The Chinese Government Has Made An Announcement To Promote The Import Of &Nbsp; It Should Deal With The Pressure Of Appreciation Ahead Of Schedule.

At the regular press conference held by the Ministry of Commerce in August 17th, the expansion of imports did not become a hot topic unexpectedly.

Among the materials provided to reporters, "the situation of expanding imports" is rarely listed as a part. In the statement and answer of press spokesman Yao Jian, the related contents are also the key points.

Several days before and after, China promotes

In recent years, China has introduced a number of policies and measures to promote imports.

Sensitive surplus

July 2010, China

Driven by data in July, China's total trade surplus reached $83 billion 930 million between January and July this year, down 21.2% from the same period last year, but the decline has narrowed by 21.3 percentage points compared with the first half of this year.

The sharp narrowing of the surplus in the first six months almost ended with no effort.

The sharp increase in the surplus also raised the market's expectation of the favorable balance in the second half of the year.

In the view of market participants, this figure is certainly related to the export volume of refreshing historical records, but the main reason is a sharp fall in the growth rate of imports during the month, which means that China's domestic demand fell more than expected.

Although the Ministry of commerce still believes that domestic demand will not shrink and the trend of this year's surplus will not continue to change, the news spokesman Yao Jian has changed the surplus of around 100 billion US dollars in the last few months, saying "do not do fortune tellers", and refuses to make a forecast of the total surplus of this year.

In some economists' view, the increase in China's trade surplus is inevitable in the second half of the year.

Wang Qing, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Greater China, said China's trade surplus in the second half of the year is usually higher than the first half of the year. On average, the trade surplus of 2/3 per year has been concentrated in the second half of 2002.

The domestic economic situation will further promote the expansion of China's trade surplus.

On the one hand, China's import growth will slow sharply in the second half of the year as a result of the withdrawal of stimulus policies and stable domestic demand, coupled with stable international commodity prices. On the other hand, China's export growth will not drop rapidly in the light of G3 (US, Japan, Euro Zone) countries and other emerging market economic growth.

"China's share in the global market has increased, indicating that its external competitiveness has not been undermined."

Wang Qing thinks so.

The expansion of trade surplus inevitably increased the expectation of RMB appreciation.

Mark Williams Mark Williams, a senior research economist at Capital Economics, said that exchange rate would be a focus if China still maintained a large scale of favorable balance.

In addition to economic considerations, the upcoming mid-term election in the United States is also a factor.

Wang Qing said that taking into account the continued high unemployment rate in the United States, the appreciation of the renminbi will not be enough and the trade sanctions against China will soon increase. "In the second half of this year, the renminbi will face greater pressure to appreciate."

He predicted that by the end of 2010, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar would be 6.2 in 6.62011 years.

In view of this, the Chinese government's position is likely to plan ahead of the possible upward pressure on the increase in surplus, hoping to convey a willingness to reduce the surplus and promote trade balance by expanding the import attitude.

New trick

In addition to the short-term surplus and the pressure to reduce appreciation, expanding the import practice is also part of the Chinese government's desire to readjust its economic structure and pform its development pattern in recent years.

As early as 2007, before the financial crisis, the Ministry of finance, the NDRC and the Ministry of Commerce jointly promulgated the interim measures to encourage imports of technology and products, and the management of import discount funds.

In August 2009, according to the development of domestic industry, three ministries and commissions revised the catalogue of technology and products to encourage imports to better support the pformation and upgrading of domestic industries.

In the year of recovery, the Chinese government has expanded imports as one of its priorities.

This year's "government work report" clearly points out that the focus of foreign trade is to expand the market, adjust the structure and promote the balance, expand the import of advanced technology and equipment, key components and domestic scarce materials, stabilize various import promotion policies and facilitation measures, and urge developed countries to relax restrictions on the export of high-tech products.

Since the beginning of this year, the Chinese government has adopted a series of policies and measures to expand imports.

Further reduced the import tariffs on some raw materials and final consumer goods, reduced the total tariff level of China's imports to 9.8%, issued relevant policies for domestic sales of processing trade, further implemented import facilitation, abolished or decentralized the automatic import license management of some mechanical and electrical products; from July 1st this year, we gave zero tariff treatment to the least developed countries step by step; since July 15th this year, import of key equipment (including software tools and Technology), spare parts and raw materials for import of major science and technology projects are exempt from import duties and import value-added tax.

The current import and export policies and measures have basically formed a framework. Although the new measures to promote imports include the increase of import discount and resource refunds, the latest official statements of the Ministry of commerce are more likely to be the improvement of existing policies and measures, which are more reflected in the establishment of trading platforms.

In August 16th, the Vice Minister of Commerce, Zijin Mountain, wrote in the magazine "seeking truth" that the expansion of imports should stabilize various import promotion policies, improve the import promotion system, increase the degree of import trade facilitation, clean up the import management measures that are not suitable for the situation, and strengthen the trade docking with key countries by using free trade zones, zero tariff preferences, and trade and investment promotion platforms.

At a news conference in August 17th, Yao Jian said he would insist on promoting imports no matter in terms of policy measures or policy guidance, but he also stressed that most countries promote imports to build a platform for enterprises.

In his view, the upcoming 2010 China Import Forum, China International Investment and trade fair and the import exhibition of Canton Fair are all measures to promote imports and build platforms.

Yao Jian also said that the government's promotion of imports is one aspect, but the realization of imports ultimately depends on the needs of enterprises.