Cotton Production And Yield Prediction In Sheyang County Of Jiangsu

From late August to early September,

Cotton planting area

According to the investigation and statistics made by the County Agricultural Commission, the county cotton has been planted in 19 townships, 250 villages, 1629 villagers' groups and 106 thousand and 800 farmers this year, covering an area of 45 acres and 4.21 Mu households.

Compared with the previous year, the actual planting area was 550 thousand mu, a net decrease of 100 thousand mu, a decrease of 18.18%. It is the year in which the cotton area of the county has continuously decreased and the annual decrease has been the largest in the past four years.

Two. Weather condition and its impact on cotton production

1. Weather conditions.

According to the weather information released by the meteorological department of the city and county and the weather record of the county cotton association, 13 rainy days occurred in the county from 21 days in August 21st to September 10th, and the total precipitation reached 266.3 millimeters, which was nearly 170 millimeters over the year. It was 15.3 times the 17.4 millimeter of the same period last year.

During the period from August 31st to September 1st, Typhoon No. 7 had been rubbed off the coast of Sheyang, causing some coastal villages and towns to be attacked by heavy rainfall and strong thunder and lightning. The rainfall of two automatic weather stations in Haitong and Qian Qian jurisdictions reached 127.3 millimeters and 128.5 millimeters respectively.

Continuous rain causes serious illumination, and sunshine hours are only 78 hours, which is more than 30% less than that of normal years.

2, the impact on cotton production.

Adverse weather has caused heavy losses to cotton production.

First, heavy damage.

Due to the continuous wet rain for a long time, the soil water content is saturated, and the water level of the inland river is relatively high, resulting in all cotton fields in the whole county being damaged, and some low-lying lands are seriously waterlogging. Two, the rotten bolls are increasing.

In August 20th, we did not see any spells of spade rot in field investigation. However, after the five date survey, it increased and increased.

In August 25th, the average rotten bolls per plant were 0.71, less than 0.06 in the same period last year.

In August 30th, the number of rotten bolls per plant was 1.09, less than 0.135 in the same period last year.

But by September 5th, the number of rotten bolls per plant has reached 1.90, which is 0.69 more than that of the same period last year.

In September 10th, the number of rotten bolls per plant increased to 3.79, 2.44 more than that in the same period last year. Three, the rate of abscission of bolls and bolls was high.

In September 10th, the average plant dropped 56.7 and the abscission rate was 59.1%, which is one of the higher years in recent years. Four, there is a phenomenon of premature senescence in some cotton fields.

Because of the influence of Waterlogging on cotton roots, vigor decreased, the ability of absorbing fertility decreased, cotton plants could not get nutrients in time, and some cotton fields appeared yellow fall.

Three. Seedling condition and yield prediction

1, the situation of Miao.

In September 10th, the county's planting and breeding station investigated and summarized the cotton growth and development in all counties of the county. The average plant days were 0.7 flowers per day, 6.43 young bolls and 23.52 big bells, which were 0.29, 0.85 and 3.7 respectively over the same period last year.

But the existing rate of shedding is also 2.27 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

2. Yield forecast.

According to the standard conversion rate of big bell 1:1, young bell 2:1 and 3:1, the boll per plant can reach 30.75, and the total number of bolls per mu is about 45 thousand. According to the boll weight of 4.5 grams and the average lint 37%, it is estimated that 202 kg of seed cotton can be produced and 75 kg of lint cotton is added, which is 18 kg and 5 kg respectively, respectively. The increase is 9.8% and 7.1% respectively, and the total lint yield of the county is about 34 thousand tons.

However, the influence of weather condition on the yield of the whole cotton picking season is still greater.

If the weather is fine and the light is sufficient, the shift of the frost date will be more conducive to the increase of boll weight and the increase of lint percentage.

On the contrary, it is difficult to guarantee the ultimate realization of the current forecast output.

Four, do a good job in the late management of cotton fields.

At present, the growth of cotton is worse than that of the normal year, but it is slightly better than that of the same period last year.

From now on, it is very important to do a good job in the late management of cotton fields.

The first is to clear the gully and deal with soil moisture.

At present, waterlogging is lighter, but dark waterlogging is serious, and it is easy to be ignored.

In response to this, the County Agricultural Commission issued an urgent notice in September 11th calling on all towns and villages in the cotton region to mobilize the majority of cotton farmers to attack and clear the gully, to reduce the water level of the "three trench", to eliminate the waterlogging damage as soon as possible, to improve the soil environment and to prolong the root activity.

Two, spraying nitrogen outside the root to prevent premature senility.

Due to the influence of waterlogging, root damage is heavier, and the ability to absorb water and fertilizer is weakened.

The roots were sprayed with nitrogen to rapidly replenish the nutrients of cotton plants, so as to prevent abscission and prevent premature senescence.

Three is to clean up the cotton plants to prevent rotten bolls.

We should do a good job of "four cleaning up" for the heavily overgrown fields, improve the ventilation and light pmission conditions of cotton plants as soon as possible, reduce rotten bolls and improve the quality, and timely remove yellow and rotten bolls to reduce yield losses.

The four is timely medication against insect pests.

In the later stage of cotton growth, we must persist in accordance with the opinions of the plant protection department, and strengthen the prevention and control of the main pests, so as to reduce the yield loss and quality decline caused by insect pests.