People Say ICE Cotton: Capital To Do More, Continue To Cotton Upward Trend

ICE cotton can be delivered only 6628 tons of inventory, while CCC stock is only 156 thousand and 300 tons, resource constraints attract attract speculative buying, ICE cotton continues to rise, the main contract in December to 0.17 cents to 80.23 cents / pound, stand at 80 cents / pound integer pass.

At present, the ICE cotton rally will continue, and the December contract is expected to challenge the pressure area of 84-87 cents / pound.

But on Thursday, USDA will announce the first production forecast report in the new year, which may inhibit the rise of the market. It is advisable to cautiously increase the ICE period cotton.

Technically, the December contract stands at 80 cents / pound integer pass and the short term moving average, and the short-term average continues to go up through the medium term average line and continues to rise in a long way. Meanwhile, KD and MACD index continue to rise in a long way. The MACD index red column is in a high position, and the technical side will continue to rise. The December contract will challenge the strong pressure area of 84-87 cents / pound after December's steady 80 cents / pound. It is recommended to keep the long way of thinking and continue to hold more cotton stocks.

Domestic cotton continued to slow up on Friday, and domestic yarn prices fell and investors forecast.

Fund net increase ICE cotton continues to rise

Last Friday, the US dollar continued to drop under the influence of news.

In the international market, according to the latest statistics from the US Department of labor last weekend, the number of non farm workers in July dropped by 131 thousand, 60 thousand more than analysts expected, and the unemployment rate remained as high as 9.5%. The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will introduce new measures to stimulate economic growth this week (10). Meanwhile, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister announced that the ban on grain exports may be adjusted according to crop yields.

On the basic level, Pakistan floods threaten the main grain producing areas of cotton, and continue to form more stimulus to the market. Extreme disasters, including China, continue to support agricultural products, and further attract more speculative capital into the commodity futures market. According to the latest CFTC based speculative positions, as of August 3rd, the total position increased by nearly 9% to 179080, and the speculative net bull rate increased by 5.35 percentage points to 13.14%, which reminded us to pay attention to the monthly supply and demand report released by USDA on Thursday (12).

Zheng cotton on the weekend strong shock, which far month May contract performance is strong, highlights the main funding chasing key points, domestic fundamentals, cotton rose well, spot high level quotation maintained at high level, dumping storage has not yet been officially announced, the market is easy to rise or fall.

On the operation, keep buying in the long term.

(pioneering futures Dong Shuangwei)

U.S. cotton rose slightly, waiting for USDA supply and demand report

On Friday, the ICE cotton contract opened at 80.06 in December and fluctuated between 79.46-80.71 and us. Because of the investor's buying, this part was related to the tight delivery of cotton. The cotton market ignored the peripheral market's weakness and ended up a slight gain of 0.17 cents, reaching 0.21%, and continued to close to 80 cents.

Technically speaking, cotton futures in December received a cross line star, and closed above all the EMA. The short term is still a strong form. Whether or not the summit still needs to be observed, but on Thursday, the video shows that the high profit margins are huge, so the probability of high finishing in the short term is too large. If it breaks 79 cents, it is likely to trigger a large number of sell-off.

On the basic side, cotton production in Texas, the main producing area, is beginning to worry experts. Because the cotton leaves in the western region have begun to turn yellow, such worries will have some support for us cotton. But the huge impact on the market is still on the USDA's report on crop production coming out on Thursday. So investors can wait for the report to take into consideration the entry paction.

On the domestic side, on Monday, five zhengmian did not fluctuate much during the whole day, and the shrinkage was reduced. This was mainly due to the psychological impact of the long shadow on the US cotton market to a certain extent on Thursday, but in the end, it led to a slight increase of 20 points, driven by the sharp rise in bulk commodities.

The US cotton rose slightly on Friday, and is expected to have a relatively small impact on Zheng cotton today. Zheng cotton will continue to have a high probability of consolidation on Friday.

On the operation, the air can wait for 16600 to break down and then intervene again, and the stop loss can be set to 16650.

(Changjiang futures Wang Jian)

Cotton futures prices are rising steadily.

ICE cotton futures rose slightly on Friday. The most active December contract rose 17 points to 84.40 cents.

At present, the fundamentals of supporting cotton prices are the speculation of stocks and weather. ICE cotton inventories continue to decrease, and cotton demand increases in the current quarter, while supply decreases and US cotton exports increase. This makes ICE cotton inventories down more than 90% this year.

Hot weather in some cotton producing areas in the United States may reduce crop yields. In addition, the rising trend of technology and the rising price of CBOT grain futures have also attracted speculators to intervene in cotton futures with characteristics of agricultural products. Although the current growth rate has stabilized and narrowed, the trend is still expected.

The rise of outer cotton also supported the relatively weak futures price of zhengmian. Besides, the adverse weather conditions in the country caused the disaster of Xinjiang production and the real estate cotton area to varying degrees. This also attracted more speculative intervention and made Zheng cotton live high.

The situation in the stock market is relatively weak, cotton prices are falling steadily, and the price of spot lint is weak. In addition, there is an uncertain policy of dumping and storage, which limits the rise of cotton prices. It is expected that in the short term, Zheng cotton will be mainly stable, with a slight increase in stability.

(Haitong futures Zhengzhou Sales Department: Zhang Jianwei)