The Cotton Planting Area Of The Yellow River River Basin Is Reduced By &Nbsp; Weather Affects Output.

Last week, the reporter went to the 2010 cotton research group of Zheng Shang and set foot in late August.

Enthusiasm for planting cotton is not high and planting area is reduced.

Journalists and all the people in the cotton producing areas have focused on a common problem: cotton planting area has decreased this year.

"Cotton planting area in Dezhou this year is about 1 million 550 thousand mu, down 32% compared with the same period last year. It is the least cotton planting area in 11 years."

Ma Junkai, Deputy Secretary General of Dezhou Cotton Association of Shandong Province, said.

"From 08 to 10 years, the cotton planting area in Heze is decreasing every year, and the reduction is difficult to change in a short time.

In the new year, the planting area of seed cotton is still decreasing, and it still takes a long time to expand the planting area. "

The director of Heze Agriculture Bureau told reporters.

Fang Jibin, general manager of Heze cotton and linen company, also said that the cotton planting area in Heze decreased by 13 thousand and 300 mu compared with the same period last year.

The head of Henan China cotton trading market limited told reporters: "although the cotton varieties planted in Fugou area are more than before, the planting area has decreased."

What causes the reduction of cotton seed area? "The main reason is that farmers' enthusiasm for growing cotton is not high, and farmers are unwilling to grow cotton."

Heze city agriculture bureau official said.

However, according to the reporter, cotton prices have climbed all the way since 2009.

In September last year, the purchase price of seed cotton was 3 yuan / Jin, which reached 3.65 yuan / Jin before spring. In May this year, the highest purchase price reached 4.2 yuan / Jin; in September last year, the price of lint cotton was 13000 yuan / ton, and 14800 yuan / ton before the Spring Festival, which rose to 16000 yuan / ton in 5-6 months this year, reaching 18500 yuan / ton in July.

Since cotton prices are so hot, why do farmers not want to grow cotton?

In response, Ma Junkai, a Dezhou Cotton Association, told reporters: "although the price is high, farmers are not cost-effective to grow cotton.

Last year, farmers in Dezhou planted an acre of cotton less than 290 yuan a mu of grain (corn and wheat), while planting more than 3100 yuan per mu of hot pepper than planting an acre of cotton. Dezhou farmers are naturally willing to grow chili.

According to Ma Junkai, the profit of cotton production is far lower than that of textile enterprises. Cotton producers are the disadvantaged groups in the cotton production chain. If this situation continues, the enthusiasm of cotton farmers will be lower.

In addition, the price of seed cotton is not protected by the national minimum purchase price, and the price of cotton is greatly affected by the market. Farmers are unable to bear the market risk of planting cotton.

Data show that the seed cotton purchase price in 2006 was 2.07-2.30 yuan / Jin, the purchase price in 2007 was 2.4-2.7 yuan / Jin, the purchase price in 2008 was 2.5-2.75 yuan / Jin, and the purchase price in 2009 was 2.95-3.80 yuan / Jin.

Fluctuations in the purchase price of large farmers dare not touch cotton, cotton seed area naturally one year less than a year.

Ma Junkai said: "if the seed cotton purchase price can reach 7 yuan / Jin, the state does not need to regulate and control, the farmers will be willing to grow cotton, and at present 5 yuan / Jin."

In terms of subsidies, cotton is also not as good as wheat, corn and other food crops.

Li Kun, an analyst with Guang Yong futures, told reporters that there were more than 100 yuan grain subsidy per mu in addition to seed subsidy, while planting cotton only 15 yuan per mu subsidy, lacking national policy and financial support, and farmers' willingness to plant grain instead of planting cotton.

In addition, according to local people, young and middle-aged labor force goes out to work and stays at home.

"At present, there is not enough labor force in the countryside, and the mechanization of cotton planting is low, and the labor force is time-consuming. The left behind labor force chooses to plant crops such as wheat and corn with high mechanization and less labor."

Shen Wan futures analyst Chen Shuan said.

Cotton is growing well and weather factors are important.

If the planting area is reduced, does it mean that the output of cotton will also drop? The reporter has made an on-the-spot investigation with the delegation that the cotton growth in the main cotton producing area of Hebei Province is good, and the output is increasing or decreasing.

According to the investigation, the cotton production in the high yield demonstration plot of the town in Fugou, Henan province is good.

At present, the average height of the cotton plant is 1-1.2 m, and the average number of peaches is 34. The number of peaches reached 28-30 in the same period last year. The planting density in this area is 1800 to 2000 per mu.

So far, there are no major pests and diseases in Fugou area. If the weather continues to be good in the future, the goal of producing 200 kg of lint per mu is expected to be realized, which is equivalent to 512 Jin of seed cotton.

The growth of cotton in Heze is also generally better than in previous years. Insiders say that if the latter weather is good, the yield per unit area is expected to be higher than in previous years.

The chief of the local agriculture bureau said, "this is mainly because the adverse effects of the weather on cotton this year are less than that of previous years, and the pests and diseases are also lighter."

"Because garlic and cotton intercropping make soil fertility better, Jinxiang county last year per mu yield 96 kilograms per mu, if the weather is coordinated, it is expected to exceed 100 kilograms in 2010."

Shi Weiman, director of Agriculture Bureau of Jinxiang County, Jining, Shandong, told reporters.

Because cotton has entered a critical period of growth, recent weather has become an important factor affecting cotton production.

Chen Shuan, an analyst, said: "if the temperature is normal or high, sunshine is enough, it will help cotton crack and boll opening. Low temperature and rainy weather will lead to poor cotton bolting, low boll weight, and yield and quality."

Wang Yong, an analyst with Hongyuan futures, said: "no matter what the cotton production in the world is from 2010/11 or from this survey, we can not despise the impact of climate on cotton production.

In the next 40 days, the weather conditions of the main cotton producing areas in China will have a significant impact on the cotton futures market.

Back to the futures market, the price of zhengmian 1101 main contract price has been climbing all the way, and yesterday it was up to 17460 yuan / ton yesterday, hitting a new high in the past two and a half years.

Dong Shuzhi, director of Jinshi Futures Research Institute, told reporters that the price of cotton futures is now upside down, and spot prices are higher than futures prices. Cotton prices in the future will still have room for improvement.

Liu Qing, an analyst at new lake futures, told reporters that the price of cotton in the future will be maintained for a short time.

It is reported that the output and planting area of the United States have increased over the previous years. The output of the United States is expected to increase by about 52% over the past year, and the area will increase by 20%.

India's output is expected to grow by about 10% this year.

Cotton production may drop by 30-40% in Pakistan.

China's annual demand is about 10 million tons, and imports of 2 million 382 thousand tons in 09 years. It is expected to import 2 million 722 thousand tons this year. The total output of the world is 3 million 200 thousand tons higher than that of last year, but overall supply is still in short supply, and the gap is about 870 thousand tons.

Liu Qing said: "a large number of global cotton market is expected in 9-12 months of this year, when cotton is listed in large quantities, cotton prices may fall back, but in the latter part of the year, the gap is expected to rebound."