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    Machinery Industry Upgrading &Nbsp; Looking For Promising Mechanical Equipment.

    2010/7/26 10:52:00 35

    Machinery Industry

    The pressure and power of China's industrial upgrading


    Industrial upgrading mainly refers to the improvement of industrial structure and the improvement of industrial quality and efficiency.

    Humphrey and Schmitz (2000) from the perspective of global value chain put forward a business centered, low-level to advanced four upgrading methods: process upgrading, product upgrading, function upgrading and value chain upgrading, the first three of which belong to upgrading within the industry, and finally upgrading between industries.

    According to the conclusion of our macro research, the external pressure of China's industrial upgrading is mainly reflected in the rising price of raw materials, the pressure of RMB appreciation, and the rise of labor costs. At the same time, industrial upgrading also has internal driving force, which is reflected in the coexistence of consumption promotion and upgrading.


    Industrial upgrading of machinery industry


    from

    Industrial upgrading

    From the angle of the upgrading of the machinery industry, we believe that there are two aspects: first, from the industrial level, the leading industry will change in the post industrialization stage, and the machinery and equipment to deal with the new leading industries will be the focus of future demand; secondly, in the machinery industry, the products will continue to upgrade and the product structure will be optimized continuously, so that the new products will lead to more promising industries, or the upgrading of manufacturing and service will be faster and better, and these industries and companies will have a faster development speed.


    Upgrading of industry level: looking for promising machinery and equipment


    Referring to foreign experience and according to the conclusions of our macro research, we believe that in the post industrialization stage, the leading industries in China will probably be concentrated in these industries: automobiles, pharmaceuticals, electronics, power equipment, special equipment, real estate, railways, aviation, food and beverage, petrochemicals and so on. At the same time, our relatively weak industries include textiles, garments, steel, nonferrous metals and so on.

    Correspondingly, our promising mechanical equipment includes: automation equipment, machine tools, large casting and forging parts, construction machinery, railway equipment, aviation equipment, food packaging machinery and some petrochemical equipment, and so on.


    Intra industry upgrading: product upgrading and manufacturing to service


    The opportunity to explore industrial upgrading from the machinery industry needs to be refined to different mechanical sub industries; because the different sub industries correspond to the different stages of the life cycle of the downstream industries, the way and future prospects of the machinery sub industry upgrading will be different.

    Through the investigation of the industrial upgrading of the listed companies in specific sub sectors, we found that the upgrading of the listed companies in construction machinery, petrochemical equipment, machine tools and heavy metal equipment, railway equipment and aviation manufacturing industry was active. Some petrochemical equipment and machine tool listed companies upgraded the value chain from manufacturing to service earlier. The upgrading of shipbuilding industry was not obvious.


      

    Investment

    Strategy:


    Construction machinery, we suggest that we should pay attention to the 31 traditional companies, and pay close attention to Chang Linzhu and Xiamen.


    We are optimistic about the overall upgrading of Jerry shares (88.80,0.00,0.00%) and the business mode of Shaanxi drum from single machine to complete sets and from equipment to gas.


    Heavy ore

    equipment

    It is optimistic about the prospect of a complete set of nuclear power plants.


    Machine tools, optimistic about Qinchuan in the field of car development gear grinding machine, robot (39.880,0.00,0.00%) traditional products to expand new fields and new products constantly applied.


    Railway equipment, such as 7.97,0.00,0.00%, 5.40,0.00,0.00%, 5.35,0.00,0.00% and 31.01,0.00,0.00%, are listed companies related to high-speed rail.


    Aviation manufacturing, optimistic about Zhong hang heavy machinery and Hafei (23.59,0.00,0.00%) and other strong restructuring expectations.


    Mechanical infrastructure, optimistic about the downstream demand of companies such as 22.48,0.00,0.00%, Jinyi industry, Jiangsu 28.36,0.00,0.00%.

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