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China'S Exports Will Probably Drop By 15% In August.

2010/8/25 19:05:00 56

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Data released by Customs General Administration on 10 may show that in July this year, China

Export trade

The value and total value of imports and exports hit a new high since the financial crisis, the highest since July 2008.

Reality is not as optimistic as figures.

"Some time ago we went on investigating once, and the export situation was not as good as we thought it would be.

Our concerns are in the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of next year.

A customs official said.

The Ministry of Commerce, which is in charge of foreign trade, is basically in line with the above judgment, and thinks that the export situation is not stable this year.

Therefore, the relevant foreign trade policies in the second half of this year will still strive for stability, involving policies or fine-tuning of industries with high pollution and high energy consumption.

The market is not so good.

The customs officers were general in the past 7 months.

Trade

The growth of processing trade is analyzed.

He said that in terms of figures, the growth rate of exports under processing trade is obviously lower than that of general trade.

According to customs statistics, in the first 7 months of this year, China

Exit

Total value of 850 billion 490 million US dollars, an increase of 35.6%.

Among them, exports under general trade amounted to 390 billion 120 million US dollars, an increase of 38.3%, which was 2.7 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of exports. During the same period, the import and export of processing trade reached 629 billion 530 million US dollars, an increase of 36.1%.

The export was $398 billion 410 million, an increase of 32.4%, which was lower than the national export growth rate in the same period.

"Processing trade is more obvious than foreign demand, which means that the effective demand abroad is not as fast as imagined."

The customs officers said, "we believe that most of the orders are still in the replenishment stage."

"The growth rate of imports under processing trade is greater than that of exports, which means that the materials for enterprises to prepare for production in China are larger than those exported, and the growth of external demand has not reached the situation where the enterprises are optimistic.

Of course, there is a problem of production cycle. "

The customs officer said.

He also said that with the importance of Europe and the United States

Trade

Foreign enterprises' demand for Chinese products may be further weakened when the inventory cycle of partner countries is coming.

On the other hand, Asian emerging market countries headed by India are ushering in a surge of interest rates, which is not good news for China's exports.

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, analyzes the tightening of monetary policy in these countries, which will inevitably affect domestic demand and indirectly lead to a decline in China's exports.

From the internal environment, the pressure of medium and long term wage increases, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and the profit margins of export enterprises are narrowed. The accumulation of a number of factors may have a greater impact on the growth rate of exports.