The Good Days Of All Cotton Yarn Are Gone Forever.

From the end of 6 to the end of the month. Cotton yarn The good days are gone forever. In a short span of half a month, most manufacturers have hundreds or even thousands of price cuts.

Many people believe that July is the traditional textile off-season, and that the price of all cotton yarn is falling. This is normal. In the coming textile season, the price of all cotton yarn will rise again following the peak season. But the author thinks otherwise, in the short term, the author thinks that there is still room for reducing all cotton yarn.

First, dumping reserves will restrict the shipment of cotton. Market quotation Slipped slightly

From the recent results of dumping and storage, although the price and spot price of dumping and storage are in stock. Market quotation Almost the same, but throwing the store still has a certain impact on cotton spot. From August 10, 2010 onwards, the state began throwing 600 thousand tons of throwing cotton, according to the daily dumping of about 15 thousand tons, to remove holidays, the total throw can be carried out for about 2 months, the dumping will continue until the national day, this time coincides with the new flower listing, 16500 yuan / ton may become the new and old cotton prices.

As textile enterprises focus more on the ongoing dumping and storage, spot purchase intention is not strong, cotton spot sales stagnation phenomenon, prices have dropped slightly. At present, Hebei Hengshui area 3 class real estate cotton belt ticket quoted price is 18200-18300 yuan / ton, 4 level is 17700-17800 yuan / ton, 5 grade real estate cotton price 16700 yuan / ton. The local three class Xinjiang cotton cash is quoted at 18600-700 yuan / ton, and the price has not been substantially adjusted for dumping. Last week, China's cotton price index continued to call back, and CC-Index328 fell 40 yuan a week. In the face of throwing and storing, cotton traders are actively shipping, and textile companies are concerned about the auction. Spot trading continues to be deserted. However, the current market is still relatively short of advanced flowers.

In addition, after the dumping began, domestic cotton producers lowered their quotations by 100-300 yuan, plus the weather in Pakistan and the United States and other cotton producing areas were better. The harvest is expected to continue to strengthen. This also has great pressure bearing on the ICE cotton. In the short term, the futures callback pressure is greater. Generally speaking, the 8-9 month is the period when the outer cotton reaches the main port area of China. Because of the late sowing of cotton seeds during the cotton planting period for about 10 days this year, there are also 10-15 days of late harvest in the new flower market. In the middle and late 9, the new cotton will be on the market again. At that time, the import volume of cotton imports will continue to decline.

Two, import yarn prices dropped sharply, domestic yarn market profits still impressive.

Recently, when domestic small factories have launched low price cotton yarns, domestic import yarn enterprises have also lowered their quotations. According to the data from a US investigation agency, the average price of 30S combs in Pakistan, India, Turkey and Indonesia is 3.36 US dollars / kg, 3.35 US dollars / kg, 3.75 US dollars / kg, 3.36 US dollars / kg respectively, the price of RMB is 26450 yuan / ton, 26400 yuan / ton, 29130 yuan / ton, 26500 yuan / ton. Even with tariffs and freight and warehouse charges, there is still a gap of several thousand yuan with the domestic average price of 29000-30000 yuan / ton.

In domestic cotton prices continue to remain high, labor costs continue to rise, the market demand for medium and low grade cotton yarn has begun to pick up gradually, plus imported cotton yarn tariff is relatively low, transportation is more convenient, general trade discount price of RMB is also several thousand yuan lower than the domestic high price cotton yarn. Imported cotton yarn has become a development way for domestic textile enterprises to reduce production costs, and the gap of nearly 1000 yuan will also drag on the trend of domestic cotton yarn market.

Affected by the off-season of traditional consumption, the whole cotton yarn market continued to weaken. The total cotton yarn inventory continued to increase. By the end of July 2010, the average yarn stock of domestic textile enterprises increased slightly from 8.96 days in June to 9.48 days. The yarn stock of textile enterprises in Hubei continued for about half a month. At present, the price of the carding C32S tickets in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is 26000-27000 yuan / ton, and the price is 28500-29500 yuan / ton. Although the price of yarn has been adjusted earlier than before, the profit margin of the yarn market is still very large. At present, the price of the three grade of Xinjiang cotton is 18600 yuan / ton, and the cost price of the C32S combed cotton yarn is 25000 yuan / ton. Compared with the average selling price of nearly 28500-2950 yuan / ton in the market, there is still more than 3000 yuan profit margins.

Three, textile and garment exports have reached a new high and profit margins have not yet kept pace.

In July 2010, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to US $20 billion 795 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.41%, an increase of 27.01% over the same period last year. Among them, textile exports amounted to US $7 billion 191 million, an increase of 35.09% over the same period last year, and clothing exports amounted to US $13 billion 604 million, an increase of 23.12% over the same period last year. From September last year, hot sales swept the textile market. Customs data showed that from September 2009 to July 2010, China's textile and clothing exports totaled 171 billion 797 million US dollars, an increase of 16 billion 358 million US dollars, an increase of 10.52%. Among them, textile exports totaled $65 billion 387 million, an increase of 21.67% over the previous year, and clothing exports totaled $106 billion 410 million, an increase of 4.64% over the same period last year. Although good data bring gratifying results, we must not forget that last September to July this year, all kinds of textile raw materials increased by more than 20% (cotton yarn increased by over 50%), while the actual export prices did not follow this trend, and the domestic textile enterprises were thin in profit.

Four, other related factors {page_break}

Recently, the Ministry of Commerce announced the elimination of backward production capacity of printing and dyeing in 2010, which involved 201 printing and dyeing enterprises about 3 billion 814 million meters in production capacity, which also affected the printing and dyeing needs of downstream markets, thereby reducing the demand for the whole cotton yarn market. In addition, the recent environmental protection work in Shengze is still continuing. Zhejiang provinces and municipalities have also issued a power restriction policy for downstream weaving enterprises. Some warp knitting enterprises in Haining will implement the four stop three policy. The Changxin area requires the weaving enterprises to carry out the twenty day reduction in the near future to September, and the relevant policies in Tongxiang, Shaoxing and other regions are limited. As a result, the demand for the whole cotton yarn market will be further reduced.

In addition, recently, the US economy grew by 2.4% in the second quarter, and the growth rate declined for second consecutive quarters. In July, the number of jobs in the US non-agricultural sector decreased by 131 thousand, showing a negative growth for second consecutive months. Moreover, CISCO issued a warning of its performance, which deepened investors' worries about the economic recovery. Britain's Nationwide consumer confidence index plunged 7 points to 56, far below the previous forecast of 61, while the Australian Westpac consumer confidence index fell to 5.4%, while France's industrial output fell by 1.7% in June, a drop larger than expected in the market. These disappointing data make market participants still worried about the future market, or will drag on the export process of domestic textile and clothing, further restricting the market demand of all cotton yarn.

Five, outlook for the future

From the present point of view, cotton throwing and storage began, throwing and selling prices to the spot market to bring some guidance prices, but also limits the cotton spot to continue to see the high. The import yarn continued to decline, and the domestic yarn profit margins were still sufficient, which limits the overall cotton yarn market. Besides, textile and garment export profits continued to slump, which did not alleviate the pressure brought by the cost increase, and the pressure of textile and garment enterprises was heavy. In addition, the international economic situation is unstable, the printing and dyeing industry has eliminated backward production capacity, and the policy of electricity restriction in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, and the market demand of all cotton yarn has been further reduced. Taking all these factors into account, the price of all cotton yarn will also drop, but there will be little room for decline.