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Can Polyester Staple Fiber Continue To Rise?

2010/8/14 15:11:00 41

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Since late May,

Polyester fiber

The price of staple fiber dropped to less than ten thousand yuan. In the following two months, from the "analysis chart of the price trend of PET staple in East China", we can clearly see that the market price of polyester staple fiber in East China shows a "W" trend. Although the rebound has occurred during the period, the market price of polyester staple fiber is still low, below 10000 yuan.

Near the end of the July, the market trend of polyester staple fiber has begun to rise steadily, and the market has entered a rising channel again. Can the market continue to rise and effectively recover lost territory?

International crude oil rebounded sharply

Crude oil futures are the source products of the industrial chain.

market

It acts as a weathervane.

Since crude oil fell below 80 US dollars / barrel in May 6th, the price of international crude oil has gone through nearly three months of turbulence and consolidation, and the market has been in a stalemate between 70-80 US dollars / barrel. Until August 2nd, the oil price in New York rose sharply, and the international crude oil price stood on another 80 US dollars, eventually closing at the price of 81 dollars per barrel, becoming the highest price in nearly three months.

The dollar is weakening and so on.

Factor

Boosted, the international crude oil futures prices continued to rise for 3 consecutive days, and oil prices in New York and London rose to above $82 a barrel.

As of the end of the day, the New York Mercantile Exchange delivered light crude oil futures in September, rising 1.21 US dollars to 82.55 dollars per barrel; Brent crude oil futures in the London market rose 1.86 US dollars to settle at 82.68 US dollars per barrel.

At the same time, the current trend of raw materials PX market continues to substantially increase trend, as of August 3rd, of which Asian market raw material PX closing price rose sharply, FOB Korea closed price rose sharply to 24-927 U.S. dollars / ton nearby, CFR Taiwan closing price rose sharply to 939-941 U.S. dollars / ton.

Two, raw materials

Continued

Rising costs push up

PTA is the main raw material of polyester staple fiber, which accounts for more than eighty percent of the production cost of polyester staple fiber. According to relevant research, the correlation between price fluctuation of PTA and PET staple is also as high as 80%. Raw material PTA has become one of the main cost factors of polyester price rise.

Recently, the PTA spot market has been rising strongly due to the influence of PX price of raw materials.

The main PTA producers in China settled at 7250 yuan / ton in July, and the price in August was 7350 yuan / ton.

At present, the PTA spot market continues to be strong and strong.

As of August 4th, the market price of East China's internal market was stable and strong, and the seller's offer price remained between 7300-7350 yuan / ton, and the seller was reluctant to sell. The market actually negotiated the price stable near 7250-7300 yuan / ton, while the PTA external market continued to operate steadily. The price of the seller's offer in Taiwan and the bonded goods market was concentrated near 885-890 dollars / ton, and the market offered a rare offer, and the market's actual negotiating price remained at 875-880 dollars / ton.

Another upstream raw material MEG, its market share also continues upward trend.

Among them, the market price of the internal market continued to rise, the price in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang market rose from 6500 to 6550 yuan / ton, the market enquiry began to increase, and the mainstream market negotiated prices rose to 6450 to 6500 yuan / ton, and the market shipments increased accordingly.

Three, market demand is still an important factor.

We know that cost factor is not the only factor leading to the change of polyester staple market. Demand is the most important factor to decide the future trend of PET staple market.

The recent market performance of yarn is still mild. Its price has changed slightly, and the market has remained stable.

Judging from the market situation of pure polyester yarn, the market of pure polyester yarn keeps stable in recent years, and the market price of 21S pure polyester yarn is still stable near 14600 yuan / ton. The market price of 32S pure polyester yarn is still stable near 16500 yuan / ton, and the market price of 45S pure polyester yarn is kept near 18500 yuan / ton. The market price of 50S pure polyester yarn is also stable at 19500 yuan / ton, and the price of the market's products is basically unchanged. The overall market of the product is better, the profit margin is better, and the stock pressure is not great.

Judging from the market situation of polyester cotton yarn, the market of polyester cotton yarn has stabilized and consolidated.

market

The price trend of various products has been strong. The price of polyester cotton yarn 65/35 32S market is basically stable near 20500 yuan / ton. The market volume is relatively stable, and the polyester cotton yarn 65/35 32S has a good trend.

Therefore, it is expected that the yarn market will remain stable in the short run.

Four, the difference between size and size is pulled.

In addition to the influence of the upstream and downstream market factors, the low price turnover of the polyester staple fiber in the early stage has also played a certain role in the sale and sale of polyester staple fibers.

It is understood that the price of large polyester staple fiber has been continuously lowered, and the price difference between Sinochem and miniaturization has been narrowed.

profit

The space is further reduced, while the survival pressure increases.

According to the news, Sinopec polyester staple fiber July settlement price, its 1.4D direct spinning settlement price of 9850 yuan / ton, bright 1.2D: Yijin settlement price 10450 yuan / ton, Shanghai Jinshan settlement price 10500 yuan / ton.

Its August contract pre quoted price is 1.4D half light 10000 yuan / ton, 1.2D half light quotation is 10050 yuan / ton, and 1.2D gloss offer is 10600-10650 yuan / ton service price.

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Can polyester staple recover land lost?

Judging from the current market situation of polyester staple market in China, the upstream raw materials, whether the price of international crude oil futures can continue to rise and whether it is expected to climb to more than 88 US dollars / barrel, the opinions of different market participants are different. However, it can be predicted that under the support of many favorable factors, the possibility that the international crude oil futures price will fall back to 80 US dollars / barrel in the short term is not very likely, and its supporting role in the market of polyester staple fiber is obvious on the cost side.

According to the current market prices of raw materials PTA and MEG, the cost of direct spun polyester staple production is (7250 - 7300 yuan / ton (PTA price) *0.855+6450 - 6500 yuan / ton (MEG price) *0.335+350 yuan / ton) *1.011+600 yuan / ton =9405 - 9465 yuan / ton.

From this we can see that at present polyester staple manufacturers have low profits and great cost pressure.

The present domestic PET staple fiber

market

In terms of market price, there is a rising base.

If the upstream raw material market can maintain a firm trend, it will support the cost in the short term.

Spun

The possibility of falling market prices is not large, and whether the market will continue to rise, and the key to recovering land lost depends on the market demand performance.