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The Bull Market Profile Of Cotton Is Still Significantly &Nbsp, Which Will Hit A New High In History.

2010/9/18 15:28:00 51

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Since last month,

American cotton

and

Zheng cotton

The suspension of the upward momentum of the whole process has shown a narrow oscillation, especially the 1101 contract of zhengmian main contract in August 20th, which dropped 225 yuan / ton. Does that indicate that the cotton futures price has been stagnated since then?

From the start of the 10 country store auction in August and the 9 day auction in August 20th, the total amount of cotton put into the market was 131837 tons, 130837 tons actually, and 22% of the plan was completed.

In terms of turnover, the number of pactions in August 19th decreased by 1000 tons compared with the number of listed companies, and the number of other 8 days of listing was all closed.

Excluding the impact of auction grade and cotton length on the price, the auction price is converted into a 328 level price, and the price falls from 18300 to 18400 to 17885, and the price falls little.

On the whole,

State Reserve Auction

The impact on the cotton market is very small.

There are three reasons for this. First, from the perspective of auction, 600 thousand tons of domestic cotton have been put on average, putting in about 1.5 tons a day and continuing to the new cotton market. The market has already digested this way.

Secondly, from China's cotton price index, from August 10th to 20, the 328 level of cotton price index has been hovering at the level of 18126 to 18142, with little change.

Judging from the current situation, the national cotton auction has no effect on the cotton price index. Third, judging from the futures trend, the fall in August 20th was mainly affected by the 19 days of the national stock market's 1000 tons and the sharp fall in the auction price. Its essence is that the cotton 1101 contract price has reached the pre high point of 17200, the volume of pactions has shrunk, and the market lacks the power to break through. The direct inducement is a systematic collapse on Friday, and the cotton broke the previous oscillation interval.

Another month, new cotton began to list continuously, but the author thinks that the new cotton listing this year has limited the price.

Since 2009, the high cotton price has not brought the enthusiasm of farmers to grow cotton. In 2010, the area of cotton fields increased slightly compared with last year.

In 2010, cotton fields in China suffered bad weather for several times. From the beginning of cotton planting, the disaster weather in Xinjiang and the two major cotton producing areas in the South made the cotton growing in poor condition and endanger the final output.

From the end of July to the middle of August, the rainstorm in North China has been torrential. The rainy weather is not suitable for cotton growth. The yield of cotton is not optimistic when the yield is threatened continuously and the quality of new cotton is affected.

In addition, driven by the rising grain prices such as wheat and corn, cotton farmers have a higher psychological expectation of new cotton and a strong desire to sell. It is estimated that the listing of new cotton will not strongly suppress prices, and cotton prices are likely to come out of a small decline and then rise sharply.

If the time span is enlarged, from the cotton monthly chart, the bull market began to start in December 2008, and the profile of the bull market has not changed.

The author believes that before the launch of the new cotton market this year, a slight pullback is intended to prepare for a larger increase, and cotton maintains a new trend of striking a new record.