With the above statement and resumption schedule given, international oil prices fell sharply, and 18 polyester futures fell across the board.

In the short term, if the expectation is no longer changing, the continuation of the PTA and ethylene glycol prices is a big probability event, but in the future, we should go back to their basic fundamentals, that is, the demand for cash in the peak season.

Where will the oil price go after the ups and downs?

Big ups and downs in oil prices have confused major polyester manufacturers and weavers. What is the future trend of oil prices? Is everyone in a dilemma again?

For the future of the crude oil market, there are still big differences between the long and short sides, but most analysts give a relatively dim tone. And the more consistent view among them is that In a month or even two to three weeks, oil prices will be reduced by the "event" factor of Saudi Arabia unless the situation worsens.

In fact, in the medium and long term, the Saudi Arabian incident has no substantial impact on the supply-demand relationship of crude oil. Before this incident, although the whole crude oil market maintained a reduction in production at the supply level, the demand level was facing the pressure of global economic downturn and falling demand. Therefore, crude oil has always been in a relatively abundant supply side. The supply shortage caused by this incident can be made up in the short term.

The first is that Saudi Arabia regains its capacity. If this does not work, there are two other things that could happen: the United States releases its reserve capacity and other oil-producing countries increase production. The "rebalancing" of the crude oil market is expected to have only a temporary impact, with an impact period of less than a month or even shorter, and will not affect the prospects of crude oil supply and demand. Judging from the surrounding assets, the volatility of gold and Canadian dollar is not large, which reflects that the basic fundamentals of the crude oil market have not changed much.

PTA, ethylene glycol trembling?

The oil price is down this time, and the rate will probably blow up the polyester products that soared two days ago. Judging from the state of supply and demand, the international oil price in the future still lacks the basis for a substantial increase. It is hard to usher in the dawn of ethylene glycol and PTA.

Market researchers can also find that most textile practitioners believe that the market of PTA, ethylene glycol and polyester filament is short-term. It is a chain reaction driven by cost side.

Back to the fundamentals, in the long run, in terms of current market start-up, both PTA factories and polyester factories are at a high level, and supply pressures are still increasing. On the PTA side, the overhaul of Dachang has not been implemented yet. The new supply capacity of the new Feng Ming, Hengli and Xinjiang Zhongtai industries is expected to increase or increase in the future. In the final analysis, the focus is still on the terminal market. If the downstream weaving and garment industry fails to get a fundamental improvement in time, the demand side can not be improved, which naturally will have a restrictive effect on the polyester industry chain.

Polyester Market: supply and demand pattern is still the focus

In fact, in recent times, before the "black swan incident", international oil prices have been showing a weak shock pattern, and the recent surge and fall are driven by emotions.

Polyester filament market can continue to pull up, whether the production and marketing volume, and ultimately is still determined by demand. Looking forward to the next "golden nine silver ten", there will be more market, so that the textile market is more stirring. Source: China Securities Journal and China silk net