The Overall Weakness Of US Cotton Futures Is Greatly Influenced By External Factors.

Recent moves by central banks seem to indicate that the global tightening cycle is advancing strongly.

Since the end of the global recession in mid 2009, 14 central banks have begun to raise interest rates.

Global monetary policy is expected to remain very loose in 2010.

Improper monetary policy will bring huge risks.

Too long monetary policy lasts for a long time, which will lead to difficult choices for monetary policy in developed countries: either allowing inflation to rise or raising interest rates vigorously when government debt is high.

Central banks are more likely to choose the former: allowing for a time of high inflation to help alleviate the government's debt burden.

ICE us

The most active 10 years December contract opening price of 84.18 cents, the highest intraday 84.79 cents, the lowest 83.72 cents, closing price 84.02 cents, down 0.16 cents, turnover 15520 hands, the last day settlement price 84.18 cents, empty volume 139144 hands.

In 2011, the opening price of the contract in 03 months was 82.29 cents, the highest point was 82.94 cents, the lowest point was 82.05 cents, the closing price was 82.51 cents, 0.04 cents lower, the turnover was 5175 hands, the last day settlement price was 82.55 cents, and the empty volume was 48566 hands.

US Department of agriculture (USDA) August report predicts global 2010/11

The top four cotton textile countries, China, India, Pakistan and Turkey, are expected to account for about 73% of global cotton consumption in 2010/11, close to 2009/10, but higher than 2006-08's share of about 71%.

However, the share of China and India (the two largest spinning countries) offset a slight decrease in Pakistan and Turkey (Figure 1).

In 2010/11, China and India constituted 70 million 400 thousand packages of world cotton consumption, or 58% of total cotton consumption.

At the same time, the sum of Pakistan and Turkey is estimated to be 17 million 500 thousand packs, or about 15% of the total consumption.

As of August 15th, 47% of the US cotton was rated as good and 16% of the US cotton was rated the best. Compared to last week, the good and excellent ratio was 47% and 18%, compared with 41% and 12% in the same week last year.

As of August 15th, the fruit setting rate of cotton in the United States was 90%, 84% last week, 82% in the same week in 2009, 83% in the 5 year, 14% in cotton bolls, 9% last week, 9% in the same week in 2009, and 11% in 5 years.

The exchange data show that in August 12th, the certificate inventory was 25504 packages, and in August 13th, the certification stock was reduced to 19394 packages, and 6110 copies were revoked.

Today's ICE cotton closes: