Global Cotton Prices Are High.

In September 20th, cotton futures on the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange jumped to a higher level and rushed through the 20000 yuan mark per ton, then sealed on the daily limit.

Cotton futures on the New York futures exchange hit a 15 year high last weekend.

Global cotton is hot and the price is high.

Market participants pointed out that

International: new high

Gold and stone

Last week, the New York futures exchange cotton futures rose 7.6%, and the fund was actively buying.

Last Friday, the most active December contract also rose 2.46 cents to 98.22 cents a pound, the highest closing price since 1995.

Due to weather reasons, many cotton producing countries are expected to reduce production. The floods in Pakistan have reduced cotton production by 17%. China's humid weather also damaged cotton growth.

At present, the supply of cotton worldwide is tight. It is estimated that the supply of cotton will fall to 45 million 440 thousand packs at the end of 2010/2011, the lowest level in nearly 16 years.

The US Department of agriculture's latest report shows that the final inventory dropped to 9 million 892 thousand tons, and the end to end inventory consumption ratio dropped to 37.7%, a 15 year low.

Market analysts believe that

China: full line Trading

Affected by the new high international cotton price, the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange rose in September 20th.

Dong Shuzhi pointed out: "the current market is generally expected to reduce cotton production in 2010/2011."

Guan Tong Yuan, an analyst at Guan Tong futures, pointed out: "now the main contract of Zheng cotton is the 1105 contract, which represents the new year's cotton. Zheng cotton's rise is mainly based on the tight supply and demand of the new cotton market in the domestic market."

Ma Yuan Yuan also pointed out: "Hebei, Shandong, Xinjiang, China's main cotton producing areas weather is not good, the early prediction of production is a significant reduction in production, the yield ranges from 20% to 30%.

Of course, it is now the critical period for cotton growth, and we can not draw a final conclusion. The final output may be different from forecast.

Since September, new cotton has been listed on the market, but the market price has not dropped because of the new cotton market, but on the contrary, it is getting higher and higher.

"On the one hand, due to the excessive rainfall, the new cotton market has been postponed for a long time. On the other hand, the quality of the first listed cotton is not good. The continuous rainfall leads to cotton pollination. The buds and flower bolls are seriously shedding, and the cotton peas are not yet long enough to be hit by rain.

In addition, the old cotton inventory is running out and the new cotton market is postponed. The market is in a period of severe shortage, and the supply shortage is still obvious.

Dong Shuzhi said.

Ma Yuan Yuan told reporters that demand for cotton last year was 10 million 350 thousand tons. This year's demand will also increase by about 200 thousand tons. "Since last year, the downstream cotton spinning and weaving enterprises have been doing well in sales, and the garment industry has continued to warm up."

Price: high level consolidation

"In the short term, there will be no major changes in the fundamentals of the market for a while."

Ma Yuan Yuan pointed out that "although the price of zhengmian has been rising and breaking through 20000 yuan per ton, the price reflects the basic situation, which is still within a reasonable scope."

The Standing Committee of the China Cotton Association held that the current cotton price is a reflection of the normal supply and demand relationship, which is conducive to increasing the income of cotton farmers and stabilizing the cotton planting area next year.

However, the process of high cotton prices is also a process of risk concentration.

China Cotton Association pointed out that high cotton prices mean high risks to cotton enterprises and textile enterprises.

There are still many uncertainties in the new cotton market.

"High cotton prices are already changing the industrial chain of cotton textile industry, cotton prices are rising, cotton yarn and grey cloth prices will rise, textile and garment enterprises will face higher costs, but because of the huge profits of the garment industry, they can squeeze, and the impact on terminal consumption is still small.

However, if cotton prices continue to rise, it will inevitably affect the profit model of garment enterprises, break the industry's high profits and curb terminal consumption, thus affecting the demand for raw materials for textile and service enterprises.

Dong Shuzhi said.

However, analysts believe that the current price support of Zheng cotton is still relatively strong, and short-term cotton prices will remain high.

Dong Shuzhi predicted that Zheng cotton will oscillate between 19000 and 21000 yuan per ton.

Ma Yuan Yuan said that the pattern of tight supply and demand at home and abroad has helped to form more support for cotton prices.

From the perspective of technology, Zheng cotton futures are still in a healthy rising channel.

But market participants have warned that new cotton will be listed on the market in October, when cotton prices will fall back, and investors will not catch up in the callback.