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    Economic Operation Analysis Of Chemical Fiber Industry In The First Half Of 2010

    2010/8/6 11:32:00 108

    Chemical Fiber Industry

    According to the National Bureau of statistics data and customs data, 1~5 month, China Chemical fiber industry The total profit was 8 billion 66 million yuan, up 2 times compared to the same period last year. In 1~6 months, the output of chemical fiber was 14 million 473 thousand and 900 tons, up 13.43% compared to the same period last year. In 1~5 months, chemical fiber imports 365 thousand and 900 tons, an increase of 10.87% over the same period last year, and the growth rate decreased by month. In 1~5 months, the export of chemical fiber increased rapidly, and the export volume was 792 thousand tons, an increase of 50.21% over the same period last year.


    Since 2010, Domestic demand market With steady growth and gradual improvement of the international market, the operation of the chemical fiber industry has maintained a good momentum: stable growth in production and marketing, rapid recovery in exports, substantial increase in profits, and continuous improvement in the quality of operation.


       Production and sales are in good condition, and exports are recovering rapidly.


    In the first half of 2010, the output of chemical fiber increased steadily and exports recovered rapidly. 1~6 months, chemical fiber production reached 14 million 473 thousand and 900 tons, an increase of 13.43% over the same period last year. Among them, 11 million 604 thousand and 100 tons of polyester fiber, an increase of 13.31%; viscose fiber 953 thousand and 800 tons, an increase of 13.29%; spandex grew the fastest, an increase of 40.56%.


    1~5 months, chemical fiber imports 365 thousand and 900 tons, an increase of 10.87% over the same period, the growth rate narrowed month by month, mainly because the base number was lower at the beginning of last year, with the recovery of domestic and foreign economy and downstream market, the base gradually increased.


    In 1~5 months, the export of chemical fiber increased rapidly, with an export volume of 792 thousand tons, an increase of 50.21% over the same period last year. From the monthly view, the export situation of chemical fiber has been restored rapidly after the Spring Festival. The export volume in 3 months, 4 months and May is close to 200 thousand tons. 1~5 net export of chemical fiber products was 426 thousand and 400 tons.


    At present, the production and marketing situation of chemical fiber industry has been maintained well, but the production and marketing rate has declined compared with the same period last year. In 1~5 months, the average sales rate of chemical fiber industry was 96.82%, down 1.56 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Viscose industry production and sales rate fell 7.07 percentage points year-on-year, acrylic fiber industry dropped 6.27 percentage points, only the polyester industry slightly increased by 0.13 percentage points.


    At the beginning of this year, synthetic hair products Market prices rose in general and fell generally in May. Take polyester as an example: at the beginning of the year, the price of polyester filament yarn rose steadily under the pull of raw material prices, and the price of polyester fiber also declined slightly due to the factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, the recruitment difficulties of terminal weaving factories, and the decrease of raw material prices. In April, downstream polyester polyester products gradually entered the peak season of consumption. The price of polyester products increased, but polyester staple began to decline in the first half of April. In May, with the rapid decline of raw material prices, the prices of polyester products also dropped sharply. In June, Zhejiang Province issued a notice of electricity limitation for peak summer, involving a large number of polyester polyester enterprises, plus a good downstream demand for polyester filament, and downstream factories actively stocked on the basis of a strong reduction in production, prompting a strong upturn in polyester filament prices. Because of the high inventory of polyester staple, the market in June followed the decline in May and gradually stabilized.


    Due to the rapid recovery of chemical fiber production, the supply of raw materials in China was slightly tense, and the import of some raw materials increased significantly. 1~5 months, the main raw materials for synthetic fiber imported 6 million 670 thousand tons, an increase of 11.62% over the same period, of which ethylene glycol and terephthalic acid imports reached 2 million 850 thousand tons and 2 million 720 thousand tons respectively, representing an increase of 18.92% and 4.93% compared to the same period, and the import of caprolactam also increased by 21.25%. The total import of 536 thousand and 900 tons of raw materials has increased by 59.74%, of which, the import of man made wood pulp has reached 400 thousand and 700 tons, an increase of 40.50%, and the import of cotton lint has increased by 3 times.


       Economic benefit growth and operation quality improvement


    According to the statistics of National Bureau of statistics, the total profit of chemical fiber industry in 1~5 months was 8 billion 66 million yuan, up 2 times compared with the same period last year. The deficit of loss making enterprises was 661 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 68.67%, and the total industry deficit was 14.57%, down 10.09 percentage points compared with the same period last year.


    In 1~5 months, the chemical fiber industry achieved a total industrial output value of 187 billion 625 million yuan, a sharp increase of 37.79% over the same period last year, and the main business income was 182 billion 474 million yuan, a sharp increase of 36.94%.


    From the four major indicators of the quality of operation tracked by the industry, the debt paying ability, operating capacity, profitability and development ability of the industry have improved significantly, especially the profit margin of the industry has increased by 2.4 percentage points to 4.42%.


    In the chemical fiber industry, three items of sales income per hundred yuan have decreased significantly, and sales expenses, management expenses and financial expenses have decreased by 6.86%, 12.78% and 10.82% respectively.


    After the financial crisis, the chemical fiber industry has recovered earlier and better enough to give investors enough confidence. In 1~6 months, the number of construction projects in the chemical fiber industry reached 339, 195 new projects, and the actual investment amounted to 14 billion 838 million yuan, an increase of 29.25% over the same period last year. According to the industry, the investment in nylon industry has increased by 65.81%, the synthetic fiber industry has increased by 59.17%, and the polyester industry has increased by 11.05%.



    Table 12010 1~5 monthly chemical fiber sub sectors economic efficiency comparison table
    Source: National Bureau of Statistics * According to the association, acrylic fiber industry 1~5 The month is actually a loss, which was profitable during the same period last year.
    {page_break}
    Raw material prices shock downstream downstream demand steady growth
    Raw materials: international oil prices declined in January. In 2 and March, driven by investors' optimistic expectations of economic recovery and energy demand, international crude oil prices continued to rise. But a sharp drop in May was mainly due to a continuous rise in US crude oil inventories, and the drop in oil prices was also related to global economic uncertainty. By June, the price of crude oil had gone up again, mainly due to the peak of summer oil consumption and the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
    With the fall in crude oil prices, PX prices also fell rapidly in January, but due to imbalance between supply and demand, in February did not rise with the rise in crude oil prices. By mid March, PX prices rebounded over and over, but for a long time, they remained volatile, and fell with crude oil prices in May. In June, despite the rebound in international crude oil prices, the supply of goods in the PX market was still excessive, and the market trend was weak. The price trend of PTA is roughly the same as that of PX, but because of futures, it is more stable than PX.
    The price of EG rose too fiercely at the end of last year, and was largely stimulated by speculative purchases, resulting in a huge price bubble. At the beginning of this year, with the fall in crude oil prices, the EG bubble burst, and its price dropped sharply. Subsequently, affected by the rising supply of the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, the import volume of our country increased dramatically, and the stock of port area increased rapidly. In addition, with the commissioning of new domestic installations, the domestic market of EG was in excess of demand, and prices continued to fall.
    The change of raw material prices will not only affect the production cost of enterprises, but also directly bring profits or losses to enterprises. Considering the factors of purchasing or inventory cycle, the profit margins of the industry vary greatly.
    Downstream market: chemical fiber downstream of the 9 major varieties, the output grew year-on-year, of which the main varieties: chemical fiber yarn growth of 28.66%, chemical fiber cloth increased by 12.15%, non-woven fabrics and cord fabrics increased by 19.28% and 18.12% respectively. The output growth of some products has slowed down compared with the previous months, mainly due to the gradual increase in the base of the year-on-year base.
    Judging from the volume of China Textile City, the volume of Spring Festival resumed rapidly, but due to the late Spring Festival last year, the volume of turnover in 2, 3 and April was lower than that in the same period last year, and reached the same level in 5 and June.
    Since the beginning of this year, domestic cotton prices have continued to rise rapidly under the influence of market warming, industry demand expansion and difficulties in Sinotrans cotton transportation. However, due to the limitation of import quotas and the rhythm of issuing, the supply of domestic market is unable to meet the demand of the market. The domestic cotton market is still unable to make full use of the international market resources for price adjustment, prompting the domestic cotton because of the high supply tension, resulting in the price continuing to accelerate.
    Due to the obvious substitution relationship between chemical fiber staple and cotton, the continuous rise of cotton prices has opened up some market space for chemical fiber staple, and the price of chemical fiber staple, especially viscose staple fiber has also risen.
       The market will remain at a high level in the second half of the year.
    The objective environment for the operation of the chemical fiber industry in 2010 is "resuming growth". In view of the cyclical regularity of the operation of the chemical fiber industry, China's chemical fiber industry will enter a new rising cycle in 2010, and the actual operation of the industry in the first half of this year has confirmed this. However, with the gradual reduction of the low base factor last year, the economic growth in the second half of this year will be slower than in the first half. Specific predictions are as follows:
    Market: affected by the recovery of global economy, crude oil prices will rise sharply, thus promoting the price of synthetic fiber raw materials, and the rise of cotton prices will also play a role in price comparison of chemical fiber staple. On the other hand, the growth of demand will also play a stimulating role in the price of chemical fiber products, but at present, most of the chemical fiber products have reached a fairly high price. Considering the downstream affordability, it is expected that the market prices of chemical fiber products will remain high and volatile in the second half of the year.
    Output: steady growth. The output is expected to reach 29 million 800 thousand tons, an increase of about 10%.
    Import volume: a small increase, it is expected to import 900 thousand tons, an increase of about 5%.
    Volume of exports: a substantial increase, and exports are expected to reach nearly 2 million tons, an increase of around 35%.
    Economic benefits: a substantial increase, with a total profit of 12 billion ~135 billion yuan.
    Operation quality: continue to improve.
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