Cotton Prices Rose Sharply To Drive PTA Strong

After the first trading day after the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the domestic PTA futures continued to strong upward after the high jump. The main 1101 contract delivery interval was between 8082-8284 yuan / ton, and the final closing price was 8260 yuan / ton, or 3.69%, and the market turnover and position increased significantly. On Tuesday, it was at a high level. I believe that PTA futures is in the acceleration stage of the upward trend of oscillation.

The near future

The correlation between PTA and cotton is mainly reflected in the downstream of the two industry chain. PTA is mainly used for the production of polyester, polyester filament can be spun and woven separately, while polyester staple fiber is generally blended with cotton. The relative price of cotton and PTA directly affects the proportion of cotton in polyester and cotton.

Under normal circumstances, pure cotton products dominate the consumption of textiles, and this year

From the trend of parity between cotton and PTA, at the end of August

In the peak season of consumption, the upward trend of PTA remains unchanged.

As a raw material for textile and clothing, PTA consumes about two months ahead of clothing consumption.

At present, the peak of clothing consumption in autumn and winter is coming. PTA is in the peak season of consumption. Strong demand will continue for some time. This is the foundation of PTA futures prices going strong.

During the Mid Autumn Festival, the price of polyester market continues to be strong, and the price of polyester staple fiber has risen sharply. The mainstream quotation has risen to above 11000 yuan / ton, and some regions have reported 12000 yuan / ton, which has already surpassed the level of the beginning of the year. The price of polyester filament also rises rapidly, the price of FDY 50D /24F rises to 16800 yuan / ton, the price of DTY 150D/48F is 13000 yuan / ton, and the price of POY 150D/48F is 11600 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of polyester market, the price of staple fiber is faster than that of filament yarn, which is related to the high cotton price and the substitution effect of polyester on cotton.

The price increase of polyester products has a very significant effect on PTA. The price of domestic PTA spot has risen to 7900 yuan / ton, and the import volume has risen to 945 US dollars / ton.

Overall, the polyester market has been doing well in recent years and continues to provide good support for PTA futures.

In the early days, the power restriction policy of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other major polyester production bases inhibited the demand of PTA. Because of the rigid demand in the downstream textile and garment industry, the electricity restriction policy could not contain its demand for PTA, but it only played a delaying role.

At present, the electricity policy is coming to an end. In the short term, the demand for PTA in the polyester market has increased, which has also pushed the PTA price to a certain extent.

Higher price of upstream raw materials will bring support to PTA price.

Crude oil is located at the top of the PTA industrial chain, and the impact of its price trend on the trend of PTA can not be ignored.

At present, the peak of summer gasoline consumption in the United States has ended, and the peak season for heating oil demand has not yet arrived. The stock market in the US continues to increase.

{page_break}

As the Federal Reserve continues to maintain the federal funds rate unchanged in the 0-0.25% range, and reiterates that it will maintain interest rates at an ultra-low level for a long time and continue to maintain the policy of reusing the securities that are refunded by its securities, the US dollar continues to weaken and has fallen below the 80 mark.

The US dollar index showed a downward trend, which brought obvious support to international crude oil. Although faced with enormous inventory pressure, NYMEX's crude oil price rebounded again in the critical interval of 73-75 US dollars per barrel in recent months, which brought psychological boost to PTA futures price.

Not only the price of crude oil has provided directional guidance for PTA, but also the rising price of PX has provided impetus for the uplink of domestic PTA.

Asian PX prices have rebounded to $1040 / tonne from 830 US dollars / ton in mid July, while PX production profits have gradually recovered, while PTA production profits have dropped, but they remain at a higher level.

PX prices continue to rise, pushing up production costs of PTA, and to a certain extent, propelled PTA prices up.

Based on the above analysis, I believe that the price rise of downstream products is gradually being carried out to the upstream PTA market, and the latter is expected to continue to push up the price of PTA.

Technically, the price of the PTA main contract has reached the first target level of 8200 yuan / ton, and the next step can be seen as high as 8430 yuan / ton.

The current price is in the acceleration stage of the oscillation rising market. On the operation, it is suggested that investors should continue to maintain a long way of thinking, pay attention to the late trend of cotton prices and the change of PTA registered warehouse receipts, and pay attention to prevent the adverse effects of RMB appreciation on the textile and garment industry.

Due to the upcoming National Day holiday, investors should be cautious in their operation.