Macro Economy Anticipate Commodity Weakness

From the main domestic macro data released this week, the main contradiction in the next stage of the domestic economy will be the contradiction between ensuring growth and adjusting the structure.

This statement seems to be large and empty, and it is necessary to refine it.

From the end of last month to the beginning of this month, the main leaders of the Central Committee repeatedly mentioned "ensuring growth". From this point of view, we can see two points: growth is the foundation, and growth has encountered resistance.

From this perspective, expansion in the second half of this year

Monetary policy will remain relaxed in the second half of the year. New loans are expected to remain at 550 billion per month, but the direction of loans may gradually change.

For example, to reduce real estate mortgage loans, increase the company's medium and long-term loans, especially small and medium enterprises loans.

Industrial policy has entered a relatively short period of observation and discussion at this stage.

Since the introduction of the regulation and control policy of real estate in April, the price of real estate in the country has increased by 0.2%, -0.1% and 0% for 3 consecutive months.

Real estate prices have not dropped significantly. From this perspective, the real estate policy needs to be tightened.

From the bank stress test results, the real estate policy has continued to tighten the foundation.

Overall, the slowdown in China's economy in the second half of this year is a consensus.

Economic growth in the first half of the year has laid a good foundation. In the second half of the year, while maintaining growth, the policy will also take into account the general trend of structural adjustment.

Therefore, the overall demand in the second half of this year will be weaker than that in the first half.

For the United States, the main contradiction in the current economy is the contradiction between stimulating the rapid economic growth in the short term, promoting employment and resisting inflation in the long run.

The current debt level and deficit level in the United States limit the fiscal policy of the United States. The task of stimulating the economy mainly falls on monetary policy.

The United States maintains loose monetary policy in the short term not only to stimulate the economy, but also to dilute the debt, but the long-term easing monetary policy has brought huge inflation worries.

Looking back at the economic crisis of the United States over the past 10 or so times in the last century, there is often a long period of loose monetary policy as a precursor. Before the crisis, asset prices are soaring and inflation is high.

If European debt is Europe's Damour sword, the inflation risk is the same as in the United States.

Moreover, this generation of us leaders' Education in monetary economics in the last century often attaches great importance to the dangers of inflation. This emphasis has even carved into their ideology the danger of inflation.

The current low inflation level in the US is mainly due to the high level of housing vacancy rate, the low capacity utilization rate and the "liquidity trap".

When the economy starts to recover steadily, it will be accompanied by a steady increase in inflation.

It is the existence of this major contradiction that determines that the recovery of the economy will not be smooth. In the short term, the demand for hedging will end the rebound of the euro.

In the long run, the exchange rate between the two currencies depends largely on the comparison of the productivity of the two countries, which also determines that the US dollar will strengthen in the medium to long term.

Based on the above judgments on the current major economic contradictions, the three quarter of commodities should show a pattern of overall weakness.