In The Second Half Of The Year, Macroeconomic Regulation And Control Will Actively Control &Nbsp; Will "Moderate Relaxation" Come?

It seems to be a coincidence that the two major economic sectors, the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of industry and commerce, yesterday also expressed the judgment of this year's growth rate before and after the economic growth. Zhu Hongren, spokesman of the Ministry of industry and commerce, said, "the industry growth rate is expected to receded to a certain extent in the second half of the year". Ministry of Commerce News spokesman Yao Jian said, "this year's foreign trade situation is still complex and severe. It is expected that the whole year's foreign trade will show a trend of" before and after high. "

From the macroeconomic statistics, the first half of this year's economic growth has slowed down signs, the "two bottom" argument recently also rise again, at this time, the two ministries and commissions to their respective areas to make a downward trend in growth judgment, so that the market once again smelled the "economic downturn" flavor. Relevant experts suggest that under the background of economic growth downtrend, macro policy tightening is no longer necessary, and the future macro-control should be "moderately relaxed".

Internal active regulation and external environment is complex. Industry growth rate of foreign trade is both high and low.

Although most experts believe that the "two bottom" theory is exaggerated, the growth rate of the industrial economy has dropped significantly, making the judgment of the various sectors of the economy different. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the growth rate of the industrial economy in the first quarter of this year was 19.6%, and the industrial growth rate in the two quarter was 15.9%. In June, the industrial economic growth rate dropped to 13.7% in the same month, and the growth rate dropped 2.8 percentage points over May.

" Industry The growth rate is both affected by last year's base factors and the result of active regulation. Zhu Hongren said that the macroeconomic regulation and control policy played a role in restraining the excessive growth of some high energy consuming industries, increased energy saving and emission reduction and eliminated backward production capacity, implemented differential electricity prices, and abolished export tax rebates for some high energy consuming products, thus inhibiting the release of energy consumption in high energy consuming industries.

Although the industrial growth rate has dropped, Zhu Hongren is more optimistic. "There is no hidden danger of" two bottom finding "in the whole economy. The current growth rate is not only moderate, but also conducive to the adjustment of industrial structure and the transformation of development mode, and is conducive to maintaining a steady and rapid development of the industrial economy.

Industrial growth is down to "take the initiative", but the grim situation of foreign trade obviously makes the relevant departments quite "headache". "The growth momentum of external demand is slowing down, the cost pressures of enterprises are increasing, and the situation of trade frictions is grim, which makes the development of foreign trade in the latter part of our country not optimistic." Yao Jian said.

Yao Jian analyzed that the sovereign debt crisis made the fiscal policy of many European countries turning to a contraction, which would greatly restrict consumption and investment. The emerging economies such as Brazil and India began to tighten monetary policy, and the space for further expansion of China's export market was limited. In the first half, the cost of raw materials increased by about 20%-30% compared with the same period last year, and the cost of labor rose to varying degrees, and the export profit margins of enterprises narrowed. In the first half of this year, 38 cases of trade remedy investigations were carried out in China, and the impact of cumulative effects on exports was not underestimated.

The "two bottom" is too fast to be vigilant.

In fact, before the two sector expected the economic growth rate to be "high before and after low", some experts said that if the macroeconomic regulation and control maintained the status quo, there would be a risk of export decline and low operating rate in the future economic development.

"The phenomenon of" high before and after low "in some fields is not terrible, but if there are many phenomena of" low back "and" low "in many fields in the second half of the year, we should pay enough attention to it. Liu Yuanchun, vice president of the school of economics, Renmin University of China, pointed out that the new policy of real estate, energy saving and emission reduction, export tax rebate and other policy effects superimposed, resulting in economic growth before and after the "low."

Societe Generale Bank chief economist Lu commissar believes that macroeconomic regulation and control efforts to suppress investment, foreign trade export situation is not optimistic, there are internal factors of price rise, pulling the economy of the "three carriages" have slowed down to varying degrees, and become the main factor driving the downward trend of the economy. "Although there is no hidden danger of" two bottom finding "in the current economy, there is a risk of rapid decline, which may affect the overall economy, and the future macro-control needs to be vigilant.

For the worries of the two departments, Liu Xiahui, director of the economic growth theory research institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said: "under the situation of excess capacity, we should push ahead with energy saving and emission reduction, reduce operating rate and uncertainty in foreign trade, so that the growth rate of exports will decline. The impact of these factors will gradually become apparent along with the economic downturn".

The superposition effect of unfavorable factors may show experts: macro-control should be moderately relaxed.

Under the background that economic growth is "high before and after low" has become more consistent judgement of the two major economic core sectors, the macro-control policy has become the focus of attention from all walks of life.

In this regard, Zhu Hongren said, "stability." Macroscopic Policies and consolidating economic recovery are still the main keynote of economic work in the second half of the year. The main orientation of economic policy in the second half of this year is to maintain continuity and stability of economic policies, while increasing the pertinence and flexibility of macroeconomic regulation and control, and preventing all kinds of unfavorable factors from superimposed effects. Yao Jian said that it will continue to maintain the stability and continuity of policies for stabilizing external demand, and enhance pertinence and flexibility.

For policy trends, journalists interviewed by experts generally believe that macro-control is no longer necessary to tighten, the future regulation should be moderately relaxed.

"At present, macroeconomic regulation and control policy should be" fine tuned to pine ". It is expected that the macroeconomic regulation and control in the three quarter of this year will remain stable and there will be no great changes, and the four quarter policy will change to" pine fine tune ". Lu commissar said.

Liu Yuanchun's advice is more specific for regulating "moderate relaxation". "To implement a proactive fiscal policy, China's fiscal revenue in the first half of this year is 4 trillion and 330 billion yuan, which costs 3 trillion and 380 billion yuan, and the excess revenue shows that fiscal policy is tight. In the second half of this year, we should pay more attention to expenditure and strengthen investment in public services, health care and education. We must carefully consider the implementation of the stock item withdrawal; increase interest rates must be cautious; trade policies should selectively exit; we must tighten up structural adjustment of backward production capacity, and the crisis of overcapacity will also be highlighted in the future. We should pay attention to the decline of demand and make some contribution to supply."