August Survey: China'S Bolling, Bolting And Output Forecast In 2010

Monitoring objects: 13 cotton producing provinces, cities and districts, 2641 cotton growers.

In 2010 8-9, cotton cotton farmers cooperative association of China Cotton Association and Xinjiang Huatai Cotton Professional Cooperative respectively carried out the investigation of boll, boll opening, disaster and yield of 2641 cotton farmers in 12 provinces in the mainland and 310 counties (cities and regiments) in Xinjiang autonomous region.

According to the survey results, in August, most of the cotton in the country was blooming to crack and boll opening period. There were sporadic spots in some areas at the end of the month. The total time of the whole country was 10 days longer than in previous years.

The cotton growing area in the the Yellow River River Basin has been exposed to continuous rain and litter. The cotton growth has been affected, and some areas have been severely affected. The area has been cut down and the harvest area has been reduced.

The cotton bolls and shedding increased in some cotton regions of the Yangtze River Basin, and the yield per unit area decreased slightly.

The overall light and temperature conditions in Northwest China are suitable for cotton bolting, and the yield per unit area is expected to increase slightly.

Affected by the disasters in the the Yellow River River Basin, the total output and output per unit area in August were slightly lower than those in July.

According to the weighted average cotton planting area of cotton farmers surveyed, the cotton planting area was 76 million 940 thousand mu in 2010, down 1.1% from the previous year.

As of August, the national average output per unit area was 87.1 kg / mu, which was 3.3 kg / mu less than expected last month, a decrease of 0.4% from last year, with a total output of 6 million 700 thousand tons, a decrease of 260 thousand tons from the previous month, a decrease of 1.5% over the previous year.

In the the Yellow River basin, there were more precipitation and less sunshine in August, and most of the cotton areas were covered with heavy rain. Some areas suffered heavy rainfall and severe floods occurred in some areas. The previous harvest situation was reversed. Most of the provinces had a lower forecast of unit production than the previous period, especially in Shandong. The average sunshine hours in that month were the lowest in the past 50 years.

Due to continuous rain, waterlogging, prolonged water accumulation and strong wind and hail in some cotton fields in the river basin resulted in more serious buds and Bolls in the cotton fields. The peach was mildew and rotten at the bottom. According to the investigation, the ratio of falling to the bud and falling bud reached 16.5%, and the proportion of rotten peach was 16.8%. Among them, Shandong dropped the bell and dropped the bud 22%, and rotten peach 20%.

The number of flowers and bolls was less than that of the same period last year, and the boll opening period was postponed.

By the end of August, the average cotton and boll ratio of each plant was 80.7%, 7 percentage points decreased compared to the same period, 11.8%, 2.5 percentage points, 7.6%, and 3.5 percentage points higher than the same period.

8 the weather improved slightly in the middle and late part of the month. However, due to the high temperature and humidity in the early stage, some cotton fields showed premature decay and death.

Only 27% of the surveyed cotton growers thought the growth was better, 45 percentage points lower than the previous month. 45% thought the growth was bad, which increased 28 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the 77% cotton growers in Shandong thought the growth was bad, contrary to last month.

Although meteorological disasters are serious, the occurrence of pests and diseases is generally lighter than in previous years. 87% of the survey households showed that the disease was relatively light, and 80% of the survey households showed that the pests were less serious.

The Yangtze River Basin

Except for rainstorms and floods in some areas in August, most of Xinjiang's cotton growing areas are more suitable for light and warm water conditions, which generally benefit the growth and development of cotton.

Affected by natural disasters such as low temperature and rainstorm, cotton boll opening is generally delayed than in previous years. Only in Turpan and Hami areas, due to higher temperature and early sowing, it has entered the picking period. Most of the rest of the cotton area began to float on the 5-10 day of September. It is expected that a large number of bolls will be delayed until September 25th.

This year, the overall growth of Xinjiang cotton is better, but there is a big gap between the regions. The northern Xinjiang region is affected by low temperature and rainy weather in mid August. The cotton growth cycle is prolonged, and the boll opening period is postponed for 15-20 days.

Xinjiang cotton has gradually entered the harvest period. This year, the regiment picked up a good situation. There are two main reasons: first, the decline of cotton planting area and the reduction of demand for flower workers; two, the delayed maturity of cotton, and the harvest of other crops, and the workers have time to pick.

And local pick up workers are relatively scarce. After the "seven / five" incident, Xinjiang flower picking workers need to handle temporary residence permits and other procedures. Some mainland flower pickup workers are reluctant to enter Xinjiang.

At present, the price of flower picking is mainly 1.5-1.6 yuan / kg, and the shortage area reaches 1.8 yuan / kg.

From the end of August to the beginning of September, sporadic cotton seeds were listed in Turpan and Hami areas in the eastern part of Xinjiang, and the seed cotton price of 40% lint was around 8.05 yuan / kg.