Expert Analysis: The Impact Of RMB Appreciation On Chemical Fiber Textile Industry

In the international crude oil market, China's increasing import volume has always been an important factor in international hot money speculation.

The appreciation of the renminbi is nothing less than the depreciation of the US dollar, while crude oil is priced in US dollars.

Therefore, the appreciation of RMB will have a direct and beneficial impact on international crude oil prices, and reduce the cost of China's crude oil imports. The benefits will be mainly intercepted by monopolistic circulation and production links, as well as the pfer pricing strategy of multinational companies, while the benefits of the lower reaches are very limited.

First, from the chemical fiber industry itself, it directly affects exports; two, from the downstream enterprises of the textile and chemical enterprises downstream of yarn, fabric and clothing exports to Europe and the United States, because these enterprises are panic about the recent rapid appreciation of the renminbi, they will only receive small orders or stop completely, making the demand for chemical fiber products down sharply, and the chemical fiber enterprises will naturally be indirectly affected.

If enterprises use the method of raising prices to shift the pressure of RMB appreciation, they may backfire.

Because the export products of chemical fiber industry are mainly consumer goods and are not monopolized by oil and other industries, the price increase of enterprises is easy to be forced by the buyers. Even if they can raise prices slightly, there are not many foreign customers who can accept the raise price.

Overall, the yuan rose by 2.5%.

The specific impact of RMB appreciation on chemical fiber textile industry is as follows

1, profit impact

China is currently the leader of the world's textile giants. Under the influence of the international financial crisis, not only the export has declined, but also the pressure of RMB exchange rate appreciation has made the traditional export industry difficult.

In the first half of the year, a senior industry veteran admitted that China's textile industry, generally speaking, the current product profit is around 5%, which is still relatively good, most of which can be controlled at 3%.

If RMB appreciation is 1% now, nearly 20% of the enterprises have reached the extreme point of the profit balance point.

If the renminbi appreciates by 5%, he estimates that more than half of the enterprises are facing bankruptcy.

Second, the appreciation of the renminbi has weakened the export competitiveness of textile products.

In the case of RMB appreciation, the relative price of China's textile products in the international market has increased, and it has become more difficult to sign the bill with foreign merchants. The export sales revenue has declined, leading to some export enterprises turning to domestic sales, thus aggravating the competition of domestic textile enterprises.

At the same time, the rise in prices has also led to the loss of orders.

At present, many foreign orders have been sent to rival countries such as Vietnam, Kampuchea and India.

2, export impact

In 2009, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 171 billion 332 million US dollars, accounting for 14.26% of the total export volume of our country. The textile industry, as an obvious competitive industry with international competitive advantages, has always been an important part of China's exports of goods. The stability of the RMB exchange rate is particularly important for the growth of textile exports.

In the first half of this year, the Ministry of Commerce made a stress test of RMB appreciation.

The results show that the RMB appreciation will be 1 percentage points while the cost and price of other production factors remain unchanged, and the profits of textile and garment export enterprises will also be reduced by 1%.

Exchange rate losses are rigid losses, and can not be digested through consultation with customers and improvement of supply chain management.

3, employment impact

China last year

Five, forecast and Prospect

The rapid appreciation of the renminbi is like throwing an atomic bomb into the industry. Its influence is long, and the scope of its lethality will be far-reaching.

China's current exchange rate trend is more or less the shadow of Japan, Germany, Japan and Germany when the world economic crisis broke out in 1929. During the 1920-1929 years of the great depression, European and American countries dumped commodities to Japan in the form of currency devaluation. At that time, the Japanese yen did not appreciate, which has led to a large number of domestic commodities stagflation and directly destroyed the productivity of their own country. I think the Japanese example is worthy of China's aftertaste.

Personally, the exchange rate of any country should be interactive.

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Back to the present, with the deepening of the RMB exchange rate reform and the impact of political pressure and financial game by the European and American countries, the fourth quarter RMB exchange rate will gradually increase in stalemate and repeated trials. By the end of the year, it is very likely to touch the 6.55-6.60 pass, and the total annual increase will exceed 3%.

People in the industry should have a mental preparation ahead of schedule.

In short, in the textile industry has just emerged to recover, there are still many difficulties and pressures to deal with the critical period, the state should maintain the RMB exchange rate basically stable, even if it should be appreciated, it should be slow gradual, and give the enterprise a gradual digestion of bad time.

This will help to alleviate various pressures faced by the textile industry, ensure that the real economy will not be seriously affected, and will also maintain the international competitiveness of textile products, consolidate China's share in the international market, stabilize social full employment, and consolidate the economic foundation of the textile industry and even the recovery of the entire national economy.