Reasons For "Diagnosis" Of Cotton Prices Rising

Previously, the 25 national cotton trading market electronic matching.

At the same time, the China cotton reserve management company sold cotton reserves for two consecutive days (25, 26 days) after the holidays, selling more than 20 thousand tons on a single day, and prices continued to maintain a rapid upward trend before the holiday. Of them, the reserve cotton price increased by 1747 yuan per ton compared with the first quarter, and the annulus rate rose the most this year.

In fact, cotton prices have started to rise since August.

Taking reserve cotton as an example, the average paction price has risen from less than 17 thousand yuan per tonne in the middle of August to more than 22 thousand yuan per ton at present. Since mid September, the average price has increased rapidly. The standard price of cotton per ton of cotton has increased by 927 yuan, 900 yuan, 636 yuan and 1747 yuan in the last four trading days compared with the previous day.

The rise of cotton prices has also been reflected in many upstream and downstream links such as cotton purchase.

According to the information released by the Central Cotton store, the price of domestic seed cotton has been rising continuously, and the price of lint cotton has risen rapidly, and has been pmitted to yarn and cloth links. According to the information collected by Xinhua correspondents from various places, the purchasing price of some cotton main producing areas has risen significantly, taking Xinjiang Hami as an example.

It is worth noting that at present, some textile enterprises are unable to bear the current high cotton price and begin to suspend production and leave. Cotton yarn prices are still at a high level, but the downstream businesses are buying on demand, with insufficient volume, and the market wait-and-see mentality is increasing, and the harm of soaring cotton prices has gradually emerged.

Many people in the industry attributed the rise in cotton prices to cotton supply and demand.

On the one hand, due to weather factors, cotton picking has been postponed, the quality has declined, and India has suspended cotton exports for a while. On the other hand, the demand for cotton textile products at home and abroad is booming. In the first 8 months, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 23.8% over the same period last year, leading some market participants to think that cotton supply and demand will be reduced to the direction of inventory reduction in the coming year.

However, some analysts pointed out that capital is the key factor to drive the cotton price soaring.

Domestic cotton has always been skyrocketing and plummeting. The key reason is that some processing areas, circulation areas and cotton textile enterprises always expect low price hoarding of cotton to make profits, causing sharp changes in the inventory of enterprises and society, resulting in a sharp rise and fall in cotton prices.

Zhang Bin, an analyst of state textile securities, which keeps track of cotton textile industry, pointed out that this year's funds not only involved in cotton speculation in the past years are still in existence, but also new funds have been added. Obviously, some funds have been stockpiling goods through the spot market, and have gained huge profits in the futures market.

"Under the so-called market expectations and capital participation, the soaring cotton prices become inevitable."

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Many industry insiders pointed out in an interview with reporters.

On the one hand, if cotton prices go up further, the upward pressure will soon be pmitted to the downstream textile and garment industry. The rise in clothing prices is unavoidable. When the global economy has not yet recovered, the textile and garment industry will inevitably be damaged. On the other hand, if the cotton price rises sharply and then falls sharply, the harm will be even more difficult to predict. Before the cotton price stabilizes, the efficiency of cotton spinning enterprises is likely to decrease significantly.

Statistics show that from 2003 to 2004, the price of cotton had a sharp rise. It rose from 12 thousand yuan per ton to 18 thousand yuan in half a year and fell to 10 thousand yuan in six months. Meanwhile, a large amount of loss occurred shortly after the establishment of the Sino cotton storage company.

Zhang Bin said that cotton has already possessed certain financial attributes, and its role in promoting its price is huge. It is expected that the difficulty of cotton prices will be further increased. At present, cotton prices are in the top area. However, considering that a large number of new cotton will only be available in mid 10 months, the possibility of "cotton prices going crazy" will be great.

The rapid rise of cotton prices has aroused concern and attention from relevant parties.

China Cotton Textile Industry Association held a meeting on 18, to discuss the current market situation of cotton raw materials and the problems faced by the textile and garment industry.

And the national cotton development teleconference held by the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of agriculture, the General Administration of industry and commerce, the General Administration of quality supervision, inspection and quarantine, the supply and Marketing Corporation and the Agricultural Development Bank were also held on 27. In addition to analyzing the current cotton production and marketing situation, the conference will also study and deploy the 2010 cotton work.