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Zheng Cotton Strong Shocks In September, Capital Shift Positions Far Away

2010/7/29 17:15:00 42

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The majority of the main force quickly withdrew from the September contract and moved to the far month contract. The contract will be reduced in September, and the 1101 contract will more reflect the fundamentals of the new year.

The near future

Zheng cotton

Continue to maintain a strong pattern of shocks, turnover has not changed much over the previous period, the total position changes little.

However, the recent two trading days of the September contract, which had been increasing, increased sharply, while the CF1101 contract increased significantly.

Yesterday's September contract sharply reduced 14364 positions, while the 1101 contract increased 14490 positions, indicating that the funds shifted from September to the contract.

Long main shift quickly

In the past, the main position of the 20 main positions was accelerated, but the activity of the main position shifted faster, but the seat size of the traditional value preservation fund decreased, and the main seat clearance position increased with the price increase, reaching the maximum value in the same period of history. From the cost of capital, the bulls were in a profitable position, and the cost and profit and loss balance point were rising. This shows that the strength of the bulls is stronger. From the analysis of the average price, with the price rising, the profit taking speed of the early stage is faster, which may become a resistance to further price rise. From the profit and loss ratio, the main CF1101 contracts are relatively strong in strength, and the driving force of the price rises from the withdrawal of Zheng cotton's contract after September, and the price rise power comes from CF1101.

Buying hedge

High price

In recent months,

Zheng cotton

There is a distinct feature of the change in holdings, that is, the positive entry of buying hedge funds.

When the main fund increased its long position, prices rose all the way, and the proportion of main positions decreased significantly.

It can be said that buying hedge funds continues to enter the market and forces the price to go strong.

Of course, there is a process of price rise, and the form of price rise is also important.

From Zheng cotton day K line graphics, the price rise in the form of continuous small rise in the form of more, in operation, bulls take the initiative, the timing and magnitude of price adjustment often depends on bulls.

The control risk can be achieved by adjusting the proportion of warehouse positions in the process of pferring the funds from the September contract to the far month contract.

In July 27th, in order to prevent the market risk of the cotton contract in September, Zheng merchants made the following adjustment to the margin standard of the contract paction: from July 29th to August 10th, September contract margin standard was raised to 15%; from August 10th to September, the margin was raised to 25%; when the settlement was settled, the margin was adjusted to 35%.

This ratio is substantially higher than the conventional 8%, 15%, and 25% margin standard values, indicating that the exchange hopes to resolve the contradiction between the low rate of contract and the low percentage of positions in advance, and actively guide the intention of the two parties to move smoothly in September.

With the increase of trading margin, long investors need to spend nearly twice the amount of money to win the same profit as before. Especially in the futures market, the effect of the market is popular and the exchange regulation system is becoming more and more perfect.

Therefore, we judged that as the delivery month approached, the Bulls made a profit in the September contract, and the intention to move to CF1101 gradually increased significantly.

September contract will turn to a slight fall.

At this stage, it has entered the traditional off-season of textile industry, and the sales volume of textile products is falling.

Facing the constantly changing market of gauze and raw materials inventory, the textile enterprises are particularly cautious about raw material procurement.

The purchase and sale of the spot market continued to be slack, and some hoarding cotton enterprises began to actively export, resulting in the fact that the spot price was marginally profitable.

Taking into account the meeting of the NDRC and other departments in July 27th to discuss the issue of dumping and storage, it is rumoured that in August 15th, 600 thousand tons of national cotton reserves will be thrown away.

At present, the sharp rise in the September contract has attracted the attention of the relevant departments. In order to let the price pition smoothly in the new and old year, the attitude of the state to take control measures is clear.

The accelerated rise of the September contract is likely to turn into a slight decline and sideways reduction.

The new year contract will more reflect the basic situation, and the active shift of multi funds will become one of the reasons for the limited price drop.

Zheng cotton September contract capital pfer during the long contract period, with the market slowdown in economic growth and stock tension two worries, the frequency of cotton futures prices may accelerate.

In addition, cotton consumption is greatly affected by economic growth, especially the economic growth of China and the United States, while the Sino US economy is showing some signs of slowing down. The cotton performance will lag behind other commodities in the next half year.

Corresponding to Zheng cotton, CF1101 contract support at about 15800 yuan is exceptionally strong, 15800-18800 yuan / ton will become the core interval of cotton price fluctuation in the next half year.