How To Settle The Recent "Abnormal Movement" Phenomenon Of Cotton Prices?

The state will continue to put in 400 thousand tons of national cotton reserves.

On the occasion of the 10 year high cotton price index in China, in September 27th, the national cotton working teleconference was convened at the national development and Reform Commission.

In the meeting held jointly by the seven departments of the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of agriculture, the State Administration of industry and commerce, the State General Administration of quality supervision and quarantine, the China national supply and marketing cooperative and the China Agricultural Development Bank, whether the recent "abnormal movement" phenomenon of cotton prices has continued and whether the domestic cotton supply and demand balance in 2010 has become the focus of the meeting.

Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, pointed out that there is a great relationship between the fluctuation of cotton prices and speculation in the market. The rise of cotton prices in the domestic market from the fundamentals of supply and demand is not sustainable.

From the downstream situation, l~8 months of this year.

Judging from the cotton production situation, the latest findings of the agricultural sector show that the cotton planting area in the whole country is basically the same as last year.

On the one hand, due to the widespread low temperature weather in the main cotton producing areas in the first half of the year, cotton growth is slow and the overall growth is worse than the whole year.

On the other hand, disastrous weather in some areas in recent years has a certain effect on cotton growth.

Affected by the weather, the new cotton market will be released in mid October, 10~20 days later than usual.

If the climate is normal in the late period, the total cotton output will decrease slightly over the previous year.

Reporters learned from the China Cotton Association that in the afternoon of September 26th, the state departments concerned urgently announced that 400 thousand tons of state cotton should be put into the auction by auction, so as to ease the shortage of new cotton due to weather factors.

From the demand point of view, due to the rising trend of world economy, China's textile demand market will keep growing in 2010, but the growth rate may slow down.

Overall, cotton demand in the new year will continue to grow, but the growth rate will slow down, and domestic cotton production and demand gap is slightly larger than the previous year.

Although there is a big gap in cotton production and demand in China, there is a certain pressure to ensure the supply of cotton, but Zhang Xiaoqiang believes that through effective utilization of international market resources and good reserve regulation, the balance of domestic cotton supply and demand can be maintained.

According to the latest forecast of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), the major cotton producing countries such as the United States, India and Brazil increased substantially in 2010, and the global cotton output reached 25 million 110 thousand tons, an increase of 3 million 360 thousand tons over the previous year, 25 million 70 thousand tons of consumption, an increase of 470 thousand tons over the previous year, and 8 million 460 thousand tons of export resources, an increase of 750 thousand tons over the previous year.

The international cotton market is basically balanced in terms of production and demand, and the supply and demand situation has improved over the previous year. Through proper increase in imports, it can meet the needs of domestic textile enterprises.

In addition, the national reserve also has a certain stock, which can be put in time when the market needs.

At the same time, Zhang Xiaoqiang stressed: "we should have a full estimation of the difficulties in maintaining the domestic cotton market in the new year."

On the one hand, the initial inventory of international cotton in the year 2010 decreased by 2 million 810 thousand tons compared with the previous year. The supply and demand situation is still in a tight balance. On the other hand, there is still a period of time for domestic cotton to be listed in large quantities.

Affected by the increase of cotton planting costs, expansion of production and demand gap and the increase of other agricultural products prices, the cotton price in the domestic market in the new year is slightly higher than that in the previous year, but the excessive excessive increase in cotton prices in the short term implies greater market risk.

In view of the complexity of the cotton market in 2010 and the difficulty of its work, all the participating departments have come up with a response plan.

Among them, the NDRC will focus on ensuring the basic balance between supply and demand of cotton and promoting the steady development of cotton production. We should protect the interests of cotton farmers, protect cotton demand, stabilize market cotton prices, standardize circulation order, prevent and control operational risks, and deepen quality inspection reform as the main task of cotton work in the new year. The Ministry of finance will substantially increase the subsidy funds for cotton seed subsidy, increase the support funds for cotton production subsidy and cotton premium premiums, continue to stabilize the cotton slip tax policy, arrange special funds to support the cotton quality inspection system reform, and increase the subsidy for Xinjiang cotton and cotton yarn freight; the Agricultural Development Bank of China will conscientiously fulfill the credit support function of the Agricultural Development Bank, and earnestly do a good job in the supply of cotton purchasing funds.