The Monthly Export Growth Of Textiles And Clothing Surpassed The Level Of Last Month.

　　 This month is noteworthy. data The change is: on the positive side, the monthly export growth rate of textiles and clothing has exceeded the level of last month. overseas The clothing consumption market of the economy is running smoothly, and there is still a demand for continuous replenishment.

Consumer confidence has basically maintained a steady upward trend this year, supporting the prosperity of the domestic market. In order to meet the autumn listing of goods, the output of garment enterprises has obviously improved since June, and the discount sale activities in spring and summer are also in full swing, which is expected to further stimulate the growth of domestic sales. In the 2 quarter, the inventory of textile and leather manufacturing industry in China is still low, and the stock of clothing and footwear manufacturers is up 0.14%. In terms of price, fuel power prices have dropped significantly, the apparel factory price index has slowed down, and the effect of cost shifting has begun to appear in the lower reaches.

On the negative side, the macro-economic boom is ahead of the index and consistent. index Beginning to fall, the warning index continues upward, indicating that there may be inflection points in the macroeconomic boom. The monthly growth rate of industrial added value for the first time in June dropped, suggesting that the probability of slowing export growth in the future is increasing. The level of urban residents' income has declined from the previous years, and residents' confidence in the current income level and the growth of future income has dropped. They believe that prices will continue to rise, and that savings will continue to rise. This situation will increase the difficulty of increasing consumption. Textile raw materials prices continue to rise, bringing greater cost pressures to the production of enterprises.

Our views on the industry are as follows: in the medium to long term, the industry remains at a recovery stage.

The export dividend is gradually disappearing, the demographic dividend is coming to an end, the income doubling plan is expected to start and so on, which is the key to promote the transformation of the economic growth mode of garment and textile enterprises, and tap the core technology, brand and channel resources.

In the short term, the high export growth rate is expected before the 3 quarter, but the growth rate of the 4 quarter may slow down. The growth rate of domestic retail sales can continue to stay above 20%. The increase in clothing prices for the 3 quarter is likely to result in the increase of CPI in the 3 quarter. The profit growth in the 2 quarter and the 3 quarter will be more substantial than that in the first half of the year, resulting in a wave of performance driven rebound in the manufacturing sector. Investment recommendations: continue to be optimistic about the brand retail enterprises, and focus on recommending good news birds and rich Annas; in manufacturing enterprises, companies with low valuation and good performance are recommended to recommend civil aviation shares and Weixing shares; and pay close attention to the fast growing companies in the China Daily and the three quarterly reports, such as the Bank of China, Xun Xing shares and so on.