Hu Jinlu: Weak Data To Stop Non US Gains
Yesterday's market review:
dollar
Yesterday's opening 79.84, the highest 80.14, the lowest 79.72, and finally closed at 80.12, K-line received a small rebound in the shock line.
Yesterday, the US dollar undertook the weak trend of the day before the Asian Pacific stock market stabilised in Asia, and in the eurozone, a series of bad data in the eurozone led to the rapid decline of European stock markets, the weakening of risk preference and the fall of non US currencies.
Since the start of the European era, the purchasing managers' index of the service sector and manufacturing sector in Germany and the euro area in September has dropped sharply, far below expectations.
Then came the recent second quarter GDP quarterly decline in Ireland, which was the worst quarter of the EU's involvement.
Weak data weakens confidence in the euro zone's economic recovery in the second half of this year, making investors who have been optimistic about the European economy have been hit recently. Before the data were released, European stock markets opened 1% higher, and after the data came out, they fell to around 1%.
Commodity currency
Dragged down.
In the US, in the early morning, the number of jobless claims released earlier this week was higher than expected, and the US shares also weakened slightly. But then, in the favorable housing sales and leading indicators, the US stocks fell to a higher level, and the non US currencies stabilized, but the market continued to fall, and the US dollar also continued to rebound in the late afternoon.
Yesterday, the foreign exchange trend basically followed the guidelines of basic data, and today we can still pay attention to the relevant data guidelines.
Fundamental analysis
There were fewer data in Asia yesterday, in Europe.
Germany
In September, the composite purchasing managers' index decreased from 58.4 to 54.8, of which the service purchasing managers' index was 54.6, 57.2 was expected, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 55.3, and the expected no 57.6. In September, the comprehensive purchasing managers' index in the euro area decreased from 56.2 to 53.8. The expected value is 55.9, of which the service purchasing managers' index is 53.6, and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index is 53.6, which is expected to be 53.6.
Weak data dragged down the euro's downgrade.
Subsequently, the second quarter GDP rate dropped by 1.2% in Ireland, and the annualized rate dropped by 1.8%. This is the weakest quarter since joining the European Union. European stocks rose from 1% to 1%.
In the US time period, the number of unemployed Jin people released by the United States last week was 465 thousand, higher than the expected 450 thousand, and the number of unemployed Jin people was 4 million 489 thousand, which was higher than the expected 4 million 480 thousand.
However, the subsequent sale of August was 4 million 130 thousand, higher than the expected 4 million 100 thousand, the sales month rate was 7.6%, and the expected sales rate was 7.1%. In August, the leading monthly rate of the consultative chamber was 0.3%, with 0.1% expected.
Today, investors can focus on the German IFO business expectations index. The US durable goods orders month rate and new home sales in August will directly affect the trend of short-term non US currencies.
Technical aspect analysis
US dollar index: stand back above 80 integer, pay attention to whether it can stabilize.
The dollar began trading in Europe yesterday, worse than expected, especially in the second quarter of Ireland, especially in the fall of the first quarter of the year, when it fell into a recession and depressed the risk sentiment. Then, during the US session, US stocks rose and rebounded under the leading indicators of the us good home sales, but there was no U-turn. When the US stocks resumed their fall, they continued to rally upward, and the short-term stability was above 80. Instead of the US dollar, the short-term rise was too fast and accumulated more profit pressure. Besides, the short-term technical indicators were seriously overbought, which gave the us a chance to breathe, but the short-term trend is still guided by basic data.
At present, the short term focuses on resistance position 80.30 and 80.50, supporting position 80 and 79.70.
EUR / USD: high, but strong pattern has not yet been reversed.
The euro yesterday dropped sharply in Germany and the eurozone in September.
In addition, the Irish GDP, which has recently been talked about by the market, has turned into a recession. In the second quarter, the GDP quarter rate dropped by 1.2%, and the annualized rate dropped by 1.8%. In the worst quarter since joining the European Union, the euro has been reduced by this pressure, and the short-term technical indicators have been recuperating downward. However, the trend of Eurodollar technology is still strong.
The short line resistance at the top is 1.3410 and 1.3500 respectively.
The underside supports are below 1.3265 and 1.3170 respectively.
Sterling / dollar: high ranking, is expected to continue to rush.
Sterling yesterday's unfavorable data in Europe under the pressure of the euro dragged down slightly, but little impact yesterday, the most vulnerable yesterday, in the New York period, by the United States good housing sales and leading indicators to boost the capital market, the pound rose to a higher level, broke through the recent high point, rushed to 1.5740, and then in the stock market and the impact of commodity downgrading adjustment from the high downlink adjustment, short line support is still strong, in the absence of data to suppress, the pound may still maintain strong, short and medium term technical indicators are still upward.
Pay attention to today's data guide.
At present, the upper resistance is 1.5690 and 1.5770 respectively, and the underside supports are 1.5600 and 1.5530 respectively.
AUD / USD: high level down, but short term is still dominated by high consolidation.
The Australian dollar was strongly boosted by the Asian Pacific stock market stabilization yesterday. However, the European market was dragged down by the European stock market, and the commodity suffered setbacks. The Australian dollar fell sharply and fell to 0.9466 place. Then, during the US session, the US dollar was stabilized and rebounded after the US housing sales and leading indicators boosted the rebound of commodities. But then the risk assets did not continue to go up and down.
At present, the short line resistance above is near 0.9585 and 0.9670 respectively.
The underside support is below 0.9450,0.9350.
USD / JPY: after stabilization, it is expected to continue to rebound upward.
The US dollar against the Japanese yen yesterday stabilised in the wake of the rally of 50%. However, the Japanese central bank and the Ministry of finance did not have the relevant actions and speeches recently. The yen gradually rebounded. But last week, the market showed that the Japanese Treasury still retained more intervention funds and did not exclude the possibility of further intervention, while the US dollar rebounded higher than the general yen.
At present, the short line resistance at the top is 85 and 85.50 respectively, and the short line support below is 84.20 and 83.80 respectively.
Gold: high level consolidation, the upward pattern is in good condition, and the short term will continue to expand.
Gold yesterday basically followed the trend of commodities, especially metals, and maintained a high and small pattern of finishing, maintaining less than 10 U.S. dollars in the whole day, although the impact of the European stock market downturn has been adjusted, but the short-term support has been intact, and the US has resumed its upward trend in the us period. However, with the stock market falling down, gold failed to break through the uplink support and become a high level stabilization and consolidation, but the strength remained.
At present, the short line resistance level above is 1300 and 1308 respectively.
The short supporting positions below are 1286 and 1278 respectively.
Focus on data news today
16:00 German IFO business expectations index September
20:30 US durable goods orders monthly rate August
22:00 us new home sales in August
22:00 us new house sales month rate August
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