventory of domestic cotton was about 850000 tons at the beginning of July, Even if the 600000 tons that may be dumped and stored are added, the gap is still quite obvious by the end of September (the monthly textile cotton consumption is about 900000 tons).

3、 Although the ex factory price of cotton yarn of some cotton mills has been reduced by 500-1000 yuan/ton recently, the spinning profit is still 5000-8000 yuan/ton, which is at a high level in the past decade. The elasticity of compressible space is very large, and the support for cotton prices is strong.

4、 It seems that the reserve dumping policy has been "an arrow", but the state has repeatedly stressed that this is to ensure the demand for textile cotton. The policy interpretation of all parties also believes that the reserve dumping has no intention of depressing the cotton price. If the reserve dumping adopts competitive pricing, it may also increase the spot price of cotton, and from the perspective of protecting the purchase price of seed cotton in the new year, The country will not allow cotton prices to adjust too much.

5、 This year, the growth momentum of summer grain output for six consecutive years came to an abrupt end, and the impact of weather on autumn grain production in Hubei, Hunan, Shandong and other major grain producing areas began to appear. Therefore, the price of bulk agricultural products has sufficient action power. At the same time, cotton regions in Hubei, Anhui, Hunan and southern Shandong have been affected by heavy rainfall in the first ten days of July. Recently, the rainfall belt has moved northward, and cotton disasters in the Yellow River basin may be aggravated. Therefore, cotton prices in 2010/11 are still expected to run at a high level.