China Cotton Corporation: Outlook For Cotton Production And Demand In The Middle Of 2010

China Cotton Institute, the national cotton industry technology system and the public welfare industry scientific research special cotton project group, carries on the entire course monitoring and the analysis to the national cotton industry, releases the mid 2010 cotton industry economic operation report, provides the policy-making reference.

1. The whole country in 2010/11

China's cotton production boom index (CCPPI) was 300 in 2010/2011, rising 50 points and returning to 2008/09 level.

It is predicted that the trend of the cotton industry's economy will be stable and steady, and the area will be stable and difficult. The import will increase sharply and the price will run at a high level. The situation of cotton demand has not changed for three times.

The analysis pointed out that the financial crisis is external cause, and the growth cycle is internal cause. Under the two internal and external factors, China's cotton textile industry has entered a stable growth cycle.

CCPPI in the first half of the year was 248, 242, 253, 241, 256 and 245 respectively.

1.

With the growth of China's economy, the global economy has entered a trend of recovery and recovery. In the first half of the year, the export market of textile and clothing was very prosperous, with exports of US $88 billion 880 million, an increase of US $8 billion 860 million over the same period, an increase of 22%, which is higher than the 8.8% in the first half of 2008 (before the crisis).

Textile exports amounted to 35 billion 650 million US dollars, an increase of 32.3% over the same period last year, and clothing exports of US $53 billion 230 million, an increase of 16% over the same period last year.

In the first half of the year, the textile industry's production and sales situation was excellent. In 1-5, the textile industry realized a profit of 41 billion 800 million yuan, an increase of 63.8% over the same period last year.

In the 1-6 months, the sales of clothing, shoes and hats and textiles increased by 23.8%, and the amount was 275 billion 400 million yuan.

If GDP kept 8% growth in the second half of the year, the output of cotton yarn increased by 8% to 14 million tons, and the cotton yarn output for the whole year was 26 million tons. According to the cotton ratio 40%, the situation of 10 million tons of spinning cotton has not changed.

2, imports have increased substantially.

In the first half of the year, 1 million 545 thousand tons of cotton imported, an increase of 810 thousand tons, an increase of 110%.

3, prices rose at home and abroad, and the cotton market showed strong recovery.

In the first half of the year, the average price of cotton in China was above 16000 yuan / ton, up by 4000 yuan / ton compared with the same period, or about 35%.

In the first half of the year, the A index was 84.7 cents / pound, up 27.3 cents / pound, or 47.6%.

The price difference between home and abroad is reduced to 1000 yuan / ton under the condition of quasi tax.

4, the establishment of high yield is conducive to the stability of cotton production.

This year, the Ministry of agriculture has continued to carry out the construction of High-yield Cotton in 200 counties in 198 counties, which is conducive to the stability of production.

The cotton seed subsidy is fully covered, and the subsidy amount is 15 yuan / mu, which is beneficial to reduce production costs.

Two cotton production outlook in.2010

1, the cotton growth index (CCGI) in China was 79 in the first half of the year, indicating that the growth rate was worse than 20% over the same period last year.

The main characteristics are as follows: first, late sowing is delayed for more than 10 days.

Two, the national planting density increased by 8.1%.

The two is the poor growth in the first half.

In May, the CCGI was 62, the true leaf number was 1.5 pieces / plant, and the seedlings were worse than 40% in the same period last year.

In June, the CCGI was 85, the true leaf number was 7.7 pieces / plant, and the seedlings were worse than 15% in the same period last year.

In July, the CCGI was 90, and the number of fruit segments was 23 / plant. The overall seedling situation was worse than 10% in the same period last year.

Three, there is a big difference between the basins.

The three largest catchment is the best in the Yellow River, the second in the northwest and the worst in the Yangtze River.

2.

3, in the first and middle term, there are many disasters, strong intensity and large area of harvest.

Monitoring results, as of July 20th, the cotton field affected area of 71 million 230 thousand acres, accounting for 96.9% of the sown area, higher than the same period last year 25 percentage points, a net increase of 15 million 450 thousand mu times.

The disaster was 12 million 40 thousand mu times, increased by 1 million 390 thousand mu times, increased by 13.1 percentage points.

The area of harvest is about 750 thousand mu, the largest in recent years.

There are disaster areas in the three major producing areas. Among them, Jiangxi, Anhui and Hunan are the most serious areas along the Yangtze River and the lake area is 500 thousand mu.

Three, new cotton price outlook

(1) in the first half of the year, the cash input decreased, and the cost of employing workers rose continuously for 8 years.

Monitoring results, cotton production cash in the first half of this year invested 518.2 yuan / mu, a decrease of 12.2 yuan / mu, minus 2.3%.

The material cost was reduced by 25.1 yuan per mu, the labor cost increased by 12.9 yuan per mu, and the two counterbalance was reduced by 12.2 yuan / mu.

In the material cost, because of the unfavorable weather, fertilizer, pesticide and other inputs, the cost will be reduced.

(two) the price of new cotton is still rising, but it should not exceed 8 yuan per kilogram.

According to monitoring, by the end of February this year, cotton seed and cotton seed sold in 2009/10 were priced at 6.36 yuan / kg, which is higher than the 6.20 yuan / kg in 2003, which is the highest price since the accession to WTO in 2002, indicating that China's cotton price has climbed to a high level.

From the analysis of weather and production, growth, production and consumption, domestic and foreign resources and supply and demand balance, the new cotton price still has room for improvement. It is estimated that the price of new cotton will continue to rise by 20% yuan to 7.6 yuan / kg over the past 6.36 years, which is relatively reasonable.

According to the price of cotton seed 3 yuan / kg, the lint rate is 38.5%, the lint cost price is 15000 yuan / ton.

Plus brokerage costs of 260 yuan / ton, plus the cost and income of cotton ginning processing 1000~1500 yuan / ton, the relative rational price of the market is at the level of 16260~16760 yuan / ton.

There is a limited space for new cotton prices to rise again.

In terms of cost performance, the price of farmers' seed cotton is 7.6 yuan / kg, roughly in line with the 1:8 price, the wheat price is 2 yuan / kg, and the corresponding cotton price is 16000 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of grain and cotton competition, when prices rise to a reasonable level, they are no longer the only factor for cotton competitiveness.

Management of cotton is time-consuming, labor intensive and labor cost rising.

Look at fertilizer, monitoring results, the first half of the reduction in physical and chemical inputs, cost reduction does not support the new cotton prices rose too much.

From time to time, 4-7 months, the market lint 18000~19000 yuan / ton, corresponding to the price of seed cotton more than 8 yuan / kg (about 8.5 yuan / kg), there are more speculation factors, this high price and cotton farmers' income is not related, it is irrational price.

Overall, farmers' new cotton prices continued to rise by 20% over the previous year, while the space for significant increases was limited.

(three) several factors affecting the price of new cotton

1, from the perspective of yield and maturity, the uncertainty of output reduction has increased, the gap between supply and demand has increased, and the maturity is 10 days late.

In the middle and later stages of the weather, the output, premature maturity and the time to market are still around. Therefore, the key is weather.

2, from the perspective of price performance, grain prices in grain and cotton producing areas are rising.

The price of wheat in the Yellow River is 2.08 yuan / kg, and the rise in grain prices is conducive to the rise of cotton prices.

3, from futures, domestic and foreign prices are rising.

Zhengzhou CF009 rose from 15888 yuan / ton in January to 18670 yuan / ton in July.

Internationally, the futures price of New York Intercontinental Exchange rose from 73.34 cents in January to 79.05 cents / pound in July, all of which supported the rebound in the price of new cotton, which is the reaction of the market to the shortage of resources in October.

The International Cotton Advisory Committee predicts that the global cotton price will rise to 85 cents / pound in the new year, up 7.2% from 79.26 cents in the previous year.

4, from the perspective of cotton spinning enterprises, the cost is increased.

Starting from the second quarter, the wages of textile enterprises rose by 15% to 20%, and production costs increased by 5%. Since the beginning of the year, lint has increased by more than 30% and production costs have increased.

In June, the prices of clothing industrial products rose 1.9% and sales prices fell by 1%.

5, from the perspective of exports, most of the second half is not optimistic.

The main export markets, such as the United States and the European Union, have a high unemployment rate and a weak consumption. The economic recovery is fragile and uncertainty is increasing.

In addition, the RMB exchange rate and export tax rebate will affect exports.

Four. Take precautions, study and introduce guidance and price control measures, and actively guard against market risks.

1, strengthen market regulation and strive to achieve "Three Guarantees", that is, to ensure the stability of the new cotton market, to ensure that prices are relatively reasonable, and to protect cotton farmers' income. This is the main goal of China's cotton market regulation in the post crisis era.

2, early purchase guidance price.

"High priced cotton" does not necessarily benefit farmers.

In order to guard against risks and avoid buying, hoarding and selling, the 328 level seed cotton purchase price of 7.6 yuan / kg is recommended as the national guidance price.

3, actively guard against market risks, pay special attention to market speculation, prevent a large number of hot money from entering cotton purchase, disrupt the market.

4, optimistic about the national gate, the quota tariff rate can not be reduced to 5%.